Hammy wrote:Kingarabian wrote:935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.
Might go up to 155 at 11 at this rate. Don't think they'll up it before the main advisory.
They’re doing hourly updates. So if recon finds cat 5 winds they’ll upgrade at 10pm est
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Hammy wrote:Kingarabian wrote:935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.
Might go up to 155 at 11 at this rate. Don't think they'll up it before the main advisory.
Kingarabian wrote:935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:133 knot SFMR but on the southeast side of the eyewall.
That NE eyewall is going to be a doozy next pass, I'd guess.
dukeblue219 wrote:Texashawk wrote:So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.
Because for every Laura there are a few others storms where people are convinced it will turn left, or rapidly intensify, or go annular or whatever and it doesn't pan out. The NHC is extremely careful to never "fear monger" unless it is truly warranted, because it's been shown time and again that people will latch onto those missed calls and won't evac next time.
They're ultimately pretty accurate over there, especially with track, but it does look like they refuse to predict RI, which normally is pretty unpredictable. Granted, we seem to be in a time period where any storm with an eye RI's, so the bulls in the room may be right more than the NHC in that regard.
cfisher wrote:Sheriff is saying 100-150 people staying in Cameron Parrish overnight. Very sad situation
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:133 knot SFMR but on the southeast side of the eyewall.
That NE eyewall is going to be a doozy next pass, I'd guess.
That 133 knot reading was in the NW eyewall.
8:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.7°N 93.1°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
WeatherEmperor wrote:Isnt 135KT supposed to translate to 155MPH? So anything above 135KT would be Cat5 right?
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Texashawk wrote:So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:133 knot SFMR but on the southeast side of the eyewall.
That NE eyewall is going to be a doozy next pass, I'd guess.
That 133 knot reading was in the NW eyewall.
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