2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Hammy]

CFS showing 5-7 storms forming in the MDR in the first half of September, who of which look like they could be fairly strong. Also continuing trending towards much lower pressure in the Caribbean during October and a likely outbreak of storms there during Oct/Nov

It's just insane that there's at least a 50/50 chance we reach the end of the name list by mid to late September.

[MarioProtVI]

CFS showing 5-7 storms forming in the MDR in the first half of September, who of which look like they could be fairly strong. Also continuing trending towards much lower pressure in the Caribbean during October and a likely outbreak of storms there during Oct/Nov

It's just insane that there's at least a 50/50 chance we reach the end of the name list by mid to late September.

Can you provide a graphic of this and your guesses on it (IIRC you used to do them looking at previous years’ threads)? Could be a nice way to see what could be coming or what the CFS is thinking.

[AnnularCane]

CFS showing 5-7 storms forming in the MDR in the first half of September, who of which look like they could be fairly strong. Also continuing trending towards much lower pressure in the Caribbean during October and a likely outbreak of storms there during Oct/Nov

It's just insane that there's at least a 50/50 chance we reach the end of the name list by mid to late September.

I have a funny feeling we might get past Zeta.

[weeniepatrol]

Yikes

[Hammy]

CFS showing 5-7 storms forming in the MDR in the first half of September, who of which look like they could be fairly strong. Also continuing trending towards much lower pressure in the Caribbean during October and a likely outbreak of storms there during Oct/Nov

It's just insane that there's at least a 50/50 chance we reach the end of the name list by mid to late September.

Can you provide a graphic of this and your guesses on it (IIRC you used to do them looking at previous years’ threads)? Could be a nice way to see what could be coming or what the CFS is thinking.

Note: the model I have access to has poor resolution and it seems to refuse to put isobars so many pixels together, so things will look weaker the more zoomed out you are.

240H
300H

#1 is the wave currently at 45W
#2 is the wave currently just SW of Cabo Verde
#3 is the wave expected to exit Africa next Tuesday
#4 exits on Sep 6
#5 is a potential subtropical-origin system

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456H

#6 exits Sep 10
#7 exits Sep 14

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#8


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Zooming in on #1 and #2

at 228H
at 384H

These are the types of systems that I said you can extrapolate, given the resolution, that the model indicates a major hurricane. I don't take these runs any more seriously than the GFS at that time frame as so much can change, but the CFS has done well as an indicator of the level of activity we'd see--it correctly showed we'd have some activity around the Southeastern US during late July and likewise correctly showed that the Atlantic itself (outside the Caribbean/Gulf) would be fairly quiet during August (the few runs that I saw in the Gulf I disregarded as it showed two storms there at once--something I felt was feedback problems). All indicators are that September will be extremely active and will look similar, but more active, than 2018's first half of September, and given the tracks, also indicates that high pressure will dominate and storms are more likely to head towards land than they are to recurve.

If the number of storms plays out we're at Alpha by late September.

[aspen]

If we do get Alpha sometime in the second half of September, while peak environmental conditions are still present, there’s a decent chance it could become the Alpha hurricane of the year.

[Steve]

CFS showing 5-7 storms forming in the MDR in the first half of September, who of which look like they could be fairly strong. Also continuing trending towards much lower pressure in the Caribbean during October and a likely outbreak of storms there during Oct/Nov

It's just insane that there's at least a 50/50 chance we reach the end of the name list by mid to late September.

It also wants to stay closer to a more favorable MJO. It’s no mystery that we had a storm coming up in the Gulf from the south this time of year as we rolled into Phase 2. CFS wants to go back to the circle but hangs out adjacent to Phase 2 there. Only JMA is more deliberate.

[TheStormExpert]

CFS showing 5-7 storms forming in the MDR in the first half of September, who of which look like they could be fairly strong. Also continuing trending towards much lower pressure in the Caribbean during October and a likely outbreak of storms there during Oct/Nov

It's just insane that there's at least a 50/50 chance we reach the end of the name list by mid to late September.

In that case we’ll likely make it further down the Greek Alphabet when compared to 2005 which only got through Zeta!

[TheStormExpert]

If we do get Alpha sometime in the second half of September, while peak environmental conditions are still present, there’s a decent chance it could become the Alpha hurricane of the year.

Yeah and I’d like to see Omega become an Omega Hurricane! But chances of us getting through the Greek Alphabet are slim to none in my opinion.

[AnnularCane]

I have a feeling the final storm count is going to be...interesting, to say the least.

I also think it's safe to say that my preseason prediction of 17/9/4 will be going right down the toilet.

[TheStormExpert]

I have a feeling the final storm count is going to be...interesting, to say the least.

I also think it's safe to say that my preseason prediction of 17/9/4 will be going right down the toilet.

Could be in the 30’s depending on how quickly we exhaust this years name list.

[Deshaunrob17]

We're almost halfway through the season so I'll give my thoughts up to this point, as we're not likely to see any new storms for the remainder of August.

CFS has been showing several long trackers and threats to the Southeastern US for months now. While it's backed off on the spurt of MDR activity--a habit it shares with how the Euro worked years ago, to correctly show things in the longer range and backtrack once it gets closer--the shorter term models are now latching onto things in the tropical Atlantic changing in the coming weeks.

Laura has shown the western part of the basin is more than favorable and the open Atlantic, if the dry air can ever clear out, will likely be equally favorable as I haven't seen wave after wave get eaten by shear as we saw last year. I'm expecting the first half of September should be fairly active and might taper off in the latter half, followed by an active western-centered October--and it would not surprise me in the least if Laura ends up not being the strongest landfall of the year.

Yeah I'm feeling a 2005/2008 vibes this year but with Laura blossoming in the extreme Western Atlantic, doesn't the MJO phase/ progress have a big role in why it blossomed in that part of the Basin? I would assume the MJO now moves over Africa, the East Atlantic would be more favored over next 2 Weeks, but who knows. I think observing where the activity is the next two week will be important in really knowing if this season is West based or a mix

[Chris90]

I feel like part of the reason why it seems to be skewed to a seemingly west-based season is we’ve had record levels of activity, all towards the western portion of the basin, but that’s to be expected up to this point. The CV season doesn’t really start until right about now.

It’s going to be interesting to see if things manage to start getting classified farther east or if they keep waiting until they get farther west. I’m going to be watching these next 2 areas with interest to see how long it takes for them to get lift off. I think storms are going to start getting classified and ramping up between 30-50W very soon.

[NDG]

Very dusty this morning across the MDR & Caribbean but the Euro shows the dust settling down as we get into early September like it usually does as the dust/SAL outbreaks become much less frequent.

[TheStormExpert]

Very dusty this morning across the MDR & Caribbean but the Euro shows the dust settling down as we get into early September like it usually does as the dust/SAL outbreaks become much less frequent.

https://i.imgur.com/6EEr57S.png
https://i.imgur.com/eG5Sgsx.gif

Seems anomalously strong nonetheless for August 28th.

[TheStormExpert]

Right now my bet is on storms 1) Quickly developing and recurving East of the U.S. with potential impacts to Bermuda or 2) Storms struggling to develop prior to 50-60°W and becoming much more of a land threat. The latter might be more likely in my opinion with the current Saharan Air Layer still looming.

It also wouldn’t surprise me to see the Western Caribbean light up with a potential major come October or early-November with a track towards Cuba, Florida, or The Bahamas.

[Steve]

I feel like part of the reason why it seems to be skewed to a seemingly west-based season is we’ve had record levels of activity, all towards the western portion of the basin, but that’s to be expected up to this point. The CV season doesn’t really start until right about now.

It’s going to be interesting to see if things manage to start getting classified farther east or if they keep waiting until they get farther west. I’m going to be watching these next 2 areas with interest to see how long it takes for them to get lift off. I think storms are going to start getting classified and ramping up between 30-50W very soon.

Some should get classified farther east as they usually do in the middle of the season. Where I'd disagree with you is that it should be expected up to this point. On the one hand, we agree that early season named storms can often be found in the western basin where fronts, boundaries, splitting troughs and all interact with tropical influences (often late-season/hybrid storms too). Where I disagree is the quantity is unprecedented. I don't know what an average percentage is of systems that are west of 70W at some point in their tracks. But it can't possibly be around 70% like it has been so far this season. Again, I'll say that I have no idea what's going to happen overall the rest of 2020 beyond knowing we are in the period where multiple storms should be much stronger than almost anything we've had so far besides Laura.

[SFLcane]

Something is not right out in the main development region.

[CyclonicFury]

Something is not right out in the main development region.

I'm thinking it is more of the waves being large in size and struggling to consolidate quickly rather than something being "not right." I remember similar talk in August 2017 before Irma, though September is quickly approaching now. We'll have to see how active the MDR is during September because it seems near definite the MDR won't have a hurricane this month.

[TheStormExpert]

Something is not right out in the main development region.

I'm thinking it is more of the waves being large in size and struggling to consolidate quickly rather than something being "not right." I remember similar talk in August 2017 before Irma, though September is quickly approaching now. We'll have to see how active the MDR is during September because it seems near definite the MDR won't have a hurricane this month.

Well the MDR is what produces the big ACE producers so if waves are struggling until they get further west and north then total ACE this season might not be as high as some are forecasting unless we can squeeze out a long-tracker or two in September.