ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Maryellen46]

His stream and Jeff Piotrowski's are going to be nuts tonight.

Did you hear him asking his partner about the surge already taking some of the lake out??

I heard it on his Facebook stream.

Maybe I’m doing something wrong but Jeff’s feed isn’t live right now on the periscope page I’m on

[jdjaguar]

Is anyone else noticing a trend of cyclones consistently outperforming forecasts, I wonder why that might be?

Forecasts err on conservative side to minimize what I call “The boy who cried wolf” effect.

[hurricaneCW]

Laura may get a Michael like frictional assist which could help bring those Cat 5 winds to the surface.

Some evidence of that happening as cloud tops are getting colder as it approaches landfall.

[sma10]

So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.

Every storm has the golden runway at some point, and they have over done intensity on numerous storms. Try to be objective here, Laura is just a single storm.

Furthermore, I recall several discussions reminding of the fact that even 24-36 hour intensity forecasts are subject to appreciable error

[gfsperpendicular]

Also remember that NHC is hesitant about upgrading to 5 off SFMR. Jose in 2017 had Cat 5 SFMR, as did Michael. Neither were upgraded operationally, and Michael's TCR stated that it was upgraded off information unavailable at landfall. So we'll probably need a dropsonde or multiple decisive readings if it is going to be upgraded.

[FLpanhandle91]

938mb at the surface.

[Cyclenall]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1298671205172617218



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1298671655498252289




Points that I never even considered.

[EquusStorm]

So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.

Every storm has the golden runway at some point, and they have over done intensity on numerous storms. Try to be objective here, Laura is just a single storm.

In fact if I recall they had Marco forecast to nearly category two, which was an absolutely reasonable expectation but the storm managed to under-perform; they're usually pretty good with intensity but intensity is MUCH trickier than track in a lot of cases especially with narrow windows of favorable conditions

[supercane4867]

Continues to intensify.

[chaser1]

Laura may get a Michael like frictional assist which could help bring those Cat 5 winds to the surface.

Some evidence of that happening as cloud tops are getting colder as it approaches landfall.

Perhaps so. Havnt been able to keep up with data coming in. Have pressures continued a 2-3 mb drop per hour?

[stormwatcher95]

As I was saying a week ago, its just that time of the year that these things just find a way. Unfortunately, that came to fruition in the worse possible way. Stomach churning that people stayed at ground zero. She's a monster.

[NDG]

Tornadic cells in the northern quadrant are about to come onshore in the next couple of hours.

[toad strangler]

Godspeed

 http://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1298793445650239488

[Visioen]

Is anyone else noticing a trend of cyclones consistently outperforming forecasts, I wonder why that might be?

wrong thread

[NDG]

Laura may get a Michael like frictional assist which could help bring those Cat 5 winds to the surface.

Some evidence of that happening as cloud tops are getting colder as it approaches landfall.

Perhaps so. Havnt been able to keep up with data coming in. Have pressures continued a 2-3 mb drop per hour?

Yes.

[supercane4867]

Current IR presentation is the best it has ever been.

[Beef Stew]

AF plane is finally closing in on Laura. Should be getting passes relatively soon.

[sweetpea]

His stream and Jeff Piotrowski's are going to be nuts tonight.

Did you hear him asking his partner about the surge already taking some of the lake out??

Maybe I’m doing something wrong but Jeff’s feed isn’t live right now on the periscope page I’m on

He signed off for a bit, said he would be back in a little while

[Hurrilurker]

I hope people who decided to stay are watching and get out now, in a couple hours it’s probably too late. And that’s just for people who have transportation available, not everyone does. Have they evacuated all the hospitals in the area? That’s risky to do with critical patients.

[Orlando]

Is anyone else noticing a trend of cyclones consistently outperforming forecasts, I wonder why that might be?

I read an article today on a news site, don't remember which site, that said weather forecasting has been harder to predict recently due to the diminished air traffic as a result of covid. Evidently, plane traffic gives readings such as wind and other things that help forecasters to predict. Don't know if that relates here or not.