2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SconnieCane]

Local NWSFO is going to have to significantly revise their temperature forecast for next week, which had been weighted towards the GFS.

[DestinHurricane]

00z Euro continues to lighten it up.
https://i.imgur.com/BdTEv8I.png

Looks like a little gap in the "double-barreled" ridge there, but probably not enough to turn that lead TC sharply to the NE.

So the likely solution on this run is that the TC would get trapped under the easterly moving ridge and continue west.

Of course it's way too far out to nail something like that out, but the system has a chance of threatening the conus.

[SFLcane]

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest gfs para is...interesting. Dual cat4s in the long range, 1 in the boc and one off the se coast

[SFLcane]

Ultimate fish marathon...

2010/1995-like pattern coming up it would seem.

[NDG]

Like I said before going to bed last night that the GFS was little by little trending towards the Euro, nobody who bet against the GFS is loosing their house.

https://i.imgur.com/OmkIXon.gif

With a strong + NAO currently ongoing, yeah no way we are seeing a trough of that magnitude coming our way anytime soon.

Plus the PNA is going down to at least to neutral next week.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ultimate fish marathon...

2010/1995-like pattern coming up it would seem.

https://i.imgur.com/YE0xjP2.png

Definitely gives me a 1995 vibe. Would be incredible for ACE.

[TheStormExpert]

Like I said before going to bed last night that the GFS was little by little trending towards the Euro, nobody who bet against the GFS is loosing their house.

https://i.imgur.com/OmkIXon.gif

With a strong + NAO currently ongoing, yeah no way we are seeing a trough of that magnitude coming our way anytime soon.

Plus the PNA is going down to at least to neutral next week.

GFS, and Euro/EPS show nothing but fish storms with potential impacts to Bermuda. I don’t see the ridge you’ll are talking about.

[NDG]

Definitely all models agree on long tracking ACE producing storms starting next week whether they go OTS or not.
I still say that any storm that does not find a weakness well east of Bermuda they could still be a threat to the US once it starts bumping into the ridging in the NW Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

Definitely all models agree on long tracking ACE producing storms starting next week whether they go OTS or not.
I still say that any storm that does not find a weakness well east of Bermuda they could still be a threat to the US once it starts bumping into the ridging in the NW Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/3e1BSCg.png

Just looks like the ridge is pretty far N. Looks like a lot of weakness to the NE too. Escape hatch will be open

Ridge would need to be reinforced a lot more

[NDG]

With a strong + NAO currently ongoing, yeah no way we are seeing a trough of that magnitude coming our way anytime soon.

Plus the PNA is going down to at least to neutral next week.

GFS, and Euro/EPS show nothing but fish storms with potential impacts to Bermuda. I don’t see the ridge you’ll are talking about.

Writing the tracks on stone from the GFS and Euro's long range forecast is not a good idea when ensembles show strong ridging north of Bermuda, like I said, any OTS tracks will have to be well east of Bermuda. There is no trough pattern being forecasted for the eastern US for them to recurve OTS over or west of Bermuda.

[toad strangler]

WPAC recurving typhoons influence could be a savior for terra firma in the Atlantic basin or a detriment. Timing, as usual, is everything and globals will struggle even more with these events.

 http://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1301507077530169350

[aspen]

00z Euro has Paulette, Rene, Sally, and Teddy in the MDR by September 13th. The 06z GFS-Para has Paulette and Rene within 5 days, both of which become major hurricanes down the line, then TS Sally in the MDR and major hurricane Teddy in the Gulf around mid-month. It’s looking ever more likely that this September is going to be insanely active.

If those model runs are even somewhat right, we could see anywhere from 5/3/1 to 6/4/3 for just the first half of September, including Nana and Omar.

[SFLcane]

Plus the PNA is going down to at least to neutral next week.

GFS, and Euro/EPS show nothing but fish storms with potential impacts to Bermuda. I don’t see the ridge you’ll are talking about.

Writing the tracks on stone from the GFS and Euro's long range forecast is not a good idea when ensembles show strong ridging north of Bermuda, like I said, any OTS tracks will have to be well east of Bermuda. There is no trough pattern being forecasted for the eastern US for them to recurve OTS over or west of Bermuda.


https://i.imgur.com/yMemFxM.gif

It's the trough under the ridge that's the thing. Notice that retrograding ULL That's what's gonna serve as the recurve mechanism at least for the first system or two.

Large weakness “ trap door “

[SFLcane]

I won't 100% write off a landfall possibility until we see the tracks with a formed system.

[ColdMiser123]

More uncertainty than normal with the CONUS pattern because of the typhoon tracks out west. Not all typhoons actually have a significant downstream effect on the pattern, but that is a wildcard if the outflow ends up impacting the jet stream. In addition, the exact evolution of the system itself, combined with the exact evolution of the mid-upper level trough to the north are also uncertain factors.

Significantly more EPS members compared to 12z are now west of Bermuda, at this point I would argue a track to the southeastern US coast appears to be just as likely as a track east of Bermuda. Too much uncertainty at this point for me to really be too confident about a track inland or offshore.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Per the 00z ECMWF, we'd reach Sally by September 8th, which is surreal. Would be over 3 weeks ahead of 2005.

We're going deep into the Greek alphabet this year.

[NDG]

Definitely all models agree on long tracking ACE producing storms starting next week whether they go OTS or not.
I still say that any storm that does not find a weakness well east of Bermuda they could still be a threat to the US once it starts bumping into the ridging in the NW Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/3e1BSCg.png

Just looks like the ridge is pretty far N. Looks like a lot of weakness to the NE too. Escape hatch will be open

Ridge would need to be reinforced a lot more

This is what a guaranteed OTS pattern looks like, 2010, as an example. Nothing close to what models are showing.

[SFLcane]

Definitely all models agree on long tracking ACE producing storms starting next week whether they go OTS or not.
I still say that any storm that does not find a weakness well east of Bermuda they could still be a threat to the US once it starts bumping into the ridging in the NW Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/3e1BSCg.png

Just looks like the ridge is pretty far N. Looks like a lot of weakness to the NE too. Escape hatch will be open

Ridge would need to be reinforced a lot more

This is what a guaranteed OTS pattern looks like, 2010, as an example. Nothing close to what models are showing.

https://i.imgur.com/wPY7U1a.gif

NDG, that is what the EPS basically has at Day 15. Not quite that pronounced we will see if that evolves.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just looks like the ridge is pretty far N. Looks like a lot of weakness to the NE too. Escape hatch will be open

Ridge would need to be reinforced a lot more

This is what a guaranteed OTS pattern looks like, 2010, as an example. Nothing close to what models are showing.

https://i.imgur.com/wPY7U1a.gif

NDG, that is what the EPS basically has at Day 15. Not quite that pronounced we will see if that evolves.

https://i.postimg.cc/jSRzTTzn/5-F4029-C8-7-BE1-48-FA-A96-F-4-D91-D0652-F98.jpg

Not exactly the same. A blocking high over the Atlantic would send storms westward, but the weakness over New England looks like something you'd see with East Coast landfall setups.