2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[storminabox]

ACE is actually one of the key metrics I use to deem how active a season is. It is a great metric that takes into account the QUALITY of the storms that form in a given year. However, as others have mentioned, it means nothing for impacts.

[USTropics]

Given how the other basins are performing to date, this season really has a 2017/2010/1999/1998 vibe in terms of ACE progression. The Atlantic is the only one of the major 3 ACE producing basins to currently be overperforming. Here is the breakdown:

Code: Select all

Atlantic - 42.1 ACE (28.7 climo norm)
EPAC - 48.2 ACE (73.7 climo norm)
WPAC - 29.5 (124.5 climo norm)


All four seasons were some of the worst ACE performing seasons for WPAC (in the bottom 6 all time I believe), which it's on track for currently. In addition, 3/4 of those seasons had overperforming ACE values in the North Indian Ocean, which we are also currently observing (19.2 observed, 7.2 climo norm). Here is a breakdown for 2017, 2010, 1999, and 1998 seasons from September - end of season:

2017


2010


1999


1998

[aspen]

Given how the other basins are performing to date, this season really has a 2017/2010/1999/1998 vibe in terms of ACE progression. The Atlantic is the only one of the major 3 ACE producing basins to currently be overperforming. Here is the breakdown:

Code: Select all

Atlantic - 42.1 ACE (28.7 climo norm)
EPAC - 48.2 ACE (73.7 climo norm)
WPAC - 29.5 (124.5 climo norm)


All four seasons were some of the worst ACE performing seasons for WPAC (in the bottom 6 all time I believe), which it's on track for currently. In addition, 3/4 of those seasons had overperforming ACE values in the North Indian Ocean, which we are also currently observing (19.2 observed, 7.2 climo norm). Here is a breakdown for 2017, 2010, 1999, and 1998 seasons from September - end of season:

2017
https://i.imgur.com/i5rnGKr.png

2010
https://i.imgur.com/UTZ5hTe.png

1999
https://i.imgur.com/uzHxgbO.png

1998
https://i.imgur.com/7ucGTmn.png

These seasons show that we shouldn’t be casting doubt on 2020 for the lack of long-tracking hurricanes just yet. While 1998 had Bonnie and Charley by the end of August, 1999 had Bret and Cindy, and 2010 had Danielle and Earl, all three seasons ended up with multiple high ACE long trackers forming after the first week of September and before the end of the month. 1998 specifically had a very active second half of September, and in 2017, Irma had only just formed by this time.
—1998: 135 kt Georges (16 days), 80 kt Ivan (8 days), 90 kt Jeanne (10 days), 90 kt Karl (5 days)
—1999: 135 kt Floyd (10 days), 130 kt Gert (12 days)
—2010: 135 kt Igor (13 days), 120 kt Julia (8 days)

[St0rmTh0r]

Given how the other basins are performing to date, this season really has a 2017/2010/1999/1998 vibe in terms of ACE progression. The Atlantic is the only one of the major 3 ACE producing basins to currently be overperforming. Here is the breakdown:

Code: Select all

Atlantic - 42.1 ACE (28.7 climo norm)
EPAC - 48.2 ACE (73.7 climo norm)
WPAC - 29.5 (124.5 climo norm)


All four seasons were some of the worst ACE performing seasons for WPAC (in the bottom 6 all time I believe), which it's on track for currently. In addition, 3/4 of those seasons had overperforming ACE values in the North Indian Ocean, which we are also currently observing (19.2 observed, 7.2 climo norm). Here is a breakdown for 2017, 2010, 1999, and 1998 seasons from September - end of season:

2017
https://i.imgur.com/i5rnGKr.png

2010
https://i.imgur.com/UTZ5hTe.png

1999
https://i.imgur.com/uzHxgbO.png

1998
https://i.imgur.com/7ucGTmn.png

These seasons show that we shouldn’t be casting doubt on 2020 for the lack of long-tracking hurricanes just yet. While 1998 had Bonnie and Charley by the end of August, 1999 had Bret and Cindy, and 2010 had Danielle and Earl, all three seasons ended up with multiple high ACE long trackers forming after the first week of September and before the end of the month. 1998 specifically had a very active second half of September, and in 2017, Irma had only just formed by this time.
—1998: 135 kt Georges (16 days), 80 kt Ivan (8 days), 90 kt Jeanne (10 days), 90 kt Karl (5 days)
—1999: 135 kt Floyd (10 days), 130 kt Gert (12 days)
—2010: 135 kt Igor (13 days), 120 kt Julia (8 days)

Yes still far too early to cancel Cape Verde season this is the time when it starts and reaches its peak. I have no doubts we will see several long trackers before September ends. The atmosphere has not reached peak favorability yet. SAL is expected to diminish significantly in the next 2 weeks with several waves in the long range showing up on models. Real season is just about to start.

[NDG]

Do you guys realize that by this same time in 2017 the Atlantic Basin was at only 27 ACE, I know it changed just a few days later when Irma formed but like I said earlier todaythe CV long tracking hurricanes are just a few days away once the SAL/dust start clearing the basin like it did in 2017.
Is fun to go back to that 2017 thread and see all of the crap that was being said of what a bust the forecasted ACE was going to be, lol.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&start=120

[AnnularCane]

Do you guys realize that by this same time in 2017 the Atlantic Basin was at only 27 ACE, I know it changed just a few days later when Irma formed but like I said earlier todaythe CV long tracking hurricanes are just a few days away once the SAL/dust start clearing the basin like it did in 2017.
Is fun to go back to that 2017 thread and see all of the crap that was being said of what a bust the forecasted ACE was going to be, lol.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&start=120

Harvey didn't produce much ACE?

[NDG]

Do you guys realize that by this same time in 2017 the Atlantic Basin was at only 27 ACE, I know it changed just a few days later when Irma formed but like I said earlier todaythe CV long tracking hurricanes are just a few days away once the SAL/dust start clearing the basin like it did in 2017.
Is fun to go back to that 2017 thread and see all of the crap that was being said of what a bust the forecasted ACE was going to be, lol.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&start=120

Harvey didn't produce much ACE?

Only around 9 ACE, it was weak while it tracked through the Caribbean and not becoming a hurricane until it reached the GOM, its peak intensity was short lived as it was right before making landfall.

[AnnularCane]

Do you guys realize that by this same time in 2017 the Atlantic Basin was at only 27 ACE, I know it changed just a few days later when Irma formed but like I said earlier todaythe CV long tracking hurricanes are just a few days away once the SAL/dust start clearing the basin like it did in 2017.
Is fun to go back to that 2017 thread and see all of the crap that was being said of what a bust the forecasted ACE was going to be, lol.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&start=120

Harvey didn't produce much ACE?

Only around 9 ACE, it was weak while it tracked through the Caribbean and not becoming a hurricane until it reached the GOM, its peak intensity was short lived as it was right before making landfall.

Oh, I guess that is true.

I don't know much about ACE.

[Hammy]

Do you guys realize that by this same time in 2017 the Atlantic Basin was at only 27 ACE, I know it changed just a few days later when Irma formed but like I said earlier todaythe CV long tracking hurricanes are just a few days away once the SAL/dust start clearing the basin like it did in 2017.
Is fun to go back to that 2017 thread and see all of the crap that was being said of what a bust the forecasted ACE was going to be, lol.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&start=120

I don't personally think the dust or dry air is really inhibiting the MDR this year, but instead that the ITCZ is too far north and African monsoon trough too far out in the Atlantic for anything to really get organized that far east. 2017's waves weren't these large West Pacific-esque gyres that have been prominent this year moving across the open ocean.

[SconnieCane]

Do you guys realize that by this same time in 2017 the Atlantic Basin was at only 27 ACE, I know it changed just a few days later when Irma formed but like I said earlier todaythe CV long tracking hurricanes are just a few days away once the SAL/dust start clearing the basin like it did in 2017.
Is fun to go back to that 2017 thread and see all of the crap that was being said of what a bust the forecasted ACE was going to be, lol.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&start=120

I don't personally think the dust or dry air is really inhibiting the MDR this year, but instead that the ITCZ is too far north and African monsoon trough too far out in the Atlantic for anything to really get organized that far east. 2017's waves weren't these large West Pacific-esque gyres that have been prominent this year moving across the open ocean.

Given the WPAC's reputation, I'm surprised that isn't a net plus for tropical cyclogenesis.

[NDG]

Do you guys realize that by this same time in 2017 the Atlantic Basin was at only 27 ACE, I know it changed just a few days later when Irma formed but like I said earlier todaythe CV long tracking hurricanes are just a few days away once the SAL/dust start clearing the basin like it did in 2017.
Is fun to go back to that 2017 thread and see all of the crap that was being said of what a bust the forecasted ACE was going to be, lol.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&start=120

I don't personally think the dust or dry air is really inhibiting the MDR this year, but instead that the ITCZ is too far north and African monsoon trough too far out in the Atlantic for anything to really get organized that far east. 2017's waves weren't these large West Pacific-esque gyres that have been prominent this year moving across the open ocean.

I am sure that has a lot to do with it but there also not just a coincidence that when the SAl/dust has been present to the north of these AEWs that they struggle to organize or strengthen much east of the Lesser Antilles.
IMO.
It happened in August of 2017 also, I have watched the archived images of how much dust there was also.

[SFLcane]

Could be your reason why the GFS has no development through the peak of the season.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1300396832791638016

[MarioProtVI]

Could be your reason why the GFS has no development through the peak of the season.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1300396832791638016?

Or the model just sucks at genesis this year. Could be either one and I’m leaning towards the latter.

[TheStormExpert]

Could be your reason why the GFS has no development through the peak of the season.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1300396832791638016?

Or the model just sucks at genesis this year. Could be either one and I’m leaning towards the latter.

We’re literally a week and a half away from the peak day, why aren’t we seeing anything!?

I actually liked it better when the models would spin up phantom storms and give us at least something to talk about.

[aspen]

Could be your reason why the GFS has no development through the peak of the season.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1300396832791638016?

Or the model just sucks at genesis this year. Could be either one and I’m leaning towards the latter.

We’re literally a week and a half away from the peak day, why aren’t we seeing anything!?

I actually liked it better when the models would spin up phantom storms and give us at least something to talk about.

The GFS is showing development in the EPac, while there are two active cherries in the Atlantic that should become Nana and Omar this week. Peak season activity is coming whether the models want it or not.

[TheStormExpert]

Or the model just sucks at genesis this year. Could be either one and I’m leaning towards the latter.

We’re literally a week and a half away from the peak day, why aren’t we seeing anything!?

I actually liked it better when the models would spin up phantom storms and give us at least something to talk about.

The GFS is showing development in the EPac, while there are two active cherries in the Atlantic that should become Nana and Omar this week. Peak season activity is coming whether the models want it or not.

The clock is ticking!!

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300417300420538369

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300417300420538369

Not very familiar with all of this, but what I think I’m gathering is a relatively unfavorable MDR and a trough over the east central US. Seems pretty clear this could subdue a textbook Cape Verde season, but I am uneasy about the potential implications this has for homegrown development. This is speculation, but I really do think we will be biting our nails in the second half of September and most of October if that pattern manifests and holds.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300417300420538369

Not very familiar with all of this, but what I think I’m gathering is a relatively unfavorable MDR and a trough over the east central US. Seems pretty clear this could subdue a textbook Cape Verde season, but I am uneasy about the potential implications this has for homegrown development. This is speculation, but I really do think we will be biting our nails in the second half of September and most of October if that pattern manifests and holds.

Correct, because where otherwise favorable conditions continue to exist enhanced TUTT impact on MDR development will have zero impact on potent low latitude TW's that'll continue to march westward. The impact that enhanced TUTT conditions will have will simply result in delayed genesis which continues to imply a lessor number of Central and Eastern Atlantic developing and recurving pole-ward early-on. That simply means a continuation of genesis further west where vertical shear lessens and an enhanced threat to the Antilles and points west.

[Steve]

We’re literally a week and a half away from the peak day, why aren’t we seeing anything!?

I actually liked it better when the models would spin up phantom storms and give us at least something to talk about.

The GFS is showing development in the EPac, while there are two active cherries in the Atlantic that should become Nana and Omar this week. Peak season activity is coming whether the models want it or not.

The clock is ticking!!

The clock already struck midnight on many repeated attempts by a few to throw water or any non-combustible liquid substance on the season despite ample and repeated evidence to the contrary. The clock ticked on eye-roll emoji's. Besides chiming in, I'm trying to understand what you were saying/adding/offering. If you're seriously suggesting the "clock is ticking" on the season based off the long range GFS - in 2020 no less - then I don't know why you or anyone else is bothering. So it can't be that. You've got to be being sarcastic there, right?