2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[ClarCari]

Labor Day weekend 2020 has started and just no real threats to any land areas outside maybe the Cabo Verde islands with a wave to exit Africa this week. Looking at the loop just not much going on outside of some “fruit salad” in the far eastern Atlantic shaded by NHC. Plenty of dry air is still around, here in South Florida hazy skies were widespread today. Also the board feels a bit quiet lately considering the time of year it is which is another indicator no real threats to land that we can see. Let’s hope this good news continues.

https://i.postimg.cc/13DM1Nx6/ED200995-4-D74-4-D49-B4-CC-11667-FBFC275.gif

Well development was expected to be slow over the weekend until early next week anyways. Dry Air is fickle, and can disappear real quick, and the moisture of all the waves will def give them a nice pouch in the short term.

[Hammy]

An interesting note on the season so far, and another departure from last year--Omar's origins appear to be tropical and sourced back to a piece of energy Laura pulled up from the monsoon trough, all but one of this season's non-tropical origin storms (Kyle) were prior to mid-July. In 2019, between mid-July and mid-September we had nine storms and five were of non-tropical origin--over half.

[TheStormExpert]

Labor Day weekend 2020 has started and just no real threats to any land areas outside maybe the Cabo Verde islands with a wave to exit Africa this week. Looking at the loop just not much going on outside of some “fruit salad” in the far eastern Atlantic shaded by NHC. Plenty of dry air is still around, here in South Florida hazy skies were widespread today. Also the board feels a bit quiet lately considering the time of year it is which is another indicator no real threats to land that we can see. Let’s hope this good news continues.

https://i.postimg.cc/13DM1Nx6/ED200995-4-D74-4-D49-B4-CC-11667-FBFC275.gif

Yep. Very rarely do we not have any threats or at least hurricanes to track on Labor Day Weekend. I’m also not seeing that dangerous steering pattern everyone was talking about the past 2-4 weeks or so. 2020 continues to throw us some curveballs.

[Hammy]

Labor Day weekend 2020 has started and just no real threats to any land areas outside maybe the Cabo Verde islands with a wave to exit Africa this week. Looking at the loop just not much going on outside of some “fruit salad” in the far eastern Atlantic shaded by NHC. Plenty of dry air is still around, here in South Florida hazy skies were widespread today. Also the board feels a bit quiet lately considering the time of year it is which is another indicator no real threats to land that we can see. Let’s hope this good news continues.

https://i.postimg.cc/13DM1Nx6/ED200995-4-D74-4-D49-B4-CC-11667-FBFC275.gif

Yep. Very rarely do we not have any threats or at least hurricanes to track on Labor Day Weekend. I’m also not seeing that dangerous steering pattern everyone was talking about the past 2-4 weeks or so. 2020 continues to throw us some curveballs.

Something else this year has with 2000, something this year has had a similar feel to ever since the CFS had been showing that (relative) lull that happened during the early and middle portion of August that ended up playing out.

Interesting thing that year was between August 25 and September 10, Ernesto (at 35kt for 36h from Sep 2-3) was the only system named--followed by 7/5/2 between Sep 11 and Oct 5.

[toad strangler]

Labor Day weekend 2020 has started and just no real threats to any land areas outside maybe the Cabo Verde islands with a wave to exit Africa this week. Looking at the loop just not much going on outside of some “fruit salad” in the far eastern Atlantic shaded by NHC. Plenty of dry air is still around, here in South Florida hazy skies were widespread today. Also the board feels a bit quiet lately considering the time of year it is which is another indicator no real threats to land that we can see. Let’s hope this good news continues.

https://i.postimg.cc/13DM1Nx6/ED200995-4-D74-4-D49-B4-CC-11667-FBFC275.gif

You have been like a pezz dispenser this year when it comes to dry air and or SAL. Neither of which has been much of a factor except for the early part of the season like it usually is. The fact of the matter is that there isn’t any meaningful widespread dry air or SAL anywhere in the western part of the basin that is keeping it quiet since Laura. Good fortune is what we are enjoying at the moment.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvupper&time=

[SFLcane]

Labor Day weekend 2020 has started and just no real threats to any land areas outside maybe the Cabo Verde islands with a wave to exit Africa this week. Looking at the loop just not much going on outside of some “fruit salad” in the far eastern Atlantic shaded by NHC. Plenty of dry air is still around, here in South Florida hazy skies were widespread today. Also the board feels a bit quiet lately considering the time of year it is which is another indicator no real threats to land that we can see. Let’s hope this good news continues.

https://i.postimg.cc/13DM1Nx6/ED200995-4-D74-4-D49-B4-CC-11667-FBFC275.gif

You have been like a pezz dispenser this year when it comes to the comments you make regarding dry air and or SAL. Neither of which has been much of a factor except for the early part of the season like it usually is. The fact of the matter is that there isn’t any meaningful widespread dry air or SAL anywhere in the western part of the basin that is keeping it quiet since Laura. Good fortune is what we are enjoying at the moment.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvupper&time=

Amen to that sir! Will it last to till the end of the season who knows.

[toad strangler]

Labor Day weekend 2020 has started and just no real threats to any land areas outside maybe the Cabo Verde islands with a wave to exit Africa this week. Looking at the loop just not much going on outside of some “fruit salad” in the far eastern Atlantic shaded by NHC. Plenty of dry air is still around, here in South Florida hazy skies were widespread today. Also the board feels a bit quiet lately considering the time of year it is which is another indicator no real threats to land that we can see. Let’s hope this good news continues.

https://i.postimg.cc/13DM1Nx6/ED200995-4-D74-4-D49-B4-CC-11667-FBFC275.gif

You have been like a pezz dispenser this year when it comