2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[ClarCari]

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauwx/status/1300799688099147780

An already extremely warm MDR cooling by a few degrees is gonna make hardly a difference and SAL comes and goes

It’s not that these observations shouldn’t be made, they are very educated observations, but (and not necessarily this tweet in particular) again it’s educated wishful thinking and starting to become dangerous that some people are going to run with these observations and automatically think (hope) storms are gonna “struggle”. It will very likely be far from the case i’m afraid.

[SFLcane]

Classic...

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauwx/status/1300799688099147780

Who even is this? You also cherry picked one of his two recent tweets.

 https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1300800470462730245




I think we need to back off the tweets and increase the discussion.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauwx/status/1300799688099147780

Who even is this? You also cherry picked one of his two recent tweets.

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1300800470462730245?s=20

I think we need to back off the tweets and increase the discussion.

I'm going to have him for lunch, lol.

Edit: I actually was very respectful to him and told him to be careful when looking at the daily CDAS daily anomalies over the MDR when dust is present, it tend to be cool biased until the dust is out of the way.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1300868443823108097

[toad strangler]

I really wish there was a general yearly thread to dump cool tidbits like this into as it really doesn't belong in Indicators.

 http://twitter.com/splillo/status/1300907329035010048

[BYG Jacob]

I really wish there was a general yearly thread to dump cool tidbits like this into as it really doesn't belong in Indicators.

http://twitter.com/splillo/status/1300907329035010048?s=20

As a counterpoint, most of our formations were in May, June, and July. That's not when the Atlantic gets ACE cranking storms.

[toad strangler]

I really wish there was a general yearly thread to dump cool tidbits like this into as it really doesn't belong in Indicators.

http://twitter.com/splillo/status/1300907329035010048?s=20

As a counterpoint, most of our formations were in May, June, and July. That's not when the Atlantic gets ACE cranking storms.

Regardless, it's a fact that sticks out like a sore thumb.

[BYG Jacob]

I really wish there was a general yearly thread to dump cool tidbits like this into as it really doesn't belong in Indicators.

http://twitter.com/splillo/status/1300907329035010048?s=20

As a counterpoint, most of our formations were in May, June, and July. That's not when the Atlantic gets ACE cranking storms.

Regardless, it's a fact that sticks out like a sore thumb.

Climo man

[toad strangler]

As a counterpoint, most of our formations were in May, June, and July. That's not when the Atlantic gets ACE cranking storms.

Regardless, it's a fact that sticks out like a sore thumb.

Climo man

Agree it's climo to see weak sauce pre August, but it's yet to be determined as to what this many named storms signify. You would think we should see some whoppers in the next 7-8 weeks. We already have Laura so still ahead of sked a wee bit on the strength.

[Hammy]

Regardless, it's a fact that sticks out like a sore thumb.

Climo man

Agree it's climo to see weak sauce pre August, but it's yet to be determined as to what this many named storms signify. You would think we should see some whoppers in the next 7-8 weeks. We already have Laura so still ahead of sked a wee bit on the strength.

We've had a ton of 'wouldn't normally develop' type of systems that did so because the background state is more favorable, as well as systems that would've likely been missed in the pre-satellite era (which inflates the ACE per storm average in years such as 1961 for example)--similar to how a lot of things in 2013 that basic meteorological logic would say should develop, didn't.

Given the number of hurricanes is still above normal at the moment, a normal background state would've more than likely seen storms like Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Kyle, Omar, and possibly Marco not develop--which would've put us currently at 7/3/1 without whatever's giving this year a boost--above normal, but a more 'typical' above normal--and naturally the average ACE per storm would be higher.

[toad strangler]

Climo man

Agree it's climo to see weak sauce pre August, but it's yet to be determined as to what this many named storms signify. You would think we should see some whoppers in the next 7-8 weeks. We already have Laura so still ahead of sked a wee bit on the strength.

We've had a ton of 'wouldn't normally develop' type of systems that did so because the background state is more favorable, as well as systems that would've likely been missed in the pre-satellite era (which inflates the ACE per storm average in years such as 1961 for example)--similar to how a lot of things in 2013 that basic meteorological logic would say should develop, didn't.

Given the number of hurricanes is still above normal at the moment, a normal background state would've more than likely seen storms like Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Kyle, Omar, and possibly Marco not develop--which would've put us currently at 7/3/1 without whatever's giving this year a boost--above normal, but a more 'typical' above normal--and naturally the average ACE per storm would be higher.

Not a fan of the pre satellite era mention. Mostly we are comparing to 2005 here.

[Hammy]

Agree it's climo to see weak sauce pre August, but it's yet to be determined as to what this many named storms signify. You would think we should see some whoppers in the next 7-8 weeks. We already have Laura so still ahead of sked a wee bit on the strength.

We've had a ton of 'wouldn't normally develop' type of systems that did so because the background state is more favorable, as well as systems that would've likely been missed in the pre-satellite era (which inflates the ACE per storm average in years such as 1961 for example)--similar to how a lot of things in 2013 that basic meteorological logic would say should develop, didn't.

