Tropical Wave off the African Coast (Is Invest 92L)

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro 48 to 240 hour loop. Does look a bit like Irma as far as the SW dip:

That deep trough from yesterday's run completely breaks down and instead a huge ridge for the Southeast. Much more believable.

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[SFLcane]

Tons of shear FYI...

[chaser1]

Tons of shear FYI...


https://i.imgur.com/0e7Bu0c.jpg

Perhaps, however I'd happily wager that this specific tropical system will not be within 100 miles of that exact spot in 234 hours. Shear might be less an issue then that 234 hr forecast suggests.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa on
Wednesday and merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so.
Gradual development of this system is then possible, and this system
could become a tropical depression by this weekend while it moves
slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[LarryWx]

This is what MAY threaten some portion of the CONUS/Bahamas around midmonth per the 12Z EPS if the WAR is too strong/extends too far west in ~7-10 days thus not allowing for a safe recurve. In recent years, the WAR/SER have been quite strong thanks largely to very warm Indonesian waters per a Maxar pro met. Combine that with +AMO and La Nina, and there's a risk that the WAR will be strong during the crucial 7-10 day period, which may keep it from recurving safely.

Regardless, Bermuda probably needs to watch this.

[gatorcane]

Wave is about to make the plunge. Saved loop:

[emeraldislenc]

Is that another wave behind it?

[toad strangler]

Wave is about to make the plunge. Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/ht3kgrr6/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

Looks like a traffic jam to me.

[LarryWx]

Wave is about to make the plunge. Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/ht3kgrr6/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

Looks like a traffic jam to me.

Which makes it fascinating to me. And then it will merge. How often does a wx hobbyist see something like this? Unique things like this are what interests me the most about wx.

[USTropics]

These waves definitely aren't practicing social distancing. Almost uninterrupted wave train/disturbances from east Africa to GOM:

[SFLcane]

This is what MAY threaten some portion of the CONUS/Bahamas around midmonth per the 12Z EPS if the WAR is too strong/extends too far west in ~7-10 days thus not allowing for a safe recurve. In recent years, the WAR/SER have been quite strong thanks largely to very warm Indonesian waters per a Maxar pro met. Combine that with +AMO and La Nina, and there's a risk that the WAR will be strong during the crucial 7-10 day period, which may keep it from recurving safely.

Regardless, Bermuda probably needs to watch this.

18z EPS was further south then its 12z run. But it’s after this point after dealing with the pv interaction that matters.

[LarryWx]

These waves definitely aren't practicing social distancing. Almost uninterrupted wave train/disturbances from east Africa to GOM:
https://i.imgur.com/irLhleP.png

It looks like a pretty far to the north ITCZ.

[ClarCari]

I’m not sure how to upload images on here on IPhone but this wave’s “Field” of Uncertainty from the 2AM outlook shows the possibility of an Irma...ughhh I MeanUghhh...Southwest dip

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

Adrian, that is Irma type track with that dip to WSW.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Adrian, that is Irma type track with that dip to WSW.

Totally different pattern with Irma. For now it seems there will not be enough ridging in place for this to impact the conus but this will continue to change. If I was in Bermuda I’d watch this one

[DestinHurricane]

:uarrow: Adrian, that is Irma type track with that dip to WSW.

Totally different pattern with Irma. For now it seems there will not be enough ridging in place for this to impact the conus but this will continue to change. If I was in Bermuda I’d watch this one

For a while Irma looked like a fish. I would say it's too early to say if it's going to recurve or not, especially considering that models have underdone ridging all year.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Adrian, that is Irma type track with that dip to WSW.

Totally different pattern with Irma. For now it seems there will not be enough ridging in place for this to impact the conus but this will continue to change. If I was in Bermuda I’d watch this one

For a while Irma looked like a fish. I would say it's too early to say if it's going to recurve or not, especially considering that models have underdone ridging all year.

Potentially... pure speculation at this point.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1301150831132258306

[SFLcane]

Well this is interesting...

[SouthFLTropics]

Well this is interesting...

https://i.postimg.cc/Znr64gBq/89893-E03-364-B-4104-AA44-858-E4-B62928.gif

You know what that means. It means we are safe and sound.