ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Very close to 135kts.

It is, much depends on what the dropsonde comes up with I suspect. Definitely enough for 130kts now, could make an argument for 135kts IF dropsonde comes in at a similar level to the surface estimate.

2nd plane could well also find enough to tip the balance in the next hour or two.

Agreed. Recon coming in at the right time.

[Hammy]

Very close to 135kts.

It is, much depends on what the dropsonde comes up with I suspect. Definitely enough for 130kts now, could make an argument for 135kts IF dropsonde comes in at a similar level to the surface estimate.

2nd plane could well also find enough to tip the balance in the next hour or two.

Agreed. Recon coming in at the right time.

When's it taking off and when should it arrive? It seems it's still on the runway.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wouldn't be surprised if the Air Force plane finds 140 knots when it gets there.

Very close to Category 5, with a few hours to go before landfall.

[Highteeld]

Extreme Rapid Intensification has likely occurred (defined by the JTWC as a 55 knot or more increase in 24 hours)

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298760652094345219

[Kingarabian]

It is, much depends on what the dropsonde comes up with I suspect. Definitely enough for 130kts now, could make an argument for 135kts IF dropsonde comes in at a similar level to the surface estimate.

2nd plane could well also find enough to tip the balance in the next hour or two.

Agreed. Recon coming in at the right time.

When's it taking off and when should it arrive? It seems it's still on the runway.

Looks like they just took off and the first interception should be in about 2 hours ish.

[supercane4867]

It would take a miracle for this to not breach CAT5 threshold now.

[eastcoastFL]

With just that data, 130 kt is the floor right now.

So again she’s well ahead of forecast. Unreal

[Raebie]

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

Didn't think I'd be seeing horrible covid takes but I'm not surprised I guess. A pandemic causing virus that's killed 170,000 people without the fall and winter months and it not having itself firmly established until later is waaay different than a powerful hurricane barreling towards the coast. How many people do you think die from hurricanes like Laura in the US? Michael thankfully hit a less populated area and killed 74 people but you think 170,000 people dying in 6 months just in the US is a better chance of survival than a powerful hurricane that most people can actually evacuate from? These types of takes shouldn't even be said during a storm like this imo but of course someone ends up saying it :\

I think the refrance is they would rather take the chance of COVID in a shelter that chance dying in the hurricane not that I would want either.

It was. The people citing covid as a reason not to evacuate are in the death zone. Those are the odds I'm referring to.

[dukeblue219]

Agreed. Recon coming in at the right time.

When's it taking off and when should it arrive? It seems it's still on the runway.

Looks like they just took off and the first interception should be in about 2 hours ish.

There's two active. One plane just made their first center pass.

[rigbyrigz]

Per Levi C minutes ago: recon in NE eyewall measured surface winds 150-155 MPH (nears Cat 5)

[GeneratorPower]

With just that data, 130 kt is the floor right now.

So again she’s well ahead of forecast. Unreal

Bigger problem is she is intensifying. An intensifying storm is much more destructive than a weakening storm of the same wind speed.

[FLpanhandle91]

937.4. Wow.

[Kingarabian]

When's it taking off and when should it arrive? It seems it's still on the runway.

Looks like they just took off and the first interception should be in about 2 hours ish.

There's two active. One plane just made their first center pass.

Yep talking about the AF plane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly, it's insane how much this feels like Hurricane Michael again.

[Kazmit]

Well, Laura has officially passed my prediction for a peak of 939 mbars.

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/wdsu/status/1298734018582777856?s=09

It hits home so I understand. We just had a micro mini band and I couldn’t even close my door with one hand. People gonna be people but the sounds of loud bangs, explosions, screams - it’s coming.

[syfr]

It was. The people citing covid as a reason not to evacuate are in the death zone. Those are the odds I'm referring to.

Your post was clear, and your point is a valid one! Maybe catching a virus from which there's a 99% chance of recovery, is NOT a good reason to stay in the path of a Cat 5 storm.

[Jag95]

NHC update:

6:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.2°N 92.9°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

extrap 937 now.

[Kingarabian]

ADT has been pretty beastly in accuracy. Although it is underdoing the winds but that's simply due to the scale.

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2020 Time : 222020 UTC
Lat : 28:07:47 N Lon : 92:53:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 929.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 30 km

Center Temp : +20.9C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF