2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS has a tropical storm developing in the MDR long-range, becomes a hurricane again in the very long range, with another storm immediately right behind it.

[Hammy]

No real strong signal from EPS yet.

Still plenty of SAL and mid-level dry air out there for August 27th but as I mentioned in the indicators thread the scale might be rigged. Cycloneye posted a graphic aside the new SAL graphic which showed less SAL.

But all in all this is likely why the EPS isn’t too enthusiastic.

I did notice what looked like a huge increase in dry air/SAL coverage after they switched over to GOES-16 so it could either be over-estimating it or simply more sensitive and the air was drier than the previous satellite indicated even in active periods.

GFS seems to again have three storms forming within a week (including one in the Caribbean) and I'm certainly paying attention given how it's developed almost nothing up to this point, including things that have formed.



ICON meanwhile insists my prediction about no new storms in the last ten days of August will bust

[eastcoastFL]

Who is this little guy and his friend? My





Looks like the gfs is getting a little more bullish on this potential storm

[eastcoastFL]

18z ICON with strong TS coming up on PR from the SE on Tuesday.

[Blinhart]

I officially say that the Gulf Coast is now closed for all Tropical Cyclones, you must call and reschedule your landfall for a later time, I'm sorry for any inconvenience this might cause.

In all seriousness no one needs a storm, they all need to go out to sea.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1299134516112568320

[TheStormExpert]

I officially say that the Gulf Coast is now closed for all Tropical Cyclones, you must call and reschedule your landfall for a later time, I'm sorry for any inconvenience this might cause.

In all seriousness no one needs a storm, they all need to go out to sea.

The Gulf of Mexico as a whole unfortunately doesn’t close until late-October or November. While the Western Gulf usually closes late-September or early-October with the passage of cold fronts beginning to increase.

[jaxfladude]

I officially say that the Gulf Coast is now closed for all Tropical Cyclones, you must call and reschedule your landfall for a later time, I'm sorry for any inconvenience this might cause.

In all seriousness no one needs a storm, they all need to go out to sea.

What about Laura's "cool wake" track if any?

[TheStormExpert]

I officially say that the Gulf Coast is now closed for all Tropical Cyclones, you must call and reschedule your landfall for a later time, I'm sorry for any inconvenience this might cause.

In all seriousness no one needs a storm, they all need to go out to sea.

What about Laura's "cool wake" track if any?

This is from yesterday, but the Eastern Gulf has taken a hit. Should rebound very quickly though I would assume.

[eastcoastFL]

I officially say that the Gulf Coast is now closed for all Tropical Cyclones, you must call and reschedule your landfall for a later time, I'm sorry for any inconvenience this might cause.

In all seriousness no one needs a storm, they all need to go out to sea.

What about Laura's "cool wake" track if any?

This is from yesterday, but the Eastern Gulf has taken a hit. Should rebound very quickly though I would assume.

https://i.ibb.co/1q7xGcm/8-A1-B0149-D396-4383-A363-A3133-AD165-EB.gif

https://i.ibb.co/0Mmvwp4/C5-D92-FCD-EBB2-4212-B214-8806-E0-C6-FA63.gif

I don't know. Yesterday Eric Webb was saying there were cool Temps off the Texas coast still from hanna which I didn't see how it was possible but he would know better than I.

[TheStormExpert]

What about Laura's "cool wake" track if any?

This is from yesterday, but the Eastern Gulf has taken a hit. Should rebound very quickly though I would assume.

https://i.ibb.co/1q7xGcm/8-A1-B0149-D396-4383-A363-A3133-AD165-EB.gif

https://i.ibb.co/0Mmvwp4/C5-D92-FCD-EBB2-4212-B214-8806-E0-C6-FA63.gif

I don't know. Yesterday Eric Webb was saying there were cool Temps off the Texas coast still from hanna which I didn't see how it was possible but he would know better than I.

It was beneath the surface as I said. And clearly since Laura was moving at a decent clip it had no effect on her.

[USTropics]

What about Laura's "cool wake" track if any?

This is from yesterday, but the Eastern Gulf has taken a hit. Should rebound very quickly though I would assume.

https://i.ibb.co/1q7xGcm/8-A1-B0149-D396-4383-A363-A3133-AD165-EB.gif

https://i.ibb.co/0Mmvwp4/C5-D92-FCD-EBB2-4212-B214-8806-E0-C6-FA63.gif

I don't know. Yesterday Eric Webb was saying there were cool Temps off the Texas coast still from hanna which I didn't see how it was possible but he would know better than I.

It's more of an OHC problem (i.e. the warmth of water at depth). The western GOM looks fine, there is a bit of a cold pool where Marco tracked in the central/eastern GOM. I don't believe this is directly related to Marco though (it just reinforced it), but more of an accumulation of effects (i.e. repeated passage of tropical systems before Marco as well as the break off of an eddy in July that traveled westward in the GOM leaving behind some cooler waters at depth).

Here is the track for Marco:


Track for Laura:

[SFLcane]

In my view still not much in the way in the modeling that suggest a tc outbreak forthcoming as the peak nears. EPS overnight was not impressive. We shall see

[aspen]

The GFS, Euro, CMC, and ICON all at least attempt to develop an AEW that stalls in the middle of the MDR between 4-6 days from now. The GFS is the most aggressive and bombs this out to a Category 4 in fantasy land, the Euro shows a defined TC, and the CMC attempts to develop this but never goes anywhere with it. The ICON shows a TC developing in that general area around the same time, but it doesn’t stall like the other runs. Speaking of the CMC and ICON, both of them develop the western AEW after it enters the Caribbean in 4-5 days.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS, Euro, CMC, and ICON all at least attempt to develop an AEW that stalls in the middle of the MDR between 4-6 days from now. The GFS is the most aggressive and bombs this out to a Category 4 in fantasy land, the Euro shows a defined TC, and the CMC attempts to develop this but never goes anywhere with it. The ICON shows a TC developing in that general area around the same time, but it doesn’t stall like the other runs. Speaking of the CMC and ICON, both of them develop the western AEW after it enters the Caribbean in 4-5 days.

This wave already has its own thread.

[TheStormExpert]

Might be a good time to post this humorous yet true graph.

[eastcoastFL]

Might be a good time to post this humorous yet true graph.

https://i.ibb.co/RjqF8cP/18-F6-BBEA-392-F-4-E86-9-A1-B-12-D290606-AFB.jpg

I think HWRF with its upgrades should probably swap spots with GFS putting gfs into garbage and HWRF into usually bad. It’s time to retool the gfs again or flush it. The rest is pretty accurate.

[NDG]

I officially say that the Gulf Coast is now closed for all Tropical Cyclones, you must call and reschedule your landfall for a later time, I'm sorry for any inconvenience this might cause.

In all seriousness no one needs a storm, they all need to go out to sea.

What about Laura's "cool wake" track if any?

This is from yesterday, but the Eastern Gulf has taken a hit. Should rebound very quickly though I would assume.

https://i.ibb.co/1q7xGcm/8-A1-B0149-D396-4383-A363-A3133-AD165-EB.gif

https://i.ibb.co/0Mmvwp4/C5-D92-FCD-EBB2-4212-B214-8806-E0-C6-FA63.gif

Unfortunately that is correct, the gulf waters always rebound quick, good example September '05 and base on the pattern we have seen & forecasted chances of another MH getting/forming in the GOM the rest of the hurricane season are very high, IMO.

[NDG]

This is from yesterday, but the Eastern Gulf has taken a hit. Should rebound very quickly though I would assume.

https://i.ibb.co/1q7xGcm/8-A1-B0149-D396-4383-A363-A3133-AD165-EB.gif

https://i.ibb.co/0Mmvwp4/C5-D92-FCD-EBB2-4212-B214-8806-E0-C6-FA63.gif

I don't know. Yesterday Eric Webb was saying there were cool Temps off the Texas coast still from hanna which I didn't see how it was possible but he would know better than I.

It's more of an OHC problem (i.e. the warmth of water at depth). The western GOM looks fine, there is a bit of a cold pool where Marco tracked in the central/eastern GOM. I don't believe this is directly related to Marco though (it just reinforced it), but more of an accumulation of effects (i.e. repeated passage of tropical systems before Marco as well as the break off of an eddy in July that traveled westward in the GOM leaving behind some cooler waters at depth).

Here is the track for Marco:
https://i.imgur.com/PHFO3Ui.gif

Track for Laura:
https://i.imgur.com/HZsTnBH.gif

I have always said that OHC is over rated when tropical systems are on the move, look at MH Don in the EPAC and see where it became a Cat 4, very very shallow 26.5-27C waters.

[Emmett_Brown]

The actual water temps associated with GOM cool anomalies in late August are still plenty warm enough for TC development... it just dropped from boiling to really warm. As for the next development threat, I am watching the northern portion of the wave around 30W. There isn't much there at the moment, but the Euro has this wave approaching the longitude of PR in just 96 hours. Once it gets past the stable air it could spin up N or S of PR, heading WNW. GFS shows low shear at this time around PR. Models aren't showing TC genesis consistently this year... but they are tracking the waves just fine.