WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:20 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 312126

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)

B. 31/2100Z

C. 21.07N

D. 145.02E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0 DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:07 pm

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#43 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:12 pm

If the models are right, this could be like typhoon Vera, just further west
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#44 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:39 pm

0z ICON even deeper than last night's; last time I saw model runs this intense was for Hagibis

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Last edited by Highteeld on Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#45 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:45 pm

Here's a thread of some of my current thoughts regarding 11W. Most notably, guidance solutions indicate 11W could become a rather large TC, larger than even Maysak. It's possible that this may be causing the global guidance to overdo intensity, but it's hard to tell at the moment.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300639714278596608



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300639716816162817



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300639718372249600



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300639719458512897


Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#46 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:50 pm

Image

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#47 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:08 pm

Current presentation actually reminds me of when Joaquin '15 was first designated and when Malakas was following Meranti in 2016.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#48 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:09 pm

:uarrow: Will be traversing one of the hotspots. No wonder why the models are going bonkers with this.
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#49 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:09 pm

Another epic monster run.

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#50 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:20 pm

Swirls galore

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#51 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:27 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Another epic monster run.

https://i.imgur.com/bF45MWG.png

Reminding me more and more of Hagibis
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#52 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:32 pm

While still badly sheared, ASCAT shows that the true center is a little closer to the convection than the castaway vort makes it seem.

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#53 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:05 am

When was the last time CMC went sub 950s? I can't remember if it also did it with Hagibis.
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#54 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:29 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#55 Postby NotoSans » Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:32 am

 https://twitter.com/homosapieninhk/status/1300667719080009728


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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#56 Postby Highteeld » Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:03 am

898.4 was the lowest I saw the Euro go for Hagibis. I'll be really impressed if we see something like that again
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#57 Postby Highteeld » Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:18 am

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#58 Postby Highteeld » Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:25 am

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#59 Postby Highteeld » Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:27 am

Brutal

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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#60 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:00 am

Another SK landfall (after Japan), already Maysak could be a new record for SK but this one again :double:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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