Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[AutoPenalti]

This AEW seems to have fizzled. Models have been very inconsistent in general the gfs was showing development of this wave for a few runs dropped it overnight.

Edit: it’s back on the 06z with a huge trof waiting to recurve it thankfully!

https://i.imgur.com/7lDsv5c.gif

That trough by the next couple of days will be either

A) Slower
B) Weaker
C) Non-existent

[lovingseason2013]

What 60’s? Not disagreeing with you SFLcane but the overall steering pattern forecasted for September for the past month or so reeked of ridging.

https://i.ibb.co/fds8dYK/AA02538-E-9970-4927-B3-A4-70-ED730-CB55-C.png

https://i.imgur.com/YLCMofV.gif

Maybe this is right as the NAO is forecasted to stay ever so slightly negative. But it’s 300+ hours out.

60s are at least a month, or probably 2 months off for down here, that graphic is wayyyyy wrong! Fake news LOL

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/YLCMofV.gif

Maybe this is right as the NAO is forecasted to stay ever so slightly negative. But it’s 300+ hours out.

60s are at least a month, or probably 2 months off for down here, that graphic is wayyyyy wrong! Fake news LOL

It’s September it could actually happen.

[lovingseason2013]

Maybe this is right as the NAO is forecasted to stay ever so slightly negative. But it’s 300+ hours out.

60s are at least a month, or probably 2 months off for down here, that graphic is wayyyyy wrong! Fake news LOL

It’s September it could actually happen.

Nope, probably not, and for sure not in the next 10 days. September is still summer here.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe this is right as the NAO is forecasted to stay ever so slightly negative. But it’s 300+ hours out.

60s are at least a month, or probably 2 months off for down here, that graphic is wayyyyy wrong! Fake news LOL

It’s September it could actually happen.

Yeah maybe the end of September. But right after Labor Day?

[SFLcane]

60s are at least a month, or probably 2 months off for down here, that graphic is wayyyyy wrong! Fake news LOL

It’s September it could actually happen.

Yeah maybe the end of September. But right after Labor Day?

The further we go into September the more likely troughs become.

[GCANE]

Models beginning to consistently show this moving into the Bahamas.
That's when a deep Rossby Wave will cross CONUS and likely setup an ARWB ahead of it.
Depending on timing, this could develop it very quickly in the Bahamas or shred it a bit later.
We have all seen what this setup did with Laura.

Obviously this will pull it to the mid to upper Atlantic Seaboard.
Watching this very closely next few days.
Could be some big-time nail biting ahead.

[SFLcane]

It’s September it could actually happen.

Yeah maybe the end of September. But right after Labor Day?

The further we go into September the more likely troughs become.

 https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/1299337540122619904

[toad strangler]

Models beginning to consistently show this moving into the Bahamas.
That's when a deep Rossby Wave will cross CONUS and likely setup an ARWB ahead of it.
Depending on timing, this could develop it very quickly in the Bahamas or shred it a bit later.
We have all seen what this setup did with Laura.

Obviously this will pull it to the mid to upper Atlantic Seaboard.
Watching this very closely next few days.
Could be some big-time nail biting ahead.


https://i.imgur.com/egAi7nj.png


https://i.imgur.com/0fzyj1R.png

Just way too far out to be this specific but I do enjoy all of your posts

[TheStormExpert]

It’s September it could actually happen.

Yeah maybe the end of September. But right after Labor Day?

The further we go into September the more likely troughs become.

Obviously. Just depends where the trough setups or parks itself and how strong it gets that will determine the track of these AEW’s.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah maybe the end of September. But right after Labor Day?

The further we go into September the more likely troughs become.

https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/1299337540122619904?

So a trough centered over the Midwest and Great Plains region would favor recurved East of the U.S. or does the trough have to be further East than that?

[crownweather]

The further we go into September the more likely troughs become.

https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/1299337540122619904?

So a trough centered over the Midwest and Great Plains region would favor recurved East of the U.S. or does the trough have to be further East than that?

It depends on the tilt of the base of the trough. If it is a neutral or negative tilted trough, then any approaching storms would be pulled right into the East Coast of the United States. On the other hand, a positive tilted trough, would likely lead to any approaching storms to be curved away from the US, but still threaten Bermuda or Canada.

[GCANE]

Models beginning to consistently show this moving into the Bahamas.
That's when a deep Rossby Wave will cross CONUS and likely setup an ARWB ahead of it.
Depending on timing, this could develop it very quickly in the Bahamas or shred it a bit later.
We have all seen what this setup did with Laura.

Obviously this will pull it to the mid to upper Atlantic Seaboard.
Watching this very closely next few days.
Could be some big-time nail biting ahead.


https://i.imgur.com/egAi7nj.png


https://i.imgur.com/0fzyj1R.png

Just way too far out to be this specific but I do enjoy all of your posts

Much thanks.

Its really about trend changes at this point.

BTW, GFS is pretty good at nailing large-scale synoptic features far in advance such as Rossby Waves.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/1299337540122619904?

So a trough centered over the Midwest and Great Plains region would favor recurved East of the U.S. or does the trough have to be further East than that?

It depends on the tilt of the base of the trough. If it is a neutral or negative tilted trough, then any approaching storms would be pulled right into the East Coast of the United States. On the other hand, a positive tilted trough, would likely lead to any approaching storms to be curved away from the US, but still threaten Bermuda or Canada.

So a negative tilted trough is from SW to NE, and a positive tilted one is from SE to NW?

[SconnieCane]

So a trough centered over the Midwest and Great Plains region would favor recurved East of the U.S. or does the trough have to be further East than that?

It depends on the tilt of the base of the trough. If it is a neutral or negative tilted trough, then any approaching storms would be pulled right into the East Coast of the United States. On the other hand, a positive tilted trough, would likely lead to any approaching storms to be curved away from the US, but still threaten Bermuda or Canada.

So a negative tilted trough is from SW to NE, and a positive tilted one is from SE to NW?

The opposite.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/

[Fancy1001]

Models beginning to consistently show this moving into the Bahamas.
That's when a deep Rossby Wave will cross CONUS and likely setup an ARWB ahead of it.
Depending on timing, this could develop it very quickly in the Bahamas or shred it a bit later.
We have all seen what this setup did with Laura.

Obviously this will pull it to the mid to upper Atlantic Seaboard.
Watching this very closely next few days.
Could be some big-time nail biting ahead.


https://i.imgur.com/egAi7nj.png


https://i.imgur.com/0fzyj1R.png

It looked to me like the storm was heading Northwest in the last few frames. I couldn't imagine if a storm of that size and strength hit New York City.

[GCANE]

Models beginning to consistently show this moving into the Bahamas.
That's when a deep Rossby Wave will cross CONUS and likely setup an ARWB ahead of it.
Depending on timing, this could develop it very quickly in the Bahamas or shred it a bit later.
We have all seen what this setup did with Laura.

Obviously this will pull it to the mid to upper Atlantic Seaboard.
Watching this very closely next few days.
Could be some big-time nail biting ahead.


https://i.imgur.com/egAi7nj.png


https://i.imgur.com/0fzyj1R.png

It looked to me like the storm was heading Northwest in the last few frames. I couldn't imagine if a storm of that size and strength hit New York City.

Yup, I was thinking the same.

[GCANE]

Appears the Rossby Wave and associated trof will be driven from a Polar Vortex

[Fancy1001]

Models beginning to consistently show this moving into the Bahamas.
That's when a deep Rossby Wave will cross CONUS and likely setup an ARWB ahead of it.
Depending on timing, this could develop it very quickly in the Bahamas or shred it a bit later.
We have all seen what this setup did with Laura.

Obviously this will pull it to the mid to upper Atlantic Seaboard.
Watching this very closely next few days.
Could be some big-time nail biting ahead.


https://i.imgur.com/egAi7nj.png


https://i.imgur.com/0fzyj1R.png

It looked to me like the storm was heading Northwest in the last few frames. I couldn't imagine if a storm of that size and strength hit New York City.

Yup, I was thinking the same.

Do you think the high pressure system above it would prevent it from going out to sea and force it inland, or do you think it would be strong enough to ignore the high pressure system and be forced Eastward by the trough, or at least I think it's at trough lol.

[Fancy1001]

How do you post an image from tropical tidbits