ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

Will they stay in the storm until landfall??

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[cheezyWXguy]

Lot of people drawing some fast conclusions about weakening based on ONE set of raw data that was full of flagged readings. They still extrapolated 937mb and hadn't reached the center yet on the last data point at 02:10:00Z. I'm not seeing "weakening" anywhere.

It's not weakened. It's not strengthened either.

Shear has begun to impact the storm, as long expected. I don't think it'll weaken the storm, just prevent it from becoming a Cat 5.

I don’t think so yet. Pressure is still dropping, convection is deepening and the eye is contracting. I am still not seeing evidence of shear on the core yet. Still a couple of hours to go

[northjaxpro]

Lot of people drawing some fast conclusions about weakening based on ONE set of raw data that was full of flagged readings. USAF still extrapolated 937mb and hadn't reached the center yet on the last data point at 02:10:00Z. I'm not seeing "weakening" anywhere.

edit to add NOAA just extrapolated 934.3mb.

This!! Still has several hours still to go until landfall and ssts are still abnormally warm near the coast.

[CrazyC83]

We'd need to see about 152 kt FL winds to support cat 5 on that basis alone, although there would likely need to be additional evidence such as radar, a T7.0 Dvorak number or a rapid pressure drop to confirm that.

[HurricaneEnzo]

This is a storm that is still strengthening but will the winds have time to catch up and reach Cat 5? As others have said won't really make any difference other than in record books.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

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[eastcoastFL]

Will they stay in the storm until landfall??

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Yup.

[hurricaneCW]

This is still deepening albeit slowly though much improved on its eastern side.

Don't see any evidence of shear impacting it and it likely won't till landfall.

[tolakram]

Lot of people drawing some fast conclusions about weakening based on ONE set of raw data that was full of flagged readings. They still extrapolated 937mb and hadn't reached the center yet on the last data point at 02:10:00Z. I'm not seeing "weakening" anywhere.

It's not weakened. It's not strengthened either.

Shear has begun to impact the storm, as long expected. I don't think it'll weaken the storm, just prevent it from becoming a Cat 5.

Last NOAA pass was 938, this one was 935 unflagged. What evidence am I missing that shows this has leveled off?

USAF
021230 2852N 09310W 6978 02621 9359 +220 +070 282005 008 035 001 00

936 unflagged.

[Sciencerocks]

[supercane4867]

New burst of intense convection in the northern eyewall with -80C cloudtop.

[Kingarabian]

Storm looks at the very least looks consistent to me:


And more organized on Dvorak/BD:

[HurricaneEnzo]

6500 feet up

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[PandaCitrus]

Radar showing a more pronounced NNW motion rather than due north the last couple hours. It looks like the eye may pass west of Lake Charles now. Lake Charles may end up in the northeast quadrant. Bad for winds and bad for surge.

[NDG]

SFMR readings will also be less reliable as we approach landfall, since it can sometimes do crazy things in shallow water. From here on in, they should be taken with some skepticism.

True, it is very shallow in that area, so we should be going by dropsondes and fl winds.

Radar velocities would also be helpful. Surface data if we can get it, but it's unlikely any surface station will record anywhere near the maximum winds.

NOAA plane winds report are definitely higher than the AF's.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lot of people drawing some fast conclusions about weakening based on ONE set of raw data that was full of flagged readings. They still extrapolated 937mb and hadn't reached the center yet on the last data point at 02:10:00Z. I'm not seeing "weakening" anywhere.

It's not weakened. It's not strengthened either.

Shear has begun to impact the storm, as long expected. I don't think it'll weaken the storm, just prevent it from becoming a Cat 5.

Last NOAA pass was 938, this one was 935 unflagged. What evidence am I missing that shows this has leveled off?

USAF
021230 2852N 09310W 6978 02621 9359 +220 +070 282005 008 035 001 00

936 unflagged.

SFMR has been consistent around 120-130 knots for the last several passes. That tells me the storm has leveled off. JMO.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298806812213473280

[tolakram]

SFMR has been consistent around 120-130 knots for the last several passes. That tells me the storm has leveled off. JMO.

Pressure is a much better barometer (ha!) of strength, SFMR is going to be more and more inaccurate as the waters get shallow near the coast.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1298809574850465793

[SconnieCane]

Storm looks at the very least looks consistent to me:
https://i.imgur.com/ZqDQw75.gif

And more organized on Dvorak/BD:
https://i.imgur.com/HGQTCvV.gif

Looks like some patches of CMG in the northern eyewall and a nearly complete W ring although a little spotty in the northeast.

[supercane4867]

Both recon missions should have the opportunity to conduct at least one more pass in the N-NE-E eyewall before landfall.