ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

SFMR readings will also be less reliable as we approach landfall, since it can sometimes do crazy things in shallow water. From here on in, they should be taken with some skepticism.

Doesn't it tend to over-estimate the winds in that case though?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon confirms the storm has leveled off. Probably will stay 150 mph all the way up to landfall.

[PavelGaborik10]

Interesting that the AF's SFMR found much lower winds, there's no way.

020400 2857N 09244W 6970 02889 9769 +117 +117 159127 128 101 027 00
020430 2857N 09246W 6968 02878 9737 +126 +126 164128 130 108 015 00
020500 2856N 09247W 6967 02855 9704 +131 +131 169131 135 114 011 00
020530 2856N 09248W 6976 02821 9679 +133 //// 170131 137 115 007 01
020600 2855N 09249W 6970 02811 9635 +131 //// 175133 137 116 003 01
020630 2855N 09250W 6966 02791 //// +121 //// 172139 142 116 003 01
020700 2854N 09252W 6962 02778 //// +120 //// 174144 145 114 001 05
020730 2854N 09253W 6971 02746 //// +124 //// 178143 145 117 000 05
020800 2854N 09254W 6973 02723 //// +127 //// 181132 143 /// /// 05
020830 2854N 09255W 6971 02693 //// +127 //// 184115 121 112 000 05
020900 2854N 09257W 6970 02662 9426 +145 +138 185091 109 107 000 05
020930 2854N 09259W 6967 02651 9402 +188 +113 188055 077 102 000 03
021000 2854N 09301W 6980 02628 9378 +211 +080 190043 046 053 000 00

Fortunately there's the NOAA plane coming in let's see if it confirms it.

Could it be weakening some?

Looks to be doing the opposite on satellite and radar.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR readings will also be less reliable as we approach landfall, since it can sometimes do crazy things in shallow water. From here on in, they should be taken with some skepticism.

Doesn't it tend to over-estimate the winds in that case though?

It can go either way, but it already over-estimated once (there was a 138 kt SFMR in the previous NOAA pass).

[cfisher]

Interesting that the AF's SFMR found much lower winds, there's no way.

020400 2857N 09244W 6970 02889 9769 +117 +117 159127 128 101 027 00
020430 2857N 09246W 6968 02878 9737 +126 +126 164128 130 108 015 00
020500 2856N 09247W 6967 02855 9704 +131 +131 169131 135 114 011 00
020530 2856N 09248W 6976 02821 9679 +133 //// 170131 137 115 007 01
020600 2855N 09249W 6970 02811 9635 +131 //// 175133 137 116 003 01
020630 2855N 09250W 6966 02791 //// +121 //// 172139 142 116 003 01
020700 2854N 09252W 6962 02778 //// +120 //// 174144 145 114 001 05
020730 2854N 09253W 6971 02746 //// +124 //// 178143 145 117 000 05
020800 2854N 09254W 6973 02723 //// +127 //// 181132 143 /// /// 05
020830 2854N 09255W 6971 02693 //// +127 //// 184115 121 112 000 05
020900 2854N 09257W 6970 02662 9426 +145 +138 185091 109 107 000 05
020930 2854N 09259W 6967 02651 9402 +188 +113 188055 077 102 000 03
021000 2854N 09301W 6980 02628 9378 +211 +080 190043 046 053 000 00

Fortunately there's the NOAA plane coming in let's see if it confirms it.

Could it be weakening some?

Not with that lightning..

[Kazmit]

Recon confirms the storm has leveled off. Probably will stay 150 mph all the way up to landfall.

Pressure has dropped since the last pass. And I think there's enough evidence to support 155 mph.

[NDG]

SFMR readings will also be less reliable as we approach landfall, since it can sometimes do crazy things in shallow water. From here on in, they should be taken with some skepticism.

True, it is very shallow in that area, so we should be going by dropsondes and fl winds.

[Highteeld]

FL winds clearly have increased

[dukeblue219]

Lot of people drawing some fast conclusions about weakening based on ONE set of raw data that was full of flagged readings. USAF still extrapolated 937mb and hadn't reached the center yet on the last data point at 02:10:00Z. I'm not seeing "weakening" anywhere.

edit to add NOAA just extrapolated 934.3mb.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR readings will also be less reliable as we approach landfall, since it can sometimes do crazy things in shallow water. From here on in, they should be taken with some skepticism.

True, it is very shallow in that area, so we should be going by dropsondes and fl winds.

Radar velocities would also be helpful. Surface data if we can get it, but it's unlikely any surface station will record anywhere near the maximum winds.

[supercane4867]

I wouldn't write-off the possibility of CAT5 landfall just yet. There's still plenty of time over water and the SSTs near the coast are actually warmer.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lot of people drawing some fast conclusions about weakening based on ONE set of raw data that was full of flagged readings. They still extrapolated 937mb and hadn't reached the center yet on the last data point at 02:10:00Z. I'm not seeing "weakening" anywhere.

It's not weakened. It's not strengthened either.

Shear has begun to impact the storm, as long expected. I don't think it'll weaken the storm, just prevent it from becoming a Cat 5.

[Kingarabian]

SFMR readings will also be less reliable as we approach landfall, since it can sometimes do crazy things in shallow water. From here on in, they should be taken with some skepticism.

True, it is very shallow in that area, so we should be going by dropsondes and fl winds.

FL are really starting to support at least 135kts if we bypass SFMR.

[ConvergenceZone]

Recon confirms the storm has leveled off. Probably will stay 150 mph all the way up to landfall.

I agree. I’m pretty confident that strengthening is done, It’s getting very close to the coast now. Not that 5 mph more would have made a difference anyway

[TallyTracker]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298803390722510848?s=20

Laura’s presentation looks a little worse than Michael’s. Also appears to be a little flattening on the west side which may be the beginnings of vertical wind shear impinging on the hurricane.

[sphelps8681]

Nothing happening here in Lumberton, Tx which is north of Beaumont. No rain or wind for the last couple of hours

[Beef Stew]

It was a bad batch of SFMR readings, which can happen as a storm approaches land. The flight level winds were up though, which is certainly not indicative of weakening

[cfisher]

I think it's still strengthening IMO. A white band almost wrapped all the way around on Dvorak IR. Recon says otherwise though

[AutoPenalti]

FL winds are up, this may achieve cat 5 status, only 3 hours and 30 minutes to go before landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Reed Timmer is live now. Jeff looks like he’s on too, the guy on YouTube is off