ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ed_2001]

As bad as this already will be one of those days another storm like this will inevitably hit Houston, Corpus Cristi or New Orleans head on. Hope we are only going to get better at predicting and preparing for these intense hurricanes with every passing year.

[p1nheadlarry]

133 SFMR unflagged

Got the line? On mobile.

[supercane4867]

Looks like we will soon have our 5th consecutive year of CAT5s within the next hour or two.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

It highlights how dreadful people are at risk assessment.

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

Didn't think I'd be seeing horrible covid takes but I'm not surprised I guess. A pandemic causing virus that's killed 170,000 people without the fall and winter months and it not having itself firmly established until later is waaay different than a powerful hurricane barreling towards the coast. How many people do you think die from hurricanes like Laura in the US? Michael thankfully hit a less populated area and killed 74 people but you think 170,000 people dying in 6 months just in the US is a better chance of survival than a powerful hurricane that most people can actually evacuate from? These types of takes shouldn't even be said during a storm like this imo but of course someone ends up saying it :\

I concur with Hammie. Covid-19 has case fatality ratio ~3% in the U.S., and of course it's even higher (maybe even 15%+) for older, sick, and obese people. Unless we're talking about hurricanes before the age of satellites like the Galveston 1900 storm, I don't think there's many hurricanes that killed >=1-3% of the people in the places they hit.

It all hinges on what the a) the hazards you will get from the storm are and b) your probability of exposure to Covid-19. For me and my family, we decided the risk of Covid-19 infection was worse than the risk of leaving our (not storm-surge impacted) location.

The assessment is complicated.

[PavelGaborik10]

Good God she very well could do it....

[Beef Stew]

133 SFMR unflagged

Got the line? On mobile.

230100 2826N 09243W 6843 02904 9536 +140 //// 134116 127 133 055 01

[KWT]

Looks like 130kts based on that NE eyewall pass, 133kts was estimated at surface, so you could make a call at 135kts IF the dropsonde also comes out with something similar but for now 130kts looks reasonable.

[FLpanhandle91]

230100 2826N 09243W 6843 02904 9536 +140 //// 134116 127 133 055 01

[Highteeld]

Air force recon taking off now

[Kingarabian]

Very close to 135kts.

[FLpanhandle91]

Very possible that dropsonde drop will support cat 5. Additional AF plane otw.

[CrazyC83]

With just that data, 130 kt is the floor right now.

[Blizzard96x]

https://twitter.com/wdsu/status/1298734 ... 77856?s=09

[tropicwatch]

NHC update:

6:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.2°N 92.9°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Probably will be adjusted lower, kermit not in eye yet reporting 948.7.

[Hammy]

230100 2826N 09243W 6843 02904 9536 +140 //// 134116 127 133 055 01

Isn't that flagged because of the rain rate?

[KWT]

Very close to 135kts.

It is, much depends on what the dropsonde comes up with I suspect. Definitely enough for 130kts now, could make an argument for 135kts IF dropsonde comes in at a similar level to the surface estimate.

2nd plane could well also find enough to tip the balance in the next hour or two.

[Blown Away]

On the IR eye appears to have contracted and a due N wobble...

[AubreyStorm]

133 knots unflagged. On the cusp. Wow.

What does "unflagged" mean?

[Kingarabian]

230100 2826N 09243W 6843 02904 9536 +140 //// 134116 127 133 055 01

Isn't that flagged because of the rain rate?

But SFMR is up to 133kts so it's believable.

[Hammy]

133 knots unflagged. On the cusp. Wow.

What does "unflagged" mean?

It means the data isn't questionable--they'll flag things that might be due to the rain rate, or shoaling (too much sea foam), or things where the data might be bad for other reasons that I don't recall at the moment.