ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe some of the worst surge is from weakening storms, so maybe a weakening storm disperses winds into a broader wind field. Maybe this is what creates horrific surge. Many big time surges were powerful storms that were weakening.

[eastcoastFL]

Some preliminary storm surge reports are lower than forecast, so there’s a silver lining.

I saw that too. I think I heard something like 9 feet. Hopefully some people were able to survive that stayed back.

they were if they had a ladder or a two story house....other problem is a surge will take a house right off the slab and then its real trouble if you stayed....surge doesn't get enough headlines in the media

Yah I was just saying the same thing to my wife. Their only hope to surviving was on the roof or in the attic and that’s IF they still had a roof and attic.

[eastcoastFL]

I believe some of the worst surge is from weakening storms, so maybe a weakening storm disperses winds into a broader wind field. Maybe this is what creates horrific surge. Many big time surges were powerful storms that were weakening.

Could be since their wind field expands as they weaken and they expand in size pushing more and more water on shore. They already have momentum going forward so if they weaken on approach it won’t make the surge weaker

Also she was moving pretty quick.

[jlauderdal]

I saw that too. I think I heard something like 9 feet. Hopefully some people were able to survive that stayed back.

they were if they had a ladder or a two story house....other problem is a surge will take a house right off the slab and then its real trouble if you stayed....surge doesn't get enough headlines in the media

Yah I was just saying the same thing to my wife. Their only hope to surviving was on the roof or in the attic and that’s IF they still had a roof and attic.

Attics are real problem because if the water gets that high and you cant cut yourself out the end result is not good. Bottom line, if you are in an evac zone then evac. Another issue especially in Florida is people evacuating when they shouldn't, they want to run to Orlando which clogs roads..its nutty. Buy a generator for 700 bucks and saves yourself the trouble and the money, evacuating isn't free.

[Do_For_Love]

It must have come in JUST far enough east to spare Lake Charles and Cameron the worst of that. I would wait for word from the smaller communities along and south of I-10 between Lake Charles and Lafayette, though before stating with confidence that a water catastrophe has been averted (what with the forecasts of 40 miles inland surge penetration).

Good point. I'm old enough to remember when Katrina hit that the initial narrative was "not as bad as expected". Maybe the surge didn't materialize, but it also might take a couple days to really understand what happened.

[p1nheadlarry]

I saw that too. I think I heard something like 9 feet. Hopefully some people were able to survive that stayed back.

they were if they had a ladder or a two story house....other problem is a surge will take a house right off the slab and then its real trouble if you stayed....surge doesn't get enough headlines in the media

Yah I was just saying the same thing to my wife. Their only hope to surviving was on the roof or in the attic and that’s IF they still had a roof and attic.

Well tbf, I did say “preliminary”

[eastcoastFL]

they were if they had a ladder or a two story house....other problem is a surge will take a house right off the slab and then its real trouble if you stayed....surge doesn't get enough headlines in the media

Yah I was just saying the same thing to my wife. Their only hope to surviving was on the roof or in the attic and that’s IF they still had a roof and attic.

Attics are real problem because if the water gets that high and you cant cut yourself out the end result is not good. Bottom line, if you are in an evac zone then evac. Another issue especially in Florida is people evacuating when they shouldn't, they want to run to Orlando which clogs roads..its nutty. Buy a generator for 700 bucks and saves yourself the trouble and the money, evacuating isn't free.

I agree. My only evac was Dorian and it was a waste but who knew 3 days out that it would stall. With Irma everyone headed west then came back when she shifted. My mother went to Naples or something and then drove to South Carolina when the storm shifted west and ended up stuck there when the storm flooded up that way. I stayed at her house in Port St. Lucie and all was well.

[eastcoastFL]

It must have come in JUST far enough east to spare Lake Charles and Cameron the worst of that. I would wait for word from the smaller communities along and south of I-10 between Lake Charles and Lafayette, though before stating with confidence that a water catastrophe has been averted (what with the forecasts of 40 miles inland surge penetration).

Good point. I'm old enough to remember when Katrina hit that the initial narrative was "not as bad as expected". Maybe the surge didn't materialize, but it also might take a couple days to really understand what happened.

I remember New Orleans in decent shape the following morning and then the levees popped

[supercane4867]

Starting to see reports of serious structural damage in Lake Charles

 https://twitter.com/davantelewis/status/1298948917942456321

[jlauderdal]

Yah I was just saying the same thing to my wife. Their only hope to surviving was on the roof or in the attic and that’s IF they still had a roof and attic.

Attics are real problem because if the water gets that high and you cant cut yourself out the end result is not good. Bottom line, if you are in an evac zone then evac. Another issue especially in Florida is people evacuating when they shouldn't, they want to run to Orlando which clogs roads..its nutty. Buy a generator for 700 bucks and saves yourself the trouble and the money, evacuating isn't free.

I agree. My only evac was Dorian and it was a waste but who knew 3 days out that it would stall. With Irma everyone headed west then came back when she shifted. My mother went to Naples or something and then drove to South Carolina when the storm shifted west and ended up stuck there when the storm flooded up that way. I stayed at her house in Port St. Lucie and all was well.

We know people that went West to Tampa with Irma then North to Atlanta which if you look at the track, they essentially chased ahead of the storm track, lol....I was never leaving anyway but they were insane with all that driving then coming back to sofla from Atlanta took forever. Stay put, have supplies and a genney, evac if and only if you are in an evacuation zone.

[Shell Mound]

Does anyone know why the storm surge was apparently much lower than expected? Factors were ideal for a large surge. Were surface winds weak?

 https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959516797730816



 https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959519863767041



 https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959521914683398

[plasticup]

evac if and only if you are in an evacuation zone.

Absolutely not good advice. People who are exceptionally vulnerable or whose houses are exceptionally vulnerable may need to leave when their neighbors do not.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/FarukFirat1987/status/1298957499475820549



 https://twitter.com/Patrick_Madden/status/1298957083010838529



 https://twitter.com/LAFIREMARSHAL/status/1298960181271957505



 https://twitter.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/1298960511007109120



 https://twitter.com/BrianJamesWx/status/1298961585248100353

[supercane4867]

Does anyone know why the storm surge was apparently much lower than expected? Factors were ideal for a large surge. Were surface winds weak?

https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959516797730816
https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959519863767041
https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959521914683398

I think it’s mostly due to the direction of approach. Worst of storm surge hit a very sparsely populated region where few or no observations are available.

[jhpigott]

Looking back thru the posts and observations as the NE eyewall went thru Lake Charles last night, Reed Timmer reported a wind gust of 155 and the airport a gust of 132. If those are accurate, then I would hazard to guess that there were some 160+ gusts along the coast east of Cameron. Wowzers!!

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/donboesch/status/1298962663263940608

[Shell Mound]

Does anyone know why the storm surge was apparently much lower than expected? Factors were ideal for a large surge. Were surface winds weak?

https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959516797730816
https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959519863767041
https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/status/1298959521914683398

I think it’s mostly due to the direction of approach. Worst of storm surge hit a very sparsely populated region where few or no observations are available.

Probably an approach from the SW or even SSW rather than SSE would have yielded the very high values that were originally anticipated in, e.g., Lake Charles.

The shape of the coastline relative to the angle of approach probably prevented a larger surge, given local bays and lakes tend to angle eastward, i.e., Vermilion.

[snowpocalypse]

Yes trying to get a few hours of sleep.

We have a big day tomorrow cutting out of here. I am only one with chain saw I think lol. 28” Husqvarna.

We are all going out together to cut path and meet incoming army of line trucks and ambulances. I’m rambling but trying to keep you all in loop. Glad to have a signal.

Stay safe out there. Chased many a storm, didn't make this one due to work. Funny story.. Irene in '11, truck was in the shop, took a friends VW instead (diesel.. 600 miles to a tank). I always bring chainsaw, tools, and gas. Couldn't make it to OBX, so rode out the worst of it in VA beach, then headed back via 95.. came to a large downed tree across all sb lanes, 20-30 cars stuck behind it. Here we come on the shoulder.. hopped out of the hippie car with a chainsaw, cleared the lane and on we went. LEO came along and gave us a friendly WTH look.

[supercane4867]

Wind damage in Lake Charles is pretty intense. Typical of a CAT4.

Still haven't seen anything coming from Cameron yet. Wind gusts should be even higher along the coast.

[Kazmit]

Wind damage in Lake Charles is pretty intense. Typical of a CAT4.

Still haven't seen anything coming from Cameron yet. Wind gusts should be even higher along the coast.

Not sure there's anything left to see in Cameron.