Given the number of hurricanes is still above normal at the moment, a normal background state would've more than likely seen storms like Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Kyle, Omar, and possibly Marco not develop--which would've put us currently at 7/3/1 without whatever's giving this year a boost--above normal, but a more 'typical' above normal--and naturally the average ACE per storm would be higher.

Not a fan of the pre satellite era mention. Mostly we are comparing to 2005 here.

2005 was mentioned nowhere in the discussion.

[toad strangler]

We've had a ton of 'wouldn't normally develop' type of systems that did so because the background state is more favorable, as well as systems that would've likely been missed in the pre-satellite era (which inflates the ACE per storm average in years such as 1961 for example)--similar to how a lot of things in 2013 that basic meteorological logic would say should develop, didn't.

Given the number of hurricanes is still above normal at the moment, a normal background state would've more than likely seen storms like Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Kyle, Omar, and possibly Marco not develop--which would've put us currently at 7/3/1 without whatever's giving this year a boost--above normal, but a more 'typical' above normal--and naturally the average ACE per storm would be higher.

Not a fan of the pre satellite era mention. Mostly we are comparing to 2005 here.

2005 was mentioned nowhere in the discussion.

It's the white elephant in the room and you know it is.

[aspen]

2020 is destined to reach the Greeks within a month at this rate. If at least one Greek named storm becomes worthy of retirement, could the NHC reconsider the idea of using non-retireable names like this?

[RL3AO]

2020 is destined to reach the Greeks within a month at this rate. If at least one Greek named storm becomes worthy of retirement, could the NHC reconsider the idea of using non-retireable names like this?

Remember that Wilma should have been Alpha in 2005, but they missed a storm until post season.

[Hammy]

Not a fan of the pre satellite era mention. Mostly we are comparing to 2005 here.

2005 was mentioned nowhere in the discussion.

It's the white elephant in the room and you know it is.

This year isn't 2005 and the conditions and type of storms are realistically going to be different. 2005 saw no non-tropical origin storms before September 6 compared to this year seeing as we've had 8 of the 15 storms having tropical origin.

There is an unknown favorable contributing to more storms spinning up that we'd normally see (essentially an inverse of 2013, and I'm sure we'll find out what that favorable item is after the season) but this is not an "every single feature is favorable and massive intense storms everywhere are inevitable" season like 2005.

When all is said and done, 2020 will more than likely end as a more active version of 2011, which similarly featured a lot of shorter-lived weaker storms that you'd normally expect not to form--but with a lot more storms and hurricanes.

The primary features where the two are similar are that the season is very west-based with the Gulf seemingly being the most favorable spot (which is bad) and that we'll run out of names.

[MississippiWx]

I cannot recall a time in recent memory when the MDR was so consistently filled with pure westerlies. It has been this way for a while. I saw a tweet on either this thread or the models thread where someone said the MDR anomalies have cooled. Well, it's not because of unfavorable conditions. I believe it has to do with so much cloudiness/storminess because of the very active monsoon trough. Dust outbreaks have been a little above normal as well. With the pure westerlies expected to continue for the foreseeable future, I imagine SST anomalies will make a recovery later this month. If they don't, I'm not sure it matters due to the convergence in the MDR. Also, we've seen the negative effects of storms that wait until the last minute to develop further west.

[Steve]

Agreed with that Toad. Not a fan of it either. Maybe we missed one or two systems a year - at most - back then anyway? Whatever the adjustment is, I don’t think it’s consequential. Anyone with actual data or reanalysis estimates is certainly welcome to educate me on that assumption if I’m wrong.

What we do have is two more named storms in the western basin. Omar formed west of 70W, and Nana will landfall in Belize on a south of west heading at about 87W or so. That’s like 11 or 12 out of 15 past 70W if I’m not mistaken and like 8 or so west of 80W. That’s borderline incredible in my opinion.

[NDG]

2005 was mentioned nowhere in the discussion.

It's the white elephant in the room and you know it is.

This year isn't 2005 and the conditions and type of storms are realistically going to be different. 2005 saw no non-tropical origin storms before September 6 compared to this year seeing as we've had 8 of the 15 storms having tropical origin.

There is an unknown favorable contributing to more storms spinning up that we'd normally see (essentially an inverse of 2013, and I'm sure we'll find out what that favorable item is after the season) but this is not an "every single feature is favorable and massive intense storms everywhere are inevitable" season like 2005.

When all is said and done, 2020 will more than likely end as a more active version of 2011, which similarly featured a lot of shorter-lived weaker storms that you'd normally expect not to form--but with a lot more storms and hurricanes.

The primary features where the two are similar are that the season is very west-based with the Gulf seemingly being the most favorable spot (which is bad) and that we'll run out of names.

I would include the Caribbean as being a favorable spot as well, when the Caribbean has been favorable the GOM has not, example was with Marco. Laura got lucky that conditions improved when it got to the GOM.