2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[ClarCari]

https://youtu.be/12wPXH7FDFk

A MUST see video for those to look at for any season but especially hyperactive forecast seasons like this year.
Look at the lowww ACE value Sep 1 and then again at Sep 30..
And October this year has every reason to be just as active as September!

[aspen]

The discussions over the last few days show we’ve been spoiled by having an active hurricane in the first days of September since 2016 — Hermine ‘16, Irma ‘17, Florence ‘18, and Dorian ‘19. This is the first time August 31st-September 4th will be devoid of a hurricane (assuming Nana remains a TS) in half a decade, and the first since 2016 with no long-tracker, and now we’re back to doubting 2020’s potential. Yes, it’s slightly odd that we haven’t had a long-tracker so far given the favorable outlooks for the season, but we just had 130 kt Laura in the Gulf, and it would’ve been a long-tracking hurricane if it went further north or further south. That, and even the worst models this year are showing MDR development within 5 days.

The long-tracking high-ACE hurricanes are coming. With any luck, we’ll see a couple of nice fish majors that don’t really bother anybody within the next few weeks to help boost 2020’s total ACE. But since it’s 2020, aka the year in which every possible terrible thing can and will happen, I find it unlikely we’ll be off the hook for the rest of the season.

[Shell Mound]

You're right on that. And I'm not sure why this year and certainly Toad's "white elephant" year of 2005 had so many systems form outside of the MDR. Hammy noted that there are major differences in "source" for storms between the two years. But she also discussed a couple similarities. Another one that stands out to me is the anomalously warmer water across almost the entire Atlantic basin. We had that in 2005 which I think set the overall + record since they've been measuring. I don't have the 2005 map from 8/31 to contrast, but I remember almost the entire ocean was yellow or orange for much of that season.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

For comparisons, here is the observed SSTA graph for 2020 (August 31st) that Steve posted and the past 6 hyperactive seasons on the same date:

2020
https://i.imgur.com/YMEAXl0.gif

2017
https://i.imgur.com/4aCaS1B.gif

2010
https://i.imgur.com/BaVHFty.gif

2005
https://i.imgur.com/iid8S88.gif

2004
https://i.imgur.com/OgKHgo7.gif

2003
https://i.imgur.com/XGN1AJU.gif

1999
https://i.imgur.com/BXRT8sK.gif

Note that the SSTA difference between the subtropical North Atlantic and the MDR/Caribbean is currently higher in 2020 than in any of those seasons. That could account for the relative dearth of robust activity in the deep tropics thus far, and also is definitely linked to the occasional strong TUTTs/AWB events we have been observing, given that the net sinking and convergence will tend to be over the deep tropics vs. the subtropics, despite a solid -PDO/Niña setup in the Pacific with a near-neutral IOD. Overall, the SSTA configuration in the Atlantic, with basin-wide warmth being weighted toward the subtropics, is probably the only real mitigating factor against much higher ACE at this point in time. All other factors are generating a prolific number of storms, however weak and/or short-lived most of them may be. We may only see one or two long-tracking CV systems with high ACE this year, but one of those could be an Andrew-type system that temporarily weakens near the Antillean TUTT, then re-intensifies as it heads closer to the Bahamas/CONUS. I think this year is one to watch in terms of multiple Cat-4+ U.S. landfalls intensifying fairly close to land, with a third possible occurrence later in October in association with homegrown Caribbean development, given trends toward La Niña as we head into the meteorological autumn.

[TheStormExpert]

The discussions over the last few days show we’ve been spoiled by having an active hurricane in the first days of September since 2016 — Hermine ‘16, Irma ‘17, Florence ‘18, and Dorian ‘19. This is the first time August 31st-September 4th will be devoid of a hurricane (assuming Nana remains a TS) in half a decade, and the first since 2016 with no long-tracker, and now we’re back to doubting 2020’s potential. Yes, it’s slightly odd that we haven’t had a long-tracker so far given the favorable outlooks for the season, but we just had 130 kt Laura in the Gulf, and it would’ve been a long-tracking hurricane if it went further north or further south. That, and even the worst models this year are showing MDR development within 5 days.

The long-tracking high-ACE hurricanes are coming. With any luck, we’ll see a couple of nice fish majors that don’t really bother anybody within the next few weeks to help boost 2020’s total ACE. But since it’s 2020, aka the year in which every possible terrible thing can and will happen, I find it unlikely we’ll be off the hook for the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t say spoiled. Rather than it’s more common to see a hurricane during the beginning of September than not, considering peak day is eight days away.

[MarioProtVI]

The discussions over the last few days show we’ve been spoiled by having an active hurricane in the first days of September since 2016 — Hermine ‘16, Irma ‘17, Florence ‘18, and Dorian ‘19. This is the first time August 31st-September 4th will be devoid of a hurricane (assuming Nana remains a TS) in half a decade, and the first since 2016 with no long-tracker, and now we’re back to doubting 2020’s potential. Yes, it’s slightly odd that we haven’t had a long-tracker so far given the favorable outlooks for the season, but we just had 130 kt Laura in the Gulf, and it would’ve been a long-tracking hurricane if it went further north or further south. That, and even the worst models this year are showing MDR development within 5 days.

The long-tracking high-ACE hurricanes are coming. With any luck, we’ll see a couple of nice fish majors that don’t really bother anybody within the next few weeks to help boost 2020’s total ACE. But since it’s 2020, aka the year in which every possible terrible thing can and will happen, I find it unlikely we’ll be off the hook for the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t say spoiled. Rather than it’s more common to see a hurricane during the beginning of September than not, considering peak day is eight days away.

This became void just minutes ago

[aspen]

The discussions over the last few days show we’ve been spoiled by having an active hurricane in the first days of September since 2016 — Hermine ‘16, Irma ‘17, Florence ‘18, and Dorian ‘19. This is the first time August 31st-September 4th will be devoid of a hurricane (assuming Nana remains a TS) in half a decade, and the first since 2016 with no long-tracker, and now we’re back to doubting 2020’s potential. Yes, it’s slightly odd that we haven’t had a long-tracker so far given the favorable outlooks for the season, but we just had 130 kt Laura in the Gulf, and it would’ve been a long-tracking hurricane if it went further north or further south. That, and even the worst models this year are showing MDR development within 5 days.

The long-tracking high-ACE hurricanes are coming. With any luck, we’ll see a couple of nice fish majors that don’t really bother anybody within the next few weeks to help boost 2020’s total ACE. But since it’s 2020, aka the year in which every possible terrible thing can and will happen, I find it unlikely we’ll be off the hook for the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t say spoiled. Rather than it’s more common to see a hurricane during the beginning of September than not, considering peak day is eight days away.

This became void just minutes ago

Curse you Nana!

Well...there’s our early September AEW-based hurricane.

[AnnularCane]

The discussions over the last few days show we’ve been spoiled by having an active hurricane in the first days of September since 2016 — Hermine ‘16, Irma ‘17, Florence ‘18, and Dorian ‘19. This is the first time August 31st-September 4th will be devoid of a hurricane (assuming Nana remains a TS) in half a decade, and the first since 2016 with no long-tracker, and now we’re back to doubting 2020’s potential. Yes, it’s slightly odd that we haven’t had a long-tracker so far given the favorable outlooks for the season, but we just had 130 kt Laura in the Gulf, and it would’ve been a long-tracking hurricane if it went further north or further south. That, and even the worst models this year are showing MDR development within 5 days.

The long-tracking high-ACE hurricanes are coming. With any luck, we’ll see a couple of nice fish majors that don’t really bother anybody within the next few weeks to help boost 2020’s total ACE. But since it’s 2020, aka the year in which every possible terrible thing can and will happen, I find it unlikely we’ll be off the hook for the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t say spoiled. Rather than it’s more common to see a hurricane during the beginning of September than not, considering peak day is eight days away.

This became void just minutes ago

Well, you did say "assuming Nana remains a TS." Which she didn't.

[TheStormExpert]

The discussions over the last few days show we’ve been spoiled by having an active hurricane in the first days of September since 2016 — Hermine ‘16, Irma ‘17, Florence ‘18, and Dorian ‘19. This is the first time August 31st-September 4th will be devoid of a hurricane (assuming Nana remains a TS) in half a decade, and the first since 2016 with no long-tracker, and now we’re back to doubting 2020’s potential. Yes, it’s slightly odd that we haven’t had a long-tracker so far given the favorable outlooks for the season, but we just had 130 kt Laura in the Gulf, and it would’ve been a long-tracking hurricane if it went further north or further south. That, and even the worst models this year are showing MDR development within 5 days.

The long-tracking high-ACE hurricanes are coming. With any luck, we’ll see a couple of nice fish majors that don’t really bother anybody within the next few weeks to help boost 2020’s total ACE. But since it’s 2020, aka the year in which every possible terrible thing can and will happen, I find it unlikely we’ll be off the hook for the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t say spoiled. Rather than it’s more common to see a hurricane during the beginning of September than not, considering peak day is eight days away.

This became void just minutes ago

Yeah I spoke too soon, 2020 heard me and fixed that!

[galaxy401]

Here comes another:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to
form from the wave, and some development of this low will be
possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

Euro continues to show an exponential ACE burst coming for the Atlantic ocean.

[aspen]

We now have a full fruit basket in the eastern MDR — Invest 91L the orange, soon-to-be 92L the cherry, and a new lemon. It’s very possible we could see Paulette, Rene, and Sally from these waves in the next 7-10 days. Welcome to September!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

We now have a full fruit basket in the eastern MDR — Invest 91L the orange, soon-to-be 92L the cherry, and a new lemon. It’s very possible we could see Paulette, Rene, and Sally from these waves in the next 7-10 days. Welcome to September!

Gonna get a big ACE boost soon, methinks...

[toad strangler]

We now have a full fruit basket in the eastern MDR — Invest 91L the orange, soon-to-be 92L the cherry, and a new lemon. It’s very possible we could see Paulette, Rene, and Sally from these waves in the next 7-10 days. Welcome to September!

Gonna get a big ACE boost soon, methinks...

The ACE hand wringers of recent are all about to share the same fate as the early season SST hand wringers and the season long SAL hand wringers. #FAIL

[AnnularCane]

We now have a full fruit basket in the eastern MDR — Invest 91L the orange, soon-to-be 92L the cherry, and a new lemon. It’s very possible we could see Paulette, Rene, and Sally from these waves in the next 7-10 days. Welcome to September!

Looks like some kind of bottleneck going on in the Atlantic. I feel like I don't know what's going to do what anymore.

[CyclonicFury]

It appears likely that the long-awaited burst of MDR activity should begin very soon. It is still unclear how strong these potential storms get, but it is likely we get at least one (perhaps even two or three) long-tracked hurricanes from this burst.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yes, by late next week, we should be tracking a couple of storms. However, the next several days may be a rare quiet lull in our very active season. Assuming Omar finally dissipates, I think it's possible we'll have no active systems for Labor Day this year since it may take a few days for the multiple systems in the far eastern Atlantic to sort themselves out and consolidate. I think our next classified TC develops next Tuesday, IMO

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1301545736392368128

[USTropics]

ACE is just one metric to tell how "busy" a season is. While we haven't had a traditional MDR season (yet) to really prop up the ACE, this doesn't take into account impacts. Hannah/Laura are great examples, they didn't intensify right until landfall, which means ACE will be low for these storms. This doesn't account for the fact they caused extensive damage - we're over $14 billion in damage with "just" 44 ACE for 2020. To put that into perspective, this is already more damage then the total values of some hyperactive seasons (2010, 2003, 1999).

2020 Damage Estimates
Tropical Storm Fay - $0.5 billion
Hurricane Isaias - $4.20 billion
Hurricane Hannah - $0.5 billion
Hurricane Laura - $8.9 billion
Total - $14.1 billion

2010
$7.4 billion in 2010 (adjusted to $8.7 billion in 2020)

2003
$6.3 billion in 2003 (adjusted to $8.8 billion in 2020)

1999
$8.4 billion in 1999 (adjusted to $13.5 billion in 2020)

[psyclone]

Not surprisingly there's some fidgeting out there right now which not unreasonable considering we're a week from the top of the mountain absent a biggie on the map. each day like that at this time of year is at least a 3 pointer for club slow (er) season. They might end up correct. But the NHC 5 day has that "bag of skittles" look...I wouldn't trust those long term model runs...no matter what they say. they have been most unimpressive this year. the big trough expected in the middle of the country should also provide no comfort...way too soon for that. in fact our local wfo discussion mentioned a stalled front in the gulf as a potential catalyst for trouble. of course they are correct. beyond that...such a pattern could draw a storm northward out of the northwest caribbean...something to watch for. In the meantime...enjoy the break. Climo and the indicators strongly favor that being brief.

[TheStormExpert]

Not surprisingly there's some fidgeting out there right now which not unreasonable considering we're a week from the top of the mountain absent a biggie on the map. each day like that at this time of year is at least a 3 pointer for club slow (er) season. They might end up correct. But the NHC 5 day has that "bag of skittles" look...I wouldn't trust those long term model runs...no matter what they say. they have been most unimpressive this year. the big trough expected in the middle of the country should also provide no comfort...way too soon for that. in fact our local wfo discussion mentioned a stalled front in the gulf as a potential catalyst for trouble. of course they are correct. beyond that...such a pattern could draw a storm northward out of the northwest caribbean...something to watch for. In the meantime...enjoy the break. Climo and the indicators strongly favor that being brief.

I’m definitely not saying a recurve or fish storm(s) is a definite solution but one thing that seems noticeable when looking at the recent runs of the GFS, GFS-Parallel, and Euro is the 500mb pattern is very progressive with whatever ridging that does develop being short-lived. The two typhoons in the West Pacific are you thank for this I would assume.