ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#41 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:53 pm

aspen wrote:Is there some dry air in the Caribbean that is responsible for the models weakening or not developing 99L?


They don't seem to develop anything this year without a plane being in there first. I'm pretty sure the storms they're currently developing will vanish once the incipient wave is actually present only for them to later develop as well.
3 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#42 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:56 pm

A westward-moving tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure
area is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea just west of the
Windward Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves moves westward at about 15
mph across the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
3 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

MarioProtVI
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 932
Age: 23
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#43 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:01 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
A westward-moving tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure
area is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea just west of the
Windward Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves moves westward at about 15
mph across the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

This is a lock for Nana at this point.
1 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1696
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#44 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:07 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
A westward-moving tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure
area is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea just west of the
Windward Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves moves westward at about 15
mph across the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


Well then. :eek:
3 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#45 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:07 pm

Water vapor imagery shows a large plume of dry air and shear in the Caribbean. However, if 99L’s anticyclone remains on top of it, that should act like a protective bubble to help it develop. The GFS/Euro must be showing 99L and the anticyclone drifting apart.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#46 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:08 pm

weird they issued a special TWO at 12..

then at 2pm upped the chances even more..
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1696
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#47 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:14 pm

aspen wrote:Water vapor imagery shows a large plume of dry air and shear in the Caribbean. However, if 99L’s anticyclone remains on top of it, that should act like a protective bubble to help it develop. The GFS/Euro must be showing 99L and the anticyclone drifting apart.


The GFS and Euro don’t even know why they don’t show development. Their ability to predict TCG this season has been embarrassing.
6 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#48 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:16 pm

The only things that have changed over the last year or two in terms of data are the new GOES satellites and fewer ACARS obs due to COVID.
2 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#49 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:16 pm

hmmm tower popping right under the MLC..

lets see if that sustains.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5274
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#50 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:weird they issued a special TWO at 12..

then at 2pm upped the chances even more..


Weird but functionally acceptable no watches or warnings to be issued today, probably cut backs at the NHC and its Sunday. Are you waiting for model output for the track?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#51 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:20 pm

Nimbus wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:weird they issued a special TWO at 12..

then at 2pm upped the chances even more..


Weird but functionally acceptable no watches or warnings to be issued today, probably cut backs at the NHC and its Sunday. Are you waiting for model output for the track?


Track is very straightforward. farthest north would possible be the southern BOC>
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#52 Postby hipshot » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 99, 2020083012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 625W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al762020 to al992020,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was for this wave.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121254

How do they determine the alpha-numeric naming system for these invests. I've been monitoring these boards for years and always
thought to ask and never have.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#53 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:25 pm

hipshot wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
AL, 99, 2020083012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 625W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al762020 to al992020,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was for this wave.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121254

How do they determine the alpha-numeric naming system for these invests. I've been monitoring these boards for years and always
thought to ask and never have.


AL (or L) is for the Atlantic. And it goes from 90 to 99 and then repeats.
1 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#54 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:33 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5274
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#55 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:weird they issued a special TWO at 12..

then at 2pm upped the chances even more..


Weird but functionally acceptable no watches or warnings to be issued today, probably cut backs at the NHC and its Sunday. Are you waiting for model output for the track?


Track is very straightforward. farthest north would possible be the southern BOC>


There is a little coastal Mexican town named Moron just south of the tropic?

Recon is tasking an investigation flight at 15.5 degrees south of Kingston for Tuesday and Wednesday the ridge is going to start receding.
Maybe the 18z models will show something?
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#56 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:48 pm

Invest 99L looks pretty darn good for a system with minimal model support for genesis. In my opinion, it's not that far off right now. I think a sustained convective burst near the MLC over the next few hours could put it over the edge. I'd keep a close eye on this system if I lived in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan.

Image
11 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#57 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:50 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Invest 99L looks pretty darn good for a system with minimal model support for genesis. In my opinion, it's not that far off right now. I think a sustained convective burst near the MLC over the next few hours could put it over the edge. I'd keep a close eye on this system if I lived in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan.

https://i.imgur.com/6nKzcts.gif


Yeah, kind of been the going theme this year with the models.

and its those few towers popping up now under that MLC that are most intriguing ...
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5274
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#58 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:53 pm

A single lightning flash just south of 15N and we all jump LOL.
2 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#59 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:56 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
tailgater wrote:Well we are just past D max, let’s see if the convection wanes over the next 8 hrs.
https://i.imgur.com/9ITCnFZ.png


Diurnal maximum happens at sunrise since this is when thunderstorm activity is maximized due to a strong temperature decrease with height. When the sun rises, the middle and upper troposphere warms, and reduces this temperature decrease with height. Temperatures close to the surface do not change very much because of the ocean surface temperatures being relatively constant throughout the day.

So we are actually pretty close to diurnal minimum, since we are close to the middle of the day.

Yes that is what I was saying,
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Do_For_Love
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 34
Joined: Sat May 09, 2015 7:47 am
Location: Delaware

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#60 Postby Do_For_Love » Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:17 pm

Pretty good looking disturbance. Agree with others that the NHC numbers should be looked at over models...they had trouble developing a lot of storms this year. Maybe it will sneak in and develop by tomorrow night to give August it's 5th named storm.
1 likes   
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Fay '20, Isaias '20, Ida '21


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests