ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6741 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:30 pm

KWT wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:133 knot unflagged. 137 knot flagged.

135kt is a good estimate for now. Just need to wait for the next few passes to get a unflagged reading.


Its exactly the same as the last pass, and so it probably won't on its own merit an upgrade given the last pass didn't. IF we get a dropsonde in that 132-135kts range though that probably shifts the balance enough.

Real close though, again you've got to think one of these passes will find the required winds.


Not in the same quadrant. That lass pass was in the northeastern part of the eyewall, this was in the northern part of the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6742 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:31 pm

Mesovort on radar in the NE quadrant. They could probably find cat 5 winds there right now
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6743 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:31 pm

HurricaneEdouard wrote:Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I do expect a Category 5 hurricane given these rapid pressure drops.

https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg

CIMSS shear map is not accurate for real-time reference. Maximum wind shear that Laura is currently experiencing is probably no more than 15-20kts.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6744 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:31 pm

If Laura stays fairly tightly wound up and makes landfall as a cat 4.9 in a relatively abandoned community it might be better than if the squall lines band outward quickly expanding the wind field over 100 miles.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6745 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:32 pm

HurricaneEdouard wrote:Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I do expect a Category 5 hurricane given these rapid pressure drops.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg[url]

This type of shear so long it remains away from the mid levels will enhance the system and its effects until it moves in land. Around then it'll start to get shredded.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6746 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:32 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
KWT wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:135kt is a good estimate for now. Just need to wait for the next few passes to get a unflagged reading.


Its exactly the same as the last pass, and so it probably won't on its own merit an upgrade given the last pass didn't. IF we get a dropsonde in that 132-135kts range though that probably shifts the balance enough.

Real close though, again you've got to think one of these passes will find the required winds.


Not in the same quadrant. That lass pass was in the northeastern part of the eyewall, this was in the northern part of the eyewall.


Given the convective strength currently in the hot tower out there, I doubt there is any real difference between that and the NE eyewall.

Certainly an argument could be made for 135kts, I won't deny that, but they didn't upgrade with the last 133kts, they may not with this one unless there is more evidence from a dropsonde that goes beyond 130kts.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6747 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:32 pm

Likely will be a cat 5 late tonight if the intensification continues. Shear is doing absolutely nothing to hinder intensification.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6748 Postby sphelps8681 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:33 pm

NWS out Lake Charles just said winds are now 150mph. Almost a cat 5. Not sure it makes a difference in the outcome.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6749 Postby rigbyrigz » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:33 pm

Very rare sight:

Lake Charles Local Weather (click on WIND, sustained)
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALe ... KcQ4dUDCA0

8PM: 37mph 11PM: 89mph 2AM: 129mph
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6750 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:33 pm

HurricaneEdouard wrote:Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I wouldn't be surprised if we just edge into Category 5 given these rapid pressure drops.

https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg


Matthew rapidly intensified under similar conditions.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6751 Postby sphelps8681 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:33 pm

NWS out Lake Charles just said winds are now 150mph. Almost a cat 5. Not sure it makes a difference in the outcome.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6752 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:33 pm

KWT wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
KWT wrote:
Its exactly the same as the last pass, and so it probably won't on its own merit an upgrade given the last pass didn't. IF we get a dropsonde in that 132-135kts range though that probably shifts the balance enough.

Real close though, again you've got to think one of these passes will find the required winds.


Not in the same quadrant. That lass pass was in the northeastern part of the eyewall, this was in the northern part of the eyewall.


Given the convective strength currently in the hot tower out there, I doubt there is any real difference between that and the NE eyewall.

Certainly an argument could be made for 135kts, I won't deny that, but they didn't upgrade with the last 133kts, they may not with this one unless there is more evidence from a dropsonde that goes beyond 130kts.


Yes, but radar has consistently shown the strongest winds are in the NE quadrant, regardless of the hot tower. That's where the strongest winds are going to be.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6753 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:34 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6754 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:34 pm

One more loop before sunset.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6755 Postby Horn1991 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:35 pm

NDG wrote:One more loop before sunset.

https://i.imgur.com/7nnAD8F.gif


Good lord man
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6756 Postby chaser1 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:35 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Last visible before sunset.

https://i.imgur.com/B29rvf3.png


Insane amazing to look at. The degree of organizational change and satellite presentation that has occured during the past 24 hours is unreal.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6757 Postby Michele B » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:35 pm

sponger wrote:
hicksta wrote:Anyone have a link to some storm chasers?



https://livestormchasing.com/map


I couldn't get any of these vids open
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6758 Postby Comanche » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:35 pm

Beef Stew wrote:I can only imagine what we're seeing now is akin to what we would've seen during the 1856 Last Island, 1886 Indianola, or 1932 Freeport Hurricanes if we had the technology then. Stunning.


Quick history of Indianola:

Indianola is a ghost town located on Matagorda Bay in Calhoun County, Texas, United States. The community, once the county seat of Calhoun County, is a part of the Victoria, Texas, Metropolitan Statistical Area. In 1875, the city had a population of 5,000, but on September 15 of that year, a powerful hurricane struck, killing between 150 and 300 and almost entirely destroying the town. Indianola was rebuilt, only to be wiped out on August 19, 1886, by another intense hurricane, which was followed by a fire. Indianola was designated a Recorded Texas Historic Landmark in 1963, marker number 2642.[1]
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6759 Postby wkwally » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:36 pm

Nimbus wrote:If Laura stays fairly tightly wound up and makes landfall as a cat 4.9 in a relatively abandoned community it might be better than if the squall lines band outward quickly expanding the wind field over 100 miles.

cat 4.9?????????????
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6760 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:36 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Yes, but radar has consistently shown the strongest winds are in the NE quadrant, regardless of the hot tower. That's where the strongest winds are going to be.


Lets just say I'd be surprised if one of the planes don't clock a 135kts legitimate wind report soon and make this totally academic. For now I just don't think 133kts will be enough based on what the NHC did with the last report of 133kts (they went with the dropsonde mix and went 130kts). If a dropsonde goes 135kts, or even to 132-135kts+ then I agree, they will then pull the trigger.
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