ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I know this isn’t mentioned much. But I also feel so bad for the animals. They were showing someone on the weather channel reporting from Cameron and you could see dozens and dozens of cattle in the field, and just knowing they will probably all be dead by tomorrow at this time I’d very sad. Jim Cantore also mentioned the timber and cattle loss on his tweet as well

Speaking of that I hope the people that evacuated took all of their pets with them. It sounds nuts for them not to but there’s always a few that don’t. I almost didn’t evacuate last year because I couldn’t find a place for my dog to stay but I got lucky.

[beyokan]

Well, Laura has officially passed my prediction for a peak of 939 mbars.

Had to go back to the other thread and double-check my prediction. My 927mb is not looking too bad right now

I'm thinking high 920s low 930s, I went with 930 on the poll. What a beast of a storm man, I felt like I was overdoing it but at this rate it may end up dipping below 930 flat.

[supercane4867]

Watching WV rapidscan closely. Subsidence inside the eye has increased in the last few frames with darker orange starts to show.

[tailgater]

When is that damn shear suppose to kick in?

[GCANE]

Gravity waves in the CDO in all radial directions.
Strengthening on approach

[NDG]

Pressure down to 942mb, eye is contracting a little bit.

URNT12 KWBC 262330
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 26/23:04:29Z
B. 28.27 deg N 092.91 deg W
C. 700 MB 2625 m
D. 942 mb
E. 188 deg 18 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C24
H. 133 kt
I. 043 deg 15 nm 23:00:53Z
J. 125 deg 141 kt
K. 043 deg 17 nm 23:00:16Z
L. 106 kt
M. 217 deg 11 nm 23:07:16Z
N. 306 deg 112 kt
O. 216 deg 10 nm 23:07:13Z
P. 11 C / 3039 m
Q. 23 C / 3053 m
R. 6 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 2413A LAURA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 141 KT 043 / 17 NM 23:00:16Z

[FireRat]

Wowww this thing is a BEHEMOTH!!
I thought I was overdoing my prediction for Laura's peak (915 mb), and while it still may not get that low, it is closing in on CAT 5, which is just unreal. I really really hope those in the path of this storm, even those miles inland, evacuated. This is a disaster in the making, feels like Michael all over again, but in an even more vulnerable part of the GOM surge-wise.

[Blizzard96x]

I know this isn’t mentioned much. But I also feel so bad for the animals. They were showing someone on the weather channel reporting from Cameron and you could see dozens and dozens of cattle in the field, and just knowing they will probably all be dead by tomorrow at this time I’d very sad. Jim Cantore also mentioned the timber and cattle loss on his tweet as well

True, it's very saddening knowing that they have no idea what's about to hit them tonight and that they wont make it....

[wkwally]

At this point I do not think it matters if Laura is a 4 or 5. The devastion and loss of life I fear is going to be on a grand scale. I just hope most are out of the way and those who chose to stay will be safe.

[eastcoastFL]

Didn't think I'd be seeing horrible covid takes but I'm not surprised I guess. A pandemic causing virus that's killed 170,000 people without the fall and winter months and it not having itself firmly established until later is waaay different than a powerful hurricane barreling towards the coast. How many people do you think die from hurricanes like Laura in the US? Michael thankfully hit a less populated area and killed 74 people but you think 170,000 people dying in 6 months just in the US is a better chance of survival than a powerful hurricane that most people can actually evacuate from? These types of takes shouldn't even be said during a storm like this imo but of course someone ends up saying it :\

Good but extremely sobering post. Just catastrosphic any way you look at this with both Laura and the COVID-19 pandemic, now over 180,000 COVID-19 related deaths now .

I guess our interpretations of this post are quite different. I read this as “you should be much more scared of the storm than COVID 19”. Reason being...If you don’t evacuate from certain areas, almost guaranteed death. If you do evacuate and happen to get COVID, only 1/2% chance of death. I read this post as if you are better taking a chance with COVID because this storm is so deadly. How is that a horrible take? People need to evacuate!

I see it as If you’re on the coast Laura is coming no matter what. That is a guarantee and it’s going to be brutal. If you go to a shelter there’s no guarantee that you will contract the virus and if you take proper precautions and wear masks you have even less of a chance. So clearly it’s not worth it to stay.

[AubreyStorm]

It’s crazy that Laura is on the cusp of Category 5 intensity, and it still has like six hours over water

Just 2 hours ago the nhc has her over water for 12 more hours. I hope your prediction is closer

Another 12 hours? So, when it’s suppose makes landfall? Yizzzuuus

[ronjon]

The TWC Mike Bettis just said Recon reported 155 mph winds just now in the NE quad with intense lightning. Said intensity could be upgraded now to 150 or 155 mph.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde has 942mb, with an 18 knot wind.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Dropsonde measured 942mb with 18 knots of surface wind; pressure looks to be 940mb.

[shiny-pebble]

CDO cooling in the Northeast after warming some before

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[jdjaguar]

Good but extremely sobering post. Just catastrosphic any way you look at this with both Laura and the COVID-19 pandemic, now over 180,000 COVID-19 related deaths now .

I guess our interpretations of this post are quite different. I read this as “you should be much more scared of the storm than COVID 19”. Reason being...If you don’t evacuate from certain areas, almost guaranteed death. If you do evacuate and happen to get COVID, only 1/2% chance of death. I read this post as if you are better taking a chance with COVID because this storm is so deadly. How is that a horrible take? People need to evacuate!

I see it as If you’re on the coast Laura is coming no matter what. That is a guarantee and it’s going to be brutal. If you go to a shelter there’s no guarantee that you will contract the virus and if you take proper precautions and wear masks you have even less of a chance. So clearly it’s not worth it to stay.

Can we end this Covid tit for tat and stick to Laura?

[KWT]

Dropsonde has 942mb, with an 18 knot wind.

so 940mbs, still impressive high pressure considering just how high the winds are at the moment. Looks like the ECM will be in the right ballpark for pressure over its last 3 runs.

[GCANE]

VDM
942 mb
28.27N 92.91W
Cir Clsd Eye 24 nm wide
43% RH

No indication of EWRC Onset

[dukeblue219]

I wonder if they weren't able to make a dropsonde release in the eyewall, though if I recall, one of the two hunter types has a much higher dropsonde capacity that the other.

edit -- disregard, now it showed up

[Nimbus]

The emergancy alert on the TV just went off here in Humble and from what it looks like on Channel 11 my area is now under a Hurricane warning. However when I looked at the NWS map it is showing that we are still under a TS warning. Can anyone verify?

TXZ214-270700- /O.CON.KHGX.SS.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Chambers- 546 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until late Thursday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind greater than 110 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane force or higher. - PREPARE: Last minute efforts should solely focus on protecting life. The area remains subject to catastrophic wind damage. - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from life-threatening wind. Be ready to move to the safest place inside your shelter if necessary. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through Friday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above ground. - PREPARE: All ordered evacuations should be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from storm surge flooding. - ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture outside. Move to upper floors to escape rising water if necessary. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has decreased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible tornadoes. - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter if a tornado warning is issued. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. $$

Harris
Hurricane Warning

LAZ041>043-052-073-074-TXZ214>216-300-313-338-438-270500- /O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 358 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2020 $$
Hurricane Warning

TXZ313-270700- /O.CON.KHGX.SS.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Coastal Harris- 546 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through Friday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from storm surge flooding. - ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture outside. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has decreased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. $$

Some storm surge projections call for 10-15 foot storm surge south of the Beaumont area.

Portions of I-10 are likely to be under water.

Be safe!

Kham