2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

In my 20+ years of tracking tc’s I have never seen such a year we’re reliable models have been so inconsistent.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1299440965267132416

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe this lends more credit to the GFS showing a anomalously amplified trough across the eastern U.S. just after Labor Day.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1299327307992248320

[toad strangler]

ACE could bust but the overall forecast still verify. Also, lots of talk today about a modeled early big trough. Troughs are the East coast CONUS friend. Not the Gulf Coast. So early still.

[Hammy]

Maybe this lends more credit to the GFS showing a anomalously amplified trough across the eastern U.S. just after Labor Day.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1299327307992248320

I won't trust the models showing a hint of fall until they quit pretending the peak of hurricane season is over like they've been doing for months.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe this lends more credit to the GFS showing a anomalously amplified trough across the eastern U.S. just after Labor Day.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1299327307992248320

I won't trust the models showing a hint of fall until they quit pretending the peak of hurricane season is over like they've been doing for months.

Well you have both “supposedly” reliable global models showing it along with two typhoons getting ready to recurve in the West Pacific so it may be onto something.

Then again it wasn’t too long ago that several were saying a very dangerous steering pattern was setting up for September with strong ridging over the NW Atlantic and the NE U.S.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1299353911422312450

[SFLcane]

Maybe this lends more credit to the GFS showing a anomalously amplified trough across the eastern U.S. just after Labor Day.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1299327307992248320

I won't trust the models showing a hint of fall until they quit pretending the peak of hurricane season is over like they've been doing for months.

Well you have both “supposedly” reliable global models showing it along with two typhoons getting ready to recurve in the West Pacific so it may be onto something.

Then again it wasn’t too long ago that several were saying a very dangerous steering pattern was setting up for September with strong ridging over the NW Atlantic and the NE U.S.

Well recurving typhoons can change things... That's why seasonal forecast don't do steering prediction.

[toad strangler]

I won't trust the models showing a hint of fall until they quit pretending the peak of hurricane season is over like they've been doing for months.

Well you have both “supposedly” reliable global models showing it along with two typhoons getting ready to recurve in the West Pacific so it may be onto something.

Then again it wasn’t too long ago that several were saying a very dangerous steering pattern was setting up for September with strong ridging over the NW Atlantic and the NE U.S.

Well recurving typhoons can change things... That's why seasonal forecast don't do steering prediction.

Right, and these kinks in the flow created by these re-curving far W typhoons can be both helpful and detrimental to an area depending on the location of any storm that may be present. It's not like the idea of global activity having an influence on a more regional area is a secret or newly discovered science.

[captainbarbossa19]

Maybe this lends more credit to the GFS showing a anomalously amplified trough across the eastern U.S. just after Labor Day.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1299327307992248320

I won't trust the models showing a hint of fall until they quit pretending the peak of hurricane season is over like they've been doing for months.

Well you have both “supposedly” reliable global models showing it along with two typhoons getting ready to recurve in the West Pacific so it may be onto something.

Then again it wasn’t too long ago that several were saying a very dangerous steering pattern was setting up for September with strong ridging over the NW Atlantic and the NE U.S.

I suspect that the peak is not even here yet given how unreliable the models have been. Climatology would agree that the peak is not quite here either. I think Laura may have been the first of several storms still to come. I think at least one more storm is going to be in the Gulf later this season and could be another major hurricane. The Gulf still has plenty of energy that could be released.

[Steve]

Maybe this lends more credit to the GFS showing a anomalously amplified trough across the eastern U.S. just after Labor Day.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1299327307992248320

I won't trust the models showing a hint of fall until they quit pretending the peak of hurricane season is over like they've been doing for months.

Well you have both “supposedly” reliable global models showing it along with two typhoons getting ready to recurve in the West Pacific so it may be onto something.

Then again it wasn’t too long ago that several were saying a very dangerous steering pattern was setting up for September with strong ridging over the NW Atlantic and the NE U.S.

Some people did. I could see periods of back and forth. That’s usually how the later summer and fall go. Even if we have eastern troughing, Atlantic is too warm for high pressure not to come back regardless of whether it is semi permanent.

[chaser1]

ACE could bust but the overall forecast still verify. Also, lots of talk today about a modeled early big trough. Troughs are the East coast CONUS friend. Not the Gulf Coast. So early still.

True, though it seems that it may remain primarily Great Lakes well south around the Mississippi valley area? So far it seems as if this will remain well west of US Coastline. May offer some temporary protection to Florida from an "east-approach" but I could still see it to spell trouble for the NE Conus. NO Bueno if something formed ahead of that trough in the W. Carib though.

[storminabox]

Something is not right out in the main development region.

I definitely agree with this. It seems way to dry/dusty for this point in the season considering the supposedly favorable state of the MJO. At this point in 2017, a lot of the dust was subsiding and Irma was getting ready to form. I would much prefer an active MDR because that means more ACE and also a higher chance for the storms to recurve. It’s always bad when the waves take until they get closer to land to flare up. The unfavorable MDR definitely is a tad perplexing though.

[Shell Mound]

Something is not right out in the main development region.

I definitely agree with this. It seems way too dry/dusty for this point in the season considering the supposedly favourable state of the MJO.

Most probably the ITCZ is well north of its typical location, so waves are exiting over cooler SSTs and encountering more stable air. Additionally, the waves are so amplified that large amounts of dust advect offshore, thanks to the enhanced African monsoon and below-average MSLP. Otherwise, conditions are quite conducive, and VWS is below average due to an absence of TUTTs:

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1299114114535632899

[NDG]

Very dusty this morning across the MDR & Caribbean but the Euro shows the dust settling down as we get into early September like it usually does as the dust/SAL outbreaks become much less frequent.

https://i.imgur.com/6EEr57S.png
https://i.imgur.com/eG5Sgsx.gif

Seems anomalously strong nonetheless for August 28th.

Yes, it the dust outbreak going through the Caribbean right now is a bit anomalous for this time of the year.
Once that goes through I would expect possible development in the western basin from the AEWs to the east of the Caribbean.

[BYG Jacob]

All dust means right now is the waves don't develop until the Caribbean. I don't need to explain how bad that is.

[St0rmTh0r]

All dust means right now is the waves don't develop until the Caribbean. I don't need to explain how bad that is.

Yes this is actually worse and favors more land falling hurricanes.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1299415095840305153

[Deshaunrob17]

All dust means right now is the waves don't develop until the Caribbean. I don't need to explain how bad that is.

Yes this is actually worse and favors more land falling hurricanes.

2008 is a very good analog for this year... We've already seen how the Greater Antillies have been targeted 2 times already and we had Gulf and Eastcoast threats.... Notice how the Eastern Caribbean had little impacts so far.Also, this isn't 2018 with lots of activity in the NE Atlantic.
But things could change. Who knows maybe the MDR becomes very favorable in September.. So far the West Atlantic seems to be the spot for activity

[Hammy]

I've been going through the 2013 archives I'm noticing similarities--albeit in the opposite direction. Both years the models had struggled significantly.

While 2013 there were unfavorable elements the models weren't picking up (that the pattern wasn't simply part of the typical atmospheric phases), and were thus developing and strengthening everything, it seems like there's some favorable background factor that for whatever reason the models just aren't able to pick up on and thus are either developing nothing, not strengthening them (see Laura for example), or simply not being consistent when they finally do start showing development.



One visible anomaly though (which is likely contributing to the MDR being less active than it otherwise has the potential for) is the ITCZ is well north of where it's normally at--it's almost as if the entire Atlantic weather pattern has shifted west by thousands of miles. Marco's entire genesis, track, and trough where it's at reminded me of something you'd see closer to 60-70W rather than in the Gulf, and the subtropical-origin systems this year seem more typical of storms forming in the central or northeastern Atlantic, not off the east coast.

In addition to some delayed development this is leading to storms either recurving much further west than normal--such as Isaias track--or simply ending up stronger than you'd expect for the initial condition of the waves--Hanna and Laura being examples.

[MetroMike]

http://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1299415095840305153?s=20

This seems pretty much based on climo. Don't see this occurring.