WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

The only near-term problem for Haishen is that Dmin could keep the cloud tops from getting exceptionally cold like Hagibis or Halong.

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

Both the eye temperature and the CDO warm as the DMIN approaches

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 888&y=1058

[aspen]

Assuming the eyewall stays solid like this without an outer one trying to form over the next 12-18 hours, Dmax could help cool the CDO and get this even stronger.

[aspen]

Now officially forecast to peak at 140 kt.

[aspen]

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

Subsidence really overcoming over the remaining debris from the inner eyewall

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... =930&y=997

[Highteeld]

[aspen]

Haishen will likely be a Category 5 by 00z at this rate.

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

Ahh

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

Date (mmddhhmm): 09031638
SATCON: MSLP = 926 hPa MSW = 134 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 130.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 124 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 205 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -0.3 knots Source: IR

[Hayabusa]

TPPN10 PGTW 032129

A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)

B. 03/2050Z

C. 21.44N

D. 135.66E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1640Z 21.13N 136.05E MMHS
03/1657Z 21.12N 135.98E AMS2


MARTIN

[ElectricStorm]

TPPN10 PGTW 032129

A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)

B. 03/2050Z

C. 21.44N

D. 135.66E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1640Z 21.13N 136.05E MMHS
03/1657Z 21.12N 135.98E AMS2


MARTIN

Whoa, cat 5 at 0z?

[aspen]

TPPN10 PGTW 032129

A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)

B. 03/2050Z

C. 21.44N

D. 135.66E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1640Z 21.13N 136.05E MMHS
03/1657Z 21.12N 135.98E AMS2


MARTIN

Whoa, cat 5 at 0z?

Thick W ring around an +18C eye that should be completely cleared out by 00z...yeah, T#7.0 for 00z looks good.

[TorSkk]

JMA still calling for a violent 915 mb peak but their current estimate is really low, only 950

TY 2010 (Haishen)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 3 September 2020

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 3 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N21°30' (21.5°)
E135°35' (135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 500 km (270 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

[aspen]

JMA still calling for a violent 915 mb peak but their current estimate is really low, only 950

TY 2010 (Haishen)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 3 September 2020

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 3 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N21°30' (21.5°)
E135°35' (135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 500 km (270 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

I really hate the JMA’s pressure estimates. They are imprecise (being rounded off to the nearest 5 mbar) and are always 5-30 mbar off from the best track estimates. Why not go with those?