ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

It's not weakened. It's not strengthened either.

Shear has begun to impact the storm, as long expected. I don't think it'll weaken the storm, just prevent it from becoming a Cat 5.

Last NOAA pass was 938, this one was 935 unflagged. What evidence am I missing that shows this has leveled off?

USAF
021230 2852N 09310W 6978 02621 9359 +220 +070 282005 008 035 001 00

936 unflagged.

SFMR has been consistent around 120-130 knots for the last several passes. That tells me the storm has leveled off. JMO.

Possible. Hope that's the case. But don't forget that winds lag as the pressure drops. So with the pressure continuing to drop and winds have stayed about same in the past 2-3 hours, we could see a noticeable increase up in wind speeds before landfall.

[Jevo]

Reed Timmer is live now. Jeff looks like he’s on too, the guy on YouTube is off

Hey hey now.. The guy on Youtube is Mark Sudduth.. he's akin to the godfather of live hurricane chasing on the internet. He rode out Hurricane Charlie under a bridge in Punta Gorda.

He should be back online shortly I think he was getting set up where he is hunkering down.

[MGC]

The 133KTS observed on an earlier penetration equates to 153mph.....3mph short of Cat-5. NHC will use radar data from Lake Charles radar along with other data to do a detailed post storm analysis. It is very likely the SFMR missed the strongest winds as it only samples a small area of ocean beneath the aircraft. At this intensity it matters only to the record books.......MGC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR has been consistent around 120-130 knots for the last several passes. That tells me the storm has leveled off. JMO.

Pressure is a much better barometer (ha!) of strength, SFMR is going to be more and more inaccurate as the waters get shallow near the coast.

My understanding, at least during Dorian and Harvey, was that SFMR might actually be slightly biased high in shallow waters.

[chaser1]

SFMR has been consistent around 120-130 knots for the last several passes. That tells me the storm has leveled off. JMO.

Pressure is a much better barometer (ha!) of strength, SFMR is going to be more and more inaccurate as the waters get shallow near the coast.

THAT's a keeper for the ages!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Confirmed TOG with a debris ball along 82.

[tolakram]

Reed Timmer is live now. Jeff looks like he’s on too, the guy on YouTube is off

Hey hey now.. The guy on Youtube is Mark Sudduth.. he's akin to the godfather of live hurricane chasing on the internet. He rode out Hurricane Charlie under a bridge in Punta Gorda.

He should be back online shortly I think he was getting set up where he is hunkering down.

He's back.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/rYqR6PtVaOw[/youtube]

[supercane4867]

Remember that recon found 152kt FL wind in Michael at the last minute during landfall. Laura still has 60 miles of distance to reach land.

[Texas Snowman]

Radar showing a more pronounced NNW motion rather than due north the last couple hours. It looks like the eye may pass west of Lake Charles now. Lake Charles may end up in the northeast quadrant. Bad for winds and bad for surge.

Yes, I agree. I've driven through Lake Charles a few times, but was still surprised to see that the population of the city's Metropolitan Statistical Area was 202,040 (2013 Census). And I'm sure it's grown since then.

Frightened for anyone who has stayed behind. Wind and storm surge damage could be unbelievable. Mexico Beach stuff, just in a significantly larger community.

[Hurrilurker]

Sabine Pass Tower WX: “Pressure Malfunctioning” lol

[GCANE]

Jeff reports tornado debris signature on radar, Pecan Island

[Blinhart]

I think there is an excellent chance of this definitely getting sub 930 in pressure, and the winds do have a chance to catch up to the pressure drop and make it to 160 MPH. I'm glad my 175 MPH and 912 mb guess won't come to fruit, at least it appears so.

[supercane4867]

I'm guessing the NOAA plane will try to do a SW-NE pass next.

[Craters]

https://twitter.com/Livestormchaser/status/1298796295977656320

NHC has done an amazing job with the forecast track since Sunday.

Amen to that! I've been absolutely agog with the accuracy of the NHC's track for the past three or four days, especially given all of the windshield-wiper model activity over that period. Every time somebody tells me that Model X is doing [something scary], I always send them to the NHC's track and tell them to watch that.

The NHC crew is as good as they get.

[tolakram]

[Steve]

I feel you Jagno.

[SootyTern]

NE quad finally filling in on satellite. cat 5 pass probably coming soon.

Yep

https://i.imgur.com/OLitBOR.gif

Convection now is so intense to the W and SW of the eye. Houston to the state line might see some pretty nasty weather even though they are on the preferred side of the eye

[cfisher]

https://i.imgur.com/cjmdm9h.gif

Taking a hard westerly jog

[supercane4867]

WV continues to show zero signs of weakening

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA at 9:15pm CDT: 940mb, 7 knots of wind

UZNT13 KWBC 270222
XXAA 77027 99289 70932 08283 99940 27416 18007 00/// ///// /////
92140 26211 20009 85887 24235 23520 70593 24669 19002 88999 77999
31313 09608 80210
61616 NOAA2 2413A LAURA OB 33
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20010 AEV 30404 DLM WND 21511 939632 WL150 1
9009 085 REL 2892N09318W 021017 SPG 2893N09316W 021502 =
XXBB 77028 99289 70932 08283 00940 27416 11897 24407 22885 25838
33850 24235 44820 23645 55779 26264 66749 24063 77700 24669 88632
19467
21212 00940 18007 11934 18011 22911 20008 33850 23520 44814 24014
55801 21514 66787 23015 77779 20016 88747 21020 99732 18514 11725
16010 22717 16510 33632 10001
31313 09608 80210
61616 NOAA2 2413A LAURA OB 33
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20010 AEV 30404 DLM WND 21511 939632 WL150 1
9009 085 REL 2892N09318W 021017 SPG 2893N09316W 021502 =