2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ClarCari]

It’s not just how cool the GFS gets but looks how long the GFS keeps the cooler anomalies around for, nearly a week! SSTs would take a serious hit if this happens:

Speaking of the GFS, it insists some chilly air for early-mid September will penetrate all the way down into the northern Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hsv2vZzc/gfs-T2ma-eus-32.png

If the GFS model is right and we do see that big of a chill into the northern Gulf of Mexico, I will donate $50 to Storm2K.

Yeah let's see what happens. GFS predicts low of 48 in New Orleans on Sep 10. Record low for date is 62.

All the more reason to believe this WON’T happen. At least not anywhere near close to the GFS predictions

A week of a nice chill break and some scattered storms would be a little nice tho!

[toad strangler]

Watching the Euro and GFS the past week has me a little concerned that the end game for points west end like this ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JPL-rEuc9o

[eastcoastFL]

18z GFS-Para

[eastcoastFL]

18z GEFS

[NDG]

The area to watch will be the GOM next week if the 12z Euro/EPS and 12z CMC/GEPS are correct. Even some of the GEFS-Para members show possible development by the middle to late next week. If the GFS proves to be correct, then forget about it.

[NDG]

0z Icon is also liking the idea of possible development in the NW Caribbean-Eastern GOM next week.

[NDG]

GFS little by little is trending towards the Euro, but still big differences.
0z Icon is very similar to the Euro.

[sma10]

GFS little by little is trending towards the Euro, but still big differences.
0z Icon is very similar to the Euro.

CMC also trending big to the west, and UK as well. Still tons of uncertainty in long range, in terms of eventual turning

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models have also been strongly hinting at something spinning up in the BoC at the tail end of that cold front that brings temperatures in the 50s all the way to the Gulf Coast.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro continues to lighten it up.

[hurricaneCW]

00z Euro continues to lighten it up.
https://i.imgur.com/BdTEv8I.png

Big yikes there. GFS has a strong hurricane there that recurves near Bermuda but the GFS is likely underdoing the ridging.

Under the Euro setup both systems could head west and impact the US east coast.

[NDG]

Like I said before going to bed last night that the GFS was little by little trending towards the Euro, nobody who bet against the GFS is loosing their house.

[Ivanhater]

Like I said before going to bed last night that the GFS was little by little trending towards the Euro, nobody who bet against the GFS is loosing their house.

https://i.imgur.com/OmkIXon.gif

Great post. Anyone who thought record low 40s were coming to the Gulf coast in early September were wishful thinking.

[SFLcane]

Like I said before going to bed last night that the GFS was little by little trending towards the Euro, nobody who bet against the GFS is loosing their house.

https://i.imgur.com/OmkIXon.gif

Still no sign of a TC getting under that ridge though.

[SFLcane]

Should finally get us some ACE at least.

[otowntiger]

Speaking of the GFS, it insists some chilly air for early-mid September will penetrate all the way down into the northern Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hsv2vZzc/gfs-T2ma-eus-32.png

If the GFS model is right and we do see that big of a chill into the northern Gulf of Mexico, I will donate $50 to Storm2K.

Yeah let's see what happens. GFS predicts low of 48 in New Orleans on Sep 10. Record low for date is 62.

It’s clear the GFS is overdoing this cold front, just a bit. Would be nice, but there is no way that NOLA breaks an overnight record low by 14, degrees. Lol!

[chaser1]

Watching the Euro and GFS the past week has me a little concerned that the end game for points west end like this ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JPL-rEuc9o

Loved that lol. I'm gonna call this my cinematic interpretation Based on that short clip, a probable WNW approach to Florida with a sudden WSW dive toward a Ft. Lauderdale landfall (but potentially land-falling a bit north around Vero)

[NDG]

Like I said before going to bed last night that the GFS was little by little trending towards the Euro, nobody who bet against the GFS is loosing their house.

https://i.imgur.com/OmkIXon.gif

Still no sign of a TC getting under that ridge though.

I would still still watch for possible development in the NW Caribbean/eastern GOM next week, some EPS and GEPS show some weak development possible in this area.

[northjaxpro]

Like I said before going to bed last night that the GFS was little by little trending towards the Euro, nobody who bet against the GFS is loosing their house.

https://i.imgur.com/OmkIXon.gif

With a strong + NAO currently ongoing, yeah no way we are seeing a trough of that magnitude coming our way anytime soon.

[SconnieCane]

00z Euro continues to lighten it up.
https://i.imgur.com/BdTEv8I.png

Looks like a little gap in the "double-barreled" ridge there, but probably not enough to turn that lead TC sharply to the NE.