ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

Pretty tame in Lafayette right now. Light rain band has moved through but just breezy if anything. Looks like in about 1.5 hours we'll get into the "core" rainshield and I expect things to pick up rapidly.

[psyclone]

As I was saying a week ago, its just that time of the year that these things just find a way. Unfortunately, that came to fruition in the worse possible way. Stomach churning that people stayed at ground zero. She's a monster.

Another storm that was disheveled mess for days on end...until it wasn't. In peak season if a disturbance has a will to survive...it will eventually find itself in an environment to thrive.

[Kingarabian]

Current IR presentation is the best it has ever been.

https://i.imgur.com/UVjFBtu.jpg

If it a closed W ring it would be above 7.0 on Dvorak for a solid Cat.5.

[GCANE]

VDM
938mb

[HurryKane]

Sheriff is saying 100-150 people staying in Cameron Parrish overnight. Very sad situation

Let me tell you this. They had about the same number of people that refused to evacuate Mexico Beach for Michael. Now, they list the official Death Toll in Bay County as (19) but I have been told by many people who would have first hand knowledge, that there were over 100 bodies found in Mexico Beach in the days after. FEMA had two refrigerated 53 ft. Semi Trailers there for the recovery. There will be the same kind of situation in Cameron...I just don't understand how people think they can roll the dice in a situation like this.

People are complex and have all kinds of reasons they make the choices they do. I wonder if anyone's done a study of the people who stay, or of their loved ones who survived. It would be interesting for sure.

[aspen]

Current IR presentation is the best it has ever been.

https://i.imgur.com/UVjFBtu.jpg

If it a closed W ring it would be above 7.0 on Dvorak for a solid Cat.5.

Dmax is approaching and Laura still has 6-8 hours before landfall, so she might actually get there.

[GCANE]

[supercane4867]

Only one windsat scan captured the system this evening. All other microwave passes are bust.

NE eyewall is on fire, and no signs of ERC to speak of.

[cfisher]

Where do we think this is going to bottom out?

[GCANE]

Eye:
25 nm wide
38% RH @ 700mb

[Highteeld]

Eye temp is now within touching distance of Dorian's (21.47*C)

2020AUG27 005020 6.4 929.0 124.6 6.4 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.35 -69.14 EYE 27 IR 69.2 28.70 93.05 ARCHER GOES16 38.8

[SootyTern]

Does it have enough time to reach C5?

Absolutely, especially when we consider post-season storm evaluations. Will it get there in real time, hard to say. Those 150+ knot gusts aren't high off the water, so 140kt sustained at the surface could happen on the next pass through the NE quad and show up at 11pm. Might not, but there's still time the way it's bombing out.

One thing complicating a post mortem re-evaluation is that there doesn’t seem to be as many structures for them to use like there was for Michael (namely at Tyndall AFB where you know exactly how the buildings were built since it’s gov’t work). Holly Beach and that area does have homes and businesses but the sample size would be relatively low and there would be more unknown construction variables.

Yeah single-wide trailers up on stilts under a tin roof might not fare so well under high-end Cat 4 to cat 5 winds. I'm hoping these are hunting/fishing camps and not actual home bases for families.

[GCANE]

Too late now, even if an EWRC started.

[Kazmit]

Anyone else have a folder dedicated to Laura satellite imagery?

[eastcoastFL]

Amazing how fast she’s strengthened

[CrazyC83]

Where do we think this is going to bottom out?

At landfall at this rate.

[Sailingtime]

Anyone else have a folder dedicated to Laura satellite imagery?

Yes!

[ronyan]

Anyone else have a folder dedicated to Laura satellite imagery?

No yet but I will, have a bunch sitting on the desktop

[Snowman67]

Can someone please post the link to Jeff Piotrowski's live stream?

[FLpanhandle91]

Amazing how fast she’s strengthened


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_13L/web/last24hrs.gif

This almost guarantees no EWRC before landfall. It would've had to start by now with double wind maxima showing themselves.