ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GrayLancer18]

Air Force through 9:00pm CDT.
NOAA through 9:01pm CDT.

Now that's coordination.

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[northjaxpro]

With a pandemic still ongoing it surely is a very bad time evacuating from a Category 4 (possibly a Cat5) cyclone. The stress from taking shelter is one, but making sure not to catch the disease is another.

We are very simplistic Cajuns. Our thought process was that Covid is 98.7% survivable whereas Laura isn't giving us those odds so off we went. The eye is coming in right over my house. I said my goodbyes to my home this morning.

God bless you.

Yes, God be with you and everyone in the path of this deadly storm. My heart and prayers are with you and everyone!!!

[Highteeld]

[Kazmit]

At least if the AF plane stops reporting again the NOAA plane will make up for it.

[hurricaneCW]

She's making a final run at Category 5, frictional effects clearly helping.

Cameron and Lake Charles will take direct hit with NE & Eastern eyewall.

[chaser1]

With a pandemic still ongoing it surely is a very bad time evacuating from a Category 4 (possibly a Cat5) cyclone. The stress from taking shelter is one, but making sure not to catch the disease is another.

We are very simplistic Cajuns. Our thought process was that Covid is 98.7% survivable whereas Laura isn't giving us those odds so off we went. The eye is coming in right over my house. I said my goodbyes to my home this morning.

Godspeed. Be safe.

[Kingarabian]

Bunch of flagged flight level cat.5 winds of near 144kts.

[NDG]

Interesting that the AF's SFMR found much lower winds, there's no way.

020400 2857N 09244W 6970 02889 9769 +117 +117 159127 128 101 027 00
020430 2857N 09246W 6968 02878 9737 +126 +126 164128 130 108 015 00
020500 2856N 09247W 6967 02855 9704 +131 +131 169131 135 114 011 00
020530 2856N 09248W 6976 02821 9679 +133 //// 170131 137 115 007 01
020600 2855N 09249W 6970 02811 9635 +131 //// 175133 137 116 003 01
020630 2855N 09250W 6966 02791 //// +121 //// 172139 142 116 003 01
020700 2854N 09252W 6962 02778 //// +120 //// 174144 145 114 001 05
020730 2854N 09253W 6971 02746 //// +124 //// 178143 145 117 000 05
020800 2854N 09254W 6973 02723 //// +127 //// 181132 143 /// /// 05
020830 2854N 09255W 6971 02693 //// +127 //// 184115 121 112 000 05
020900 2854N 09257W 6970 02662 9426 +145 +138 185091 109 107 000 05
020930 2854N 09259W 6967 02651 9402 +188 +113 188055 077 102 000 03
021000 2854N 09301W 6980 02628 9378 +211 +080 190043 046 053 000 00

[HurricaneEnzo]

Bunch of flagged flight level cat.5 winds of near 144kts.

What were they flagged for rain rates?

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[SeaBrz_FL]

As usual, I can offer little storm knowledge, but you Bayou Bunch have always been right here for me during my East Coast FL storms.

I will pray tonight for your safe passage and recovery from this Laura witch. Godspeed.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298803390722510848

[Kingarabian]

Interesting that the AF's SFMR found much lower winds, there's no way.

020400 2857N 09244W 6970 02889 9769 +117 +117 159127 128 101 027 00
020430 2857N 09246W 6968 02878 9737 +126 +126 164128 130 108 015 00
020500 2856N 09247W 6967 02855 9704 +131 +131 169131 135 114 011 00
020530 2856N 09248W 6976 02821 9679 +133 //// 170131 137 115 007 01
020600 2855N 09249W 6970 02811 9635 +131 //// 175133 137 116 003 01
020630 2855N 09250W 6966 02791 //// +121 //// 172139 142 116 003 01
020700 2854N 09252W 6962 02778 //// +120 //// 174144 145 114 001 05
020730 2854N 09253W 6971 02746 //// +124 //// 178143 145 117 000 05
020800 2854N 09254W 6973 02723 //// +127 //// 181132 143 /// /// 05
020830 2854N 09255W 6971 02693 //// +127 //// 184115 121 112 000 05
020900 2854N 09257W 6970 02662 9426 +145 +138 185091 109 107 000 05
020930 2854N 09259W 6967 02651 9402 +188 +113 188055 077 102 000 03
021000 2854N 09301W 6980 02628 9378 +211 +080 190043 046 053 000 00

Fortunately there's the NOAA plane coming in let's see if it confirms it.

[FLpanhandle91]

Air Force readings are a bust. All flagged and/or missing.

[wx98]

That was underwhelming...

[dukeblue219]

USAF still recorded 145kt flight level winds and likely below 937mb pressure. It happens. Let's see the dropsonde report and the SFMR of the NOAA plane right on their tail.

[supercane4867]

SFMR readings from AF missions tend to be lower than those coming from NOAA. I don't know why but could be due to instrumental difference?

[CrazyC83]

Bunch of flagged flight level cat.5 winds of near 144kts.

That supports the current 130 kt intensity (I'd argue for 135 kt based on radar).

[Ken711]

Interesting that the AF's SFMR found much lower winds, there's no way.

020400 2857N 09244W 6970 02889 9769 +117 +117 159127 128 101 027 00
020430 2857N 09246W 6968 02878 9737 +126 +126 164128 130 108 015 00
020500 2856N 09247W 6967 02855 9704 +131 +131 169131 135 114 011 00
020530 2856N 09248W 6976 02821 9679 +133 //// 170131 137 115 007 01
020600 2855N 09249W 6970 02811 9635 +131 //// 175133 137 116 003 01
020630 2855N 09250W 6966 02791 //// +121 //// 172139 142 116 003 01
020700 2854N 09252W 6962 02778 //// +120 //// 174144 145 114 001 05
020730 2854N 09253W 6971 02746 //// +124 //// 178143 145 117 000 05
020800 2854N 09254W 6973 02723 //// +127 //// 181132 143 /// /// 05
020830 2854N 09255W 6971 02693 //// +127 //// 184115 121 112 000 05
020900 2854N 09257W 6970 02662 9426 +145 +138 185091 109 107 000 05
020930 2854N 09259W 6967 02651 9402 +188 +113 188055 077 102 000 03
021000 2854N 09301W 6980 02628 9378 +211 +080 190043 046 053 000 00

Fortunately there's the NOAA plane coming in let's see if it confirms it.

Could it be weakening some?

[Kingarabian]

NOAA plane is a FLAG fest as well.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR readings will also be less reliable as we approach landfall, since it can sometimes do crazy things in shallow water. From here on in, they should be taken with some skepticism.