Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 99L)

[USTropics]

This is what I currently have for observed AEWs in the NATL, and how they should move in the next 5 days (as analyzed on the 12z GFS run):

[Hurrilurker]

watching fo convection to build in assoicaition with that vort rotating northward.

https://i.ibb.co/T1PnzmH/48700287.gif

That's a good view, I'm seeing what looks like rotation between the two, south of the northern blob and west of the southeastern blob.

[chaser1]

I DO remember what you're talking about. Trying to recall where or from what link might require too much brain cell regeneration, Frank. I'll see if I can dig it up though. Hopefully it'll lead to finding a link that's not long broken.

Thanks chaser1, man I searched all over the internet and can’t find it,,, I remember it was used often in the past comparing how the surges of the same systems would vary due to the continental slope of the shoreline... as I best can recall I think Bay St Louis MS had like a 2.0 multiplier while Biloxi had a 1.8, but that all I can recall... it’s like the dang thing disappeared from the www!

Not sure if this is the one you're referencing. You can see surge for specific areas and filter by storm strength:
https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

Frank, whatcha think? It's certainly not the same map/graph that I thought I recalled. As you alluded to, I think it accentuated the continental slope better emphasizing the relationship of coastal depth to the resulting build up of storm surge. That said, thanks USTropics.... this is a fantastic and simple user very friendly tool. While it doesn't accentuate the slope and depth of the shelf, it clearly must take it into account along with local topography and local elevation into affect. My only problem with this map is that for some reason when you continue to zoom in, all graphic display of flood areas suddenly disappear?

[chaser1]

watching fo convection to build in assoicaition with that vort rotating northward.

https://i.ibb.co/T1PnzmH/48700287.gif

That's a good view, I'm seeing what looks like rotation between the two, south of the northern blob and west of the southeastern blob.

Yep, clearly see the low level rotation. What's odd is that the 400-700 mb shear maps suggest fairly conducive conditions yet one can clearly see the NNE upper level shear there too. Looking forward, it seems that the upper 200mb don't really relax and in fact appear to increase in vorticity as the wave moves west into the E. Caribbean. My guess is that this will struggle to maintain any centralized convection anytime soon. Poor thing, it looks like a lost LLC looking for it's parent MLC LOL.

[Frank P]

Thanks chaser1, man I searched all over the internet and can’t find it,,, I remember it was used often in the past comparing how the surges of the same systems would vary due to the continental slope of the shoreline... as I best can recall I think Bay St Louis MS had like a 2.0 multiplier while Biloxi had a 1.8, but that all I can recall... it’s like the dang thing disappeared from the www!

Not sure if this is the one you're referencing. You can see surge for specific areas and filter by storm strength:
https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

Frank, whatcha think? It's certainly not the same map/graph that I thought I recalled. As you alluded to, I think it accentuated the continental slope better emphasizing the relationship of coastal depth to the resulting build up of storm surge. That said, thanks USTropics.... this is a fantastic and simple user very friendly tool. While it doesn't accentuate the slope and depth of the shelf, it clearly must take it into account along with local topography and local elevation into affect. My only problem with this map is that for some reason when you continue to zoom in, all graphic display of flood areas suddenly disappear?

Yeah it’s pretty good chaser1 and I had the same problem as you trying to zoom in...
thanks will bookmark for future use!

[Cpv17]

Not impressed with this wave. Looked much better a couple days ago. Might get it’s act together towards the central Caribbean.

[abajan]

Rotation clearly visible in this loop. But I don't know whether it's happening at the mid levels or at the surface.

[cycloneye]

Rotation clearly visible in this loop. But I don't know whether it's happening at the mid levels or at the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/Ucgq7lb.gif

How is the weather in Barbados?

[abajan]

Rotation clearly visible in this loop. But I don't know whether it's happening at the mid levels or at the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/Ucgq7lb.gif

How is the weather in Barbados?

From various reports in a local Facebook group, it appears some parts of the island had quite a bit of rain. But my area (in the southwest) hardly had any. There was some thunder earlier tonight too. I haven't seen any reports of significant gusty winds, though.

[chaser1]

Rotation clearly visible in this loop. But I don't know whether it's happening at the mid levels or at the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/Ucgq7lb.gif

How is the weather in Barbados?

From various reports in a local Facebook group, it appears some parts of the island had quite a bit of rain. But my area (in the southwest) hardly had any. There was some thunder earlier tonight too. I haven't seen any reports of significant gusty winds, though.

I'd guess only the slightest drop in surface pressure there? From viewing this earlier I thought that that this looked to be primarily a mid-level feature. There clearly was a LLC vort that appeared this morning to be ejected northward from N. Venezuela and lagging south and east of the disturbance. Maybe it got pulled up and into the broader area of disturbed weather?

Earlier today there was decent support from the GEM and ICON for this to trek west and develop into a T.S. before landfalling near or over Honduras.

[abajan]

Rotation clearly visible in this loop. But I don't know whether it's happening at the mid levels or at the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/Ucgq7lb.gif

How is the weather in Barbados?

From various reports in a local Facebook group, it appears some parts of the island had quite a bit of rain. But my area (in the southwest) hardly had any. There was some thunder earlier tonight too. I haven't seen any reports of significant gusty winds, though.

Since posting the preceding, we got a lot more rain overnight. But from the following loop I can see Dominica got the lion's share:

[cycloneye]

Invest 99L is up