ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[us89]

Pressure up 2 mb, no change in wind with this advisory. NHC still believes it’ll strengthen before landfall, and a hurricane warning is now up from Belize City to Guatemala.

[abajan]

Pressure up 2 mb, no change in wind with this advisory. NHC still believes it’ll strengthen before landfall, and a hurricane warning is now up from Belize City to Guatemala.

While it may not become a hurricane, it was wise for the Belize government to go with a hurricane warning since there wouldn't be enough time to prepare were the outlook to change.

[Laminar]

We are under hurricane warning from Belize City south to Guatemalan border, and watch to the north of the City.

[aspen]

Looking better than it was this morning, although that mass of convection is not perfectly centered over the CoC. Maybe recon will find Nana a little stronger.

[wxman57]

Convection increased the past 2-3 hours, but the center may be near the northern edge of the convection due to increasing shear. In fact, the northern edge of that convection is at the current latitude of the center as located by recon.

[cheezyWXguy]

Center is exposed now

[aspen]

Looking better than it was this morning, although that mass of convection is not perfectly centered over the CoC. Maybe recon will find Nana a little stronger.
https://i.imgur.com/J74hPnI.jpg

They did not find Nana a little stronger. It looks to be a little weaker.

[wxman57]

Center marked by red crosshairs. Northerly wind shear due to the upper-level low to Nana's northeast is causing increasing shear. Small storms can't tolerate such shear. GFS is still predicting wind shear to increase up to landfall. I don't think Nana will be any stronger than it is now. Could be a lot weaker at landfall. Very tiny area of strong winds, too.

[TheStormExpert]

Well Nana certainly doesn't look like it's going to become a hurricane!

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1301206958545022978

[MississippiWx]

Nana is exposing herself to all of us.

[GCANE]

VDM: 999mb

Nana has been tracking into a Theta-E trof all morning, thus accounting for the lack of intensification.
Its at the bottom of the trof now.
Looks like it will track into increasing Theta-E until landfall.
At least this factor may contribute to possible intensification.
Shear may counter that though.
Need to see how it plays out.

[TheStormExpert]

Nana is exposing herself to all of us.

Well that’s embarrassing!

[abajan]

Well Nana certainly doesn't look like it's going to become a hurricane!

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1301206958545022978

He's calling Nana "Laura".

[wx98]

Still at 60 mph:

...NANA CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 2
Location: 17.0°N 85.9°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[wxman57]

I doubt Nana's winds are really even close to 60 mph. Recon barely had a FL wind to 60 mph in an area with zero convection. That means those winds would not easily make it to the surface. Since almost all Nana's TS winds were north of the track, and now there's no convection north of the track, winds may be closer to 45 mph, if that. I know that the NHC doesn't want residents of Belize to relax and ignore the storm, which is good for the general public. Shear looks like it will be increasing up to landfall. Most likely a swirl of low clouds making landfall, like Marco in SE LA.

[gatorcane]

Approaching peak of the season and even in the Western Caribbean, conditions just are not too favorable. Even the invest that became Marco struggled there surprisingly. The models did miss genesis on this one but let’s face it, this is a micro storm which is clearly struggling. The models don’t generally do well with tiny storms.

[wx98]

Approaching peak of the season and even in the Western Caribbean, conditions just are not too favorable. Even the invest that became Marco struggled there surprisingly. The models did miss genesis on this one but let’s face it, this is a micro storm which is clearly struggling. The models don’t generally do well with tiny storms.

We’ve definitely had storm quantity over quality this year. Still, September and October could bring a surprise or two.

[aspen]

Recon confirms that Nana’s LLC is back under convection. However, the vortex is slightly tilted, as evident by the wind and pressure gradients not being aligned.

[aspen]

996 mbar, ~50 kt FL, and ~55 kt SFMR from this pass, with the LLC further under the shield of convection. It does seem like Nana is slightly strengthening in her final 12-18 hours. Let’s see if recon finds higher FL winds in the NE quadrant.

[Nimbus]

Perhaps not quite as much shear close to landfall with the possibility of Nana reaching hurricane status in the next 12 hours. Glad she is running out of water.