Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 99L)

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS for the wave near 41W (not the one just off Africa): more TCs than prior runs/Mexico bound...good chance the US would get lucky with this one due to the very strong ridging above it though Mexico would take a hit but still a long ways out/danger to CONUS would be if this were to form near the Bahamas or form early (east of the Lesser Antilles) and then move WNW north of the GAs:

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic have gradually become a little better
organized during the day. Additional development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves westward
at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SFLcane]

Yep probably heading for CA then Mex.

[Cataegis96]

Plenty of deep convection with this area tonight. Models are continuing to pick up on development of this too. Maybe some minor dry air issues as it approaches the islands, but that looks to be a diminishing negative factor in time. Odds look pretty good for this to begin TCG by as early as Sunday. Will likely see an invest tag sometime tomorrow.

[Astromanía]

Yes, I can take a hit

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like this one might get the infamous Invest 99L.

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like this one might get the infamous Invest 99L.

When do you think they’ll tag it as an invest?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1299141743015636992

[LarryWx]

So, what wave will storm Grandma from? Will it be from here? I think this has the best shot.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Looks like this one might get the infamous Invest 99L.

Oh lord he we go lol

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like this one might get the infamous Invest 99L.

When do you think they’ll tag it as an invest?

Maybe in a couple days is my guess. Not liking the potential track of this one though... If conditions are favorable and it gets to the western Caribbean... watch out.

[Aric Dunn]

Well now.

if this convection keeps up all night it would really help this out.

much less attached to the ITCZ than it was earlier.

Should see an Invest tomorrow if convection persists. which it should. pretty good environment.

[TheStormExpert]

More than likely this is a Caribbean Cruiser. Might not develop until the Western Caribbean like Marco but will most likely move into Central America or Mexico.

[Nimbus]

What longitude did Laura start finding moisture?

[bohai]

Could we at least call these waves A/B or 1/2

[AutoPenalti]

Could we at least call these waves A/B or 1/2

I think these should just be Pouches 15/16

[CaribJam]

This TW is improving by the hour.

Convection is increasing in a circular motion in the area near 11.2N. What will it look like in the morning? Any guesses?

[Hurrilurker]

Convection looking pretty active but it also seems to be gaining latitude rather quickly in the last 6 hours, although hard to tell where the center is.

[USTropics]

Convection looking pretty active but it also seems to be gaining latitude rather quickly in the last 6 hours, although hard to tell where the center is.

We have a couple things going on here. First, there is a large and elongated trough that extends all the way up from 34N down towards 10N (highlighted in yellow). The southern flank of this trough has pinched off at the mid-levels, and this meso complex (red) has fired a bunch of convection here. This is all at mid-levels though, the actual low level vorticity is attached with the wave axis (blue) further back that's tilted. Complex (pun intended ) evolution, we'll see if the mid-level vorticity out in front can drop towards the lower levels. The wave axis (again blue) will also begin to tilt less from the NE to SW as it is currently situated and more towards the N and S as this approaches and enters the Caribbean. That will be the more likely time to watch for development chances.