ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

In Laura it appears we have another Michael that will tear up the NW gulf coat. A powerful CAT 4 storm strengthening all the way up to landfall. NHC at their 5 pm advisory now makes Laura a CAT 5 storm at landfall with 150 mph winds near 2 am this morning. I see no reason to doubt their predictions. My prayers to all in the path and am hoping those that decided to stay behind are above the surge level in sturdy dwellings. I'm fearful many will decide to ride out the storm with the COVID pandemic. This storm appears to be another Michael or Katrina. In addition to the coastal surge impact, their will be hurricane force wind gusts well inland probably leading to massive power outages across a wide swath of east Tx/West La and even southern Arkansas.

Isn’t a cat 5 @ 156mph?

[GeneratorPower]

I think 170 to 180 mph on landfall

Unlikely at this point. Not enough time. 9/10 on favorable conditions but not 10/10.

[Beef Stew]

The amount of ongoing eyewall lightning is absurd. Recon can't get there fast enough.

[Steve]

Muggy and light winds here in Lake Charles. Two bands came through.

This parking garage on Lakeshore and Broad is one of two vehicle structures that can provide vehicle safety. There is a private garage next door that can also be used.

Tell any chasers they stopped letting them in. But I made friends with security and they will leave gate open this evening. Told them the chasers are good people.

Expecting 10-15 ft of water at this garage. It is 60 ft tall.

Many people chose not to leave all around here. This is going to be deadly as we know.

Chuck

Anyone give a reason why they chose to ride it out? It’s just foolish. I hope they don’t have children

It's a very isolated area. People are super nice but can be stubborn. I've been to Hackberry (used to be world famous gun shooter/marksman club) and Cameron and all. Most of it is swamp and marsh. You have some towns you can see on google earth/maps or whatever. But a lot of people have camps remote properties. I don't know how many of that parish's 6,000 residents stayed. But some caught in the surge probably will never even be found. It's unfortunate. Then again, lots of people have boats, probably most everybody. So for those who stayed, they may have a very small last chance to make it out once things get bad. It'll be the only way out of some of those areas already.

[us89]

In Laura it appears we have another Michael that will tear up the NW gulf coat. A powerful CAT 4 storm strengthening all the way up to landfall. NHC at their 5 pm advisory now makes Laura a CAT 5 storm at landfall with 150 mph winds near 2 am this morning. I see no reason to doubt their predictions. My prayers to all in the path and am hoping those that decided to stay behind are above the surge level in sturdy dwellings. I'm fearful many will decide to ride out the storm with the COVID pandemic. This storm appears to be another Michael or Katrina. In addition to the coastal surge impact, their will be hurricane force wind gusts well inland probably leading to massive power outages across a wide swath of east Tx/West La and even southern Arkansas.

Isn’t a cat 5 @ 156mph?

157, but in effect it's 160 as NHC issues advisories in 5 kt increments, then rounded to the nearest 5 mph.

Highest explicitly forecast value right now is 150 mph.

[wkwally]

I hate to sound grim but those chasing in Cameron and riding out this storm need to get a sharpie and write their name and SSI number on their arms and legs.

[Raebie]

Can some post Rail Dawg's Twitter info, please and thank you?

[TallahasseeMan]

How much longer until recon arrives?

[Rail Dawg]

Chasing in Cameron is a death sentence.

There is nowhere to hide out here when chasing except where I am at right now.

If you are chasing and read this please come now to Lakeshore and Broad in Lake Charles. Now. You WILL have exit paths blocked by surge very soon.

Chuck

Already here at a garage nearby! Hope you fair well chaser dude!

You too chaser dude!

Chuck

[supercane4867]

Strong convection activity in the SW eyewall.

[MGC]

Power may be out for a month or two after this. Anyone who stays better be largely self sufficient for a long time.

Power was restored in three weeks after Katrina....water and gas in December because all the trees that were uprooted destroyed the water and gas lines......MGC

[Rail Dawg]

For those asking I just post here. No twitter or anything. Lots of chasers will have the awesome 4K videos. I just am here to watch and learn.

Chuck

[eastcoastFL]

In Laura it appears we have another Michael that will tear up the NW gulf coat. A powerful CAT 4 storm strengthening all the way up to landfall. NHC at their 5 pm advisory now makes Laura a CAT 5 storm at landfall with 150 mph winds near 2 am this morning. I see no reason to doubt their predictions. My prayers to all in the path and am hoping those that decided to stay behind are above the surge level in sturdy dwellings. I'm fearful many will decide to ride out the storm with the COVID pandemic. This storm appears to be another Michael or Katrina. In addition to the coastal surge impact, their will be hurricane force wind gusts well inland probably leading to massive power outages across a wide swath of east Tx/West La and even southern Arkansas.

Isn’t a cat 5 @ 156mph?

157, but in effect it's 160 as NHC issues advisories in 5 kt increments, then rounded to the nearest 5 mph.

Highest explicitly forecast value right now is 150 mph.

Ya I doubt it’ll officially get to a cat 5. Maybe in the after season report

[Ken711]

NHC mentions some shear and a eye wall replacement as the only impediments to possible weakening Laura a little. Hopefully everyone in Laura's path has prepared or evacuated safely.

[abajan]

In Laura it appears we have another Michael that will tear up the NW gulf coat. A powerful CAT 4 storm strengthening all the way up to landfall. NHC at their 5 pm advisory now makes Laura a CAT 5 storm at landfall with 150 mph winds near 2 am this morning. I see no reason to doubt their predictions. My prayers to all in the path and am hoping those that decided to stay behind are above the surge level in sturdy dwellings. I'm fearful many will decide to ride out the storm with the COVID pandemic. This storm appears to be another Michael or Katrina. In addition to the coastal surge impact, their will be hurricane force wind gusts well inland probably leading to massive power outages across a wide swath of east Tx/West La and even southern Arkansas.

They don’t actually explicitly call for a Cat 5 in the advisory.

Exactly. Cat 5 is 157 mph or higher, not 150 mph. Seems like every year people think a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or 155 mph is a Cat 5.

[abajan]

In Laura it appears we have another Michael that will tear up the NW gulf coat. A powerful CAT 4 storm strengthening all the way up to landfall. NHC at their 5 pm advisory now makes Laura a CAT 5 storm at landfall with 150 mph winds near 2 am this morning. I see no reason to doubt their predictions. My prayers to all in the path and am hoping those that decided to stay behind are above the surge level in sturdy dwellings. I'm fearful many will decide to ride out the storm with the COVID pandemic. This storm appears to be another Michael or Katrina. In addition to the coastal surge impact, their will be hurricane force wind gusts well inland probably leading to massive power outages across a wide swath of east Tx/West La and even southern Arkansas.

They don’t actually explicitly call for a Cat 5 in the advisory.

Exactly. Cat 5 is 157 mph or higher, not 150 mph. Seems like every year people think a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or 155 mph is a Cat 5.

[Syx6sic]

How much longer until recon arrives?

NOAA2 Mission #24 into LAURA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 22:11 UTC Aug 26, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 28.22°N 89.48°W
Bearing: 288° at 339 kt
Altitude: 5847 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 37 kt at 152°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

looks like starting to just hit the outer bands

[Raebie]

For those asking I just post here. No twitter or anything. Lots of chasers will have the awesome 4K videos. I just am here to watch and learn.

Chuck

What's your Twitter info?

[EquusStorm]

[Boutwas]

For those asking I just post here. No twitter or anything. Lots of chasers will have the awesome 4K videos. I just am here to watch and learn.

Chuck

What's your Twitter info?

He isn’t on Twitter - like he said - if he posts a video - it will be on this tread - which we all would appreciate!


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