ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6821 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:01 pm

sweetpea wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
sweetpea wrote:
Yes he had to go to the bathroom. LOL


His stream and Jeff Piotrowski's are going to be nuts tonight.


I have them both up.


I’ve got them both up as well. The one in Cameron is gonna get nuts soon
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cfisher

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6823 Postby cfisher » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:02 pm

Texashawk wrote:So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.

Agreed
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6824 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:02 pm

xironman wrote:https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1298780499171827713?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Sulfur looks like a good choice for being in the eye, having a parking garage not so much.
Cameron looks good too, courthouse would be solid but no way to get in or on top of it
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6825 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:02 pm

Texashawk wrote:So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.


Unfortunately the NHC is an organization within the realm of politics, and making a severe forecast and having it bust, while better than a storm be worse than predicted, causes a great deal of outrage and other issues
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6826 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Anyone have links that they can share that will be live when Laura hits.


Somebody posted the twitter earlier that linked to the YT for Cameron https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F7q-o
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6827 Postby Maryellen46 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:04 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
sweetpea wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Is he going to be live again?


Yes he had to go to the bathroom. LOL


His stream and Jeff Piotrowski's are going to be nuts tonight.


Did you hear him asking his partner about the surge already taking some of the lake out??
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6828 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:04 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
HurricaneEdouard wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This type of shear so long it remains away from the mid levels will enhance the system and its effects until it moves in land. Around then it'll start to get shredded.

According to Levi it is mid-level shear...?

Here's the CIMSS mid level shear chart:
https://i.imgur.com/yZLPK0O.gif

Embedded within 10-15kts of mid level shear.


I did see Levi's post about the SW shear between h40 & h20 from the 12z sounding in LC this morning. Too bad there's no 0z sounding from Lake Charles, but both GFS and Euro show a stacked circulation all the way to h20 at landfall and I don't see any SW winds at h40-h20 to the south or or SW of it as it makes landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6829 Postby dukeblue219 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:05 pm

Texashawk wrote:So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.


Because for every Laura there are a few others storms where people are convinced it will turn left, or rapidly intensify, or go annular or whatever and it doesn't pan out. The NHC is extremely careful to never "fear monger" unless it is truly warranted, because it's been shown time and again that people will latch onto those missed calls and won't evac next time.

They're ultimately pretty accurate over there, especially with track, but it does look like they refuse to predict RI, which normally is pretty unpredictable. Granted, we seem to be in a time period where any storm with an eye RI's, so the bulls in the room may be right more than the NHC in that regard.
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6830 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:05 pm

133 knots again. Seems like the magic number. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6831 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:05 pm

The euro drops it down another 7 mb over the next 3 hours. could be conservative though

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6832 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:05 pm

Texashawk wrote:So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.

This is a good question. The truth is, Laura's intensity for much of its life was highly dependent on a series of factors including land interaction, its broad structure, and upper level conditions. Especially as it was passing Hispaniola and Cuba, cat1 was a decent call, because if the structure remained too broad it would not be able to capitalize on these conditions. I think they held off for too long calling for a cat3 at landfall, but anything above that was up in the air. Even a lot of the posters on here yesterday did not see this getting below 955mb and for a time I was doubting my prior expectations of a cat4.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6833 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:05 pm

935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6834 Postby JPmia » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:05 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:I call it Lake Chuck lol.

Chuck


Where exactly are you in Lake Charles? I'd like to find you on Google Maps. Thanks and stay safe.. and for the heavens sake take videos!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6835 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:06 pm

Maryellen46 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
sweetpea wrote:
Yes he had to go to the bathroom. LOL


His stream and Jeff Piotrowski's are going to be nuts tonight.


Did you hear him asking his partner about the surge already taking some of the lake out??



Maybe I’m doing something wrong but Jeff’s feed isn’t live right now on the periscope page I’m on
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6836 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.


Might go up to 155 at 11 at this rate. Don't think they'll up it before the main advisory.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6837 Postby Blow_Hard » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:06 pm

cfisher wrote:Sheriff is saying 100-150 people staying in Cameron Parrish overnight. Very sad situation



Let me tell you this. They had about the same number of people that refused to evacuate Mexico Beach for Michael. Now, they list the official Death Toll in Bay County as (19) but I have been told by many people who would have first hand knowledge, that there were over 100 bodies found in Mexico Beach in the days after. FEMA had two refrigerated 53 ft. Semi Trailers there for the recovery. There will be the same kind of situation in Cameron...I just don't understand how people think they can roll the dice in a situation like this.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6838 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:06 pm


Intensity-wise, HWRF has handled Laura incredibly well; it has not only been consistent in predicting rapid intensification and peak intensity since the beginning (5+ days out), but it's been nailing the short-term intensity, structure and satellite presentation of Laura since it approached Puerto Rico. I will note that, with the benefit of hindsight, it nailed the infrared presentation, structure and intensity of Laura a it approached the Gulf coast from about two days out.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6839 Postby TallahasseeMan » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.


Laura is teasing us at this point...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6840 Postby ava_ati » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Anyone have links that they can share that will be live when Laura hits.


Live storm chasing will have some I'm sure
https://livestormchasing.com/map
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