ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2020083012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 625W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al762020 to al992020,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was for this wave.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121254

[NDG]

Looking good this morning.
Fairly sharp trough with it.

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity not as strung out this morning.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[tailgater]

I just about to post a think the chances of developing are a little higher or at the very least wording to the effect getting somewhat better organized

[Frank P]

Definitely improving, nice sat presentation on this wave this morning... maybe old grandmaw might just be coming sooner rather than later oppps , I just saw the red cone off the east coast... maybe no Nana for you 99L!??

[SFLcane]

Straight westward into CA seems likely here.

[plasticup]

This looks a lot better than the 20/30 NHC is giving it. I expect we’ll see 40/60 or higher with the next update.

[MarioProtVI]

SHEAR (KT) 6 14 16 14 15 15 12 11 7 7 7 4 8 4 10 11 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 -1 1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 3 3 0 4 -2
SHEAR DIR 58 75 90 98 80 79 32 50 9 43 31 123 357 23 352 54 73
SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 29.0 28.7 28.6 29.2 29.7 31.0 31.4 29.4 28.9 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 159 150 151 150 150 148 146 153 148 146 156 164 172 172 158 150 141
ADJ. POT. INT. 159 150 151 150 150 147 145 150 146 144 154 162 172 172 153 143 131
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 9 7 9 6
700-500 MB RH 57 63 67 64 63 66 66 68 70 73 73 74 73 72 74 73 77


According to SHIPS conditions for the most part seem favorable except for a slight increase in shear before it decreases again. If this can get going quick and can take advantage maybe we could see a decently strong TS, maybe even a hurricane can not be ruled out out of this.

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity is increasing and nicely stacked from 925mb-700mb.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

It also has an anti-cyclone above it.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[aspen]

This’ll be another name race like 97L and 98L. The 40/70 AOI has had more model support, but it won’t be able to start developing for another 24-36 hours, while 99L has become somewhat better organized. Maybe it’ll be another sneaky development with little model support, like Edouard or Josephine.

[FixySLN]

I don't know why I thought we deserved a break.

EARLY consensus shows it running into SA and dying before making big boy moves. I'd be ok with that.

[AnnularCane]

Lull's over. Everybody rise and shine!

[Aric Dunn]

Decent convection and we already know there is a broad closed wind field.

So if convection begins to concentrate in one particular area it really would not take all too much time to become a TD.

If it does develop and become a decently stacked TS. there is a break in the 500 MB steering and it could cross Yucatan into BOC

[chaser1]

This’ll be another name race like 97L and 98L. The 40/70 AOI has had more model support, but it won’t be able to start developing for another 24-36 hours, while 99L has become somewhat better organized. Maybe it’ll be another sneaky development with little model support, like Edouard or Josephine.

Stamp her name and book her ticket. Nana's going to Central America.

[AnnularCane]

This’ll be another name race like 97L and 98L. The 40/70 AOI has had more model support, but it won’t be able to start developing for another 24-36 hours, while 99L has become somewhat better organized. Maybe it’ll be another sneaky development with little model support, like Edouard or Josephine.

Stamp her name and book her ticket. Nana's going to Central America.

Either that or heading off the east coast.

Probably shouldn't assign names to them when there are several of them out there.

[toad strangler]

How Low Can Ya Go, How Low Can Ya Go

[NDG]

Already a broad circulation with it this morning, looks better than I thought it was going to be on ASCAT this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

I mean It really would not take much from this point.. as I mentioned a minute ago.

just some concentrated convection and it would tighten right up..

the hardest part is already done..

lots of west winds.

[chaser1]

Lull's over. Everybody rise and shine!

Not much rest there?! Barely even a cat-nap

[Nimbus]

There was storm relative circulation yesterday, but I'm surprised the ASCAT picked up west winds.
Would be a depression if it were headed into favorable conditions.