ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

The nhc as usual has done a heck of a job with this storm and with almost no help from the models in the beginning.

Outstanding track forecast. Intensity...well many of the models weren't even that much help 72hrs ago to be fair, and other than the HWRF the models kinda busted outside of the last 48hrs.

Anyway recon should be punching the NE eyewall very soon. Next 2 sets of obs going to be very telling about where Laura is and its likelyhood of becoming a 5.

[DoctorMu]

Eye has been steady improving on WV imagery in the past few hours. Shades of orange now showing up.

https://i.imgur.com/DpDy6S8.gif

That looks like a turn to the eastern edge of the cone, possibly putting New Iberia, Abbeville, and Lafayette in play.

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon may be timing it’s pass through perfectly with a mesovort. Seeing radar velocities of 171mph

[Highteeld]

Wherever this makes landfall will be forever changed

[HurricaneEnzo]

Numbers still rising in higher levels of storm. Curious if recon will find increases in the lower levels

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[Beef Stew]

Interesting to see the eye in a square-like shape.

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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200826/dcf2a232bccd01881e140ed583420c22.jpg

Where have I seen that before? Oh right...

[supercane4867]

Interesting to see the eye in a square-like shape.

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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200826/dcf2a232bccd01881e140ed583420c22.jpg

Such phenomenon is caused by mesovortices rotating in the eyewall. See Michael hours before landfall. This is a sign of intensifying systems.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1050028700123713536

[northjaxpro]

It highlights how dreadful people are at risk assessment.

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

Didn't think I'd be seeing horrible covid takes but I'm not surprised I guess. A pandemic causing virus that's killed 170,000 people without the fall and winter months and it not having itself firmly established until later is waaay different than a powerful hurricane barreling towards the coast. How many people do you think die from hurricanes like Laura in the US? Michael thankfully hit a less populated area and killed 74 people but you think 170,000 people dying in 6 months just in the US is a better chance of survival than a powerful hurricane that most people can actually evacuate from? These types of takes shouldn't even be said during a storm like this imo but of course someone ends up saying it :\

Good but extremely sobering post. Just catastrosphic any way you look at this with both Laura and the COVID-19 pandemic, now over 180,000 COVID-19 related deaths now .

[Ken711]

NHC update:

6:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.2°N 92.9°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[ozonepete]

Interesting to see the eye in a square-like shape.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200826/cf79c1fa2e986ccd30c89f18b5866c22.jpg

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Hexagonal.

It looks pretty square but it's clearly going into a hexagonal config with multiple eyewall vortices developing. That is another terrible sign that it is still intensifying.

[eastcoastFL]

The nhc as usual has done a heck of a job with this storm and with almost no help from the models in the beginning.

Outstanding track forecast. Intensity...well many of the models weren't even that much help 72hrs ago to be fair, and other than the HWRF the models kinda busted outside of the last 48hrs.

Anyway recon should be punching the NE eyewall very soon. Next 2 sets of obs going to be very telling about where Laura is and its likelyhood of becoming a 5.

They’re never that great on intensity. I think intensity is still one of the great mysteries. They admit themselves that it’s very hard to forecast and that’s fine with me. The fact that they do so well with track is amazing especially with this storm. They said all along she would enter very favorable conditions and she sure did.

[jdjaguar]

It highlights how dreadful people are at risk assessment.

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

Didn't think I'd be seeing horrible covid takes but I'm not surprised I guess. A pandemic causing virus that's killed 170,000 people without the fall and winter months and it not having itself firmly established until later is waaay different than a powerful hurricane barreling towards the coast. How many people do you think die from hurricanes like Laura in the US? Michael thankfully hit a less populated area and killed 74 people but you think 170,000 people dying in 6 months just in the US is a better chance of survival than a powerful hurricane that most people can actually evacuate from? These types of takes shouldn't even be said during a storm like this imo but of course someone ends up saying it :\

Ok 99.50.

[Nimbus]

Wherever this makes landfall will be forever changed

https://i.imgur.com/S2AXvf8.png

And after landfall the wind energy of a hurricane with a large eye can spread out quickly and that is also hard to forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

Didn't think I'd be seeing horrible covid takes but I'm not surprised I guess. A pandemic causing virus that's killed 170,000 people without the fall and winter months and it not having itself firmly established until later is waaay different than a powerful hurricane barreling towards the coast. How many people do you think die from hurricanes like Laura in the US? Michael thankfully hit a less populated area and killed 74 people but you think 170,000 people dying in 6 months just in the US is a better chance of survival than a powerful hurricane that most people can actually evacuate from? These types of takes shouldn't even be said during a storm like this imo but of course someone ends up saying it :\

Good but extremely sobering post. Just catastrosphic any way you look at this with both Laura and the COVID-19 pandemic, now over 180,000 COVID-19 related deaths now .

It’s a case of bad and worse to choose from. Awful options

[wkwally]

It highlights how dreadful people are at risk assessment.

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

Didn't think I'd be seeing horrible covid takes but I'm not surprised I guess. A pandemic causing virus that's killed 170,000 people without the fall and winter months and it not having itself firmly established until later is waaay different than a powerful hurricane barreling towards the coast. How many people do you think die from hurricanes like Laura in the US? Michael thankfully hit a less populated area and killed 74 people but you think 170,000 people dying in 6 months just in the US is a better chance of survival than a powerful hurricane that most people can actually evacuate from? These types of takes shouldn't even be said during a storm like this imo but of course someone ends up saying it :\

I think the refrance is they would rather take the chance of COVID in a shelter that chance dying in the hurricane not that I would want either.

[Blizzard96x]

Seems to me the eye is shrinking a bit on IR a bit compared to a few hrs ago.

[Beef Stew]

133 SFMR unflagged

[FLpanhandle91]

133 knots unflagged. On the cusp. Wow.

[EquusStorm]

Covid is extraordinarily devastating for sure, but still, in places like Cameron and Holly Beach I think a shelter WITH proper precautions is still definitely safer than trying to brave a 20 foot storm surge; neither ideal, but the survival rate definitely speaks volumes given the incredible death tolls in this area from hurricanes like Audrey. In places far inland away from surge, definitely worth weighing options though.

[aspen]

I’m betting this pass supports 130 kt/940 mbar.

EDIT: and didn’t even realize Kermit already found winds up to 140 kt