2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[HurricaneFrances04]

Might be a good time to post this humorous yet true graph.

https://i.ibb.co/RjqF8cP/18-F6-BBEA-392-F-4-E86-9-A1-B-12-D290606-AFB.jpg

Didn't the ECMWF Ensembles have Laura headed towards Houston though? lol

[SFLcane]

Just speculating here but In general I expect either Central America or recurves the next 2-3 weeks. Deep trof in long range gfs may have some merit is likely enhanced by recurving typhoon. We shall see how all this places out

[gatorcane]

We may see more than one recurving Typhoon which could cause some perturbations in the jet stream over North America and Atlantic downstream. There is a second Typhoon which global models are starting to latch onto. See WPAC thread for models: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120758&start=280

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: We may see more than one recurving Typhoon which could cause some perturbations in the jet stream over North America and Atlantic downstream. There is a second Typhoon which global models are starting to latch onto. See WPAC thread for models: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120758&start=280

Hi Gatorcane, I think there's a good chance the typhoon is feeding back on the background pattern, amplifying the meridional nature of the jet which leads to that trough amplified. Looks like two typhoons playing a role with the pattern

[SFLcane]

Para recurves last min before FL.

[TheStormExpert]

Para recurves last min before FL.

https://i.imgur.com/TUoJgSs.gif

Go figure! One of these days I’m going to loose count of how many near hits we’ve almost had in S.FL.

[EquusStorm]

Ok but recurving last minute before Florida is just another way of saying trashes the Bahamas hard only a year after Dorian, so hopefully a little further off the coast than that

[toad strangler]

Ok but recurving last minute before Florida is just another way of saying trashes the Bahamas hard only a year after Dorian, so hopefully a little further off the coast than that

It's Alice in Wonderland range.

[zhukm29]

Cursed GIF:

[SFLcane]

Welcome to December per GFS typhoon enhanced ..

[toad strangler]

Welcome to December per GFS typhoon enhanced ..

https://i.imgur.com/vQPvA05.png

That will shut the whole basin down. See you all in 2021

[ronjon]

Welcome to December per GFS typhoon enhanced ..

https://i.imgur.com/vQPvA05.png

That will shut the whole basin down. See you all in 2021

LOL - GFS is comical at long ranges. GFS para is saying..what trough?

[TheStormExpert]

Ok but recurving last minute before Florida is just another way of saying trashes the Bahamas hard only a year after Dorian, so hopefully a little further off the coast than that

It's Alice in Wonderland range.

For all we know this could end up being yet another Gulf hurricane as that seems to be the hotspot this season.

[TheStormExpert]

Welcome to December per GFS typhoon enhanced ..

https://i.imgur.com/vQPvA05.png

Of course when December actually comes a trough like this will be nowhere in sight to bring Florida some colder weather!

[AutoPenalti]

That’s almost El Niño-esque LMFAO

[SFLcane]

That’s almost El Niño-esque LMFAO

No, El Nino doesn't cause troughs. 2010 was a huge La Nina and had those troughs.

60's into northern FL. on the latest GFS.

[AutoPenalti]

That’s almost El Niño-esque LMFAO

No, El Nino doesn't cause troughs. 2010 was a huge La Nina and had those troughs.

60's into northern FL. on the latest GFS.

True, but I'm so used to those kinds of troughs happening during El Nino years.

[SFLcane]

That’s almost El Niño-esque LMFAO

No, El Nino doesn't cause troughs. 2010 was a huge La Nina and had those troughs.

60's into northern FL. on the latest GFS.

True, but I'm so used to those kinds of troughs happening during El Nino years.

Regardless it's going to be an amplified pattern.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That’s almost El Niño-esque LMFAO

No, El Nino doesn't cause troughs. 2010 was a huge La Nina and had those troughs.

60's into northern FL. on the latest GFS.

60's in Florida in early-September?

Not happening. Trough is overdone.

[gatorcane]

That’s almost El Niño-esque LMFAO

No, El Nino doesn't cause troughs. 2010 was a huge La Nina and had those troughs.

60's into northern FL. on the latest GFS.

60's in Florida in early-September?

Not happening. Trough is overdone.

Those 60s are in the far NW Panhandle, so possible. 50s along the northern gulf coast. I think the GFS is likely too deep on this trough (280+ hours is likely not going to verify) but we can take it as a sign fall is around the corner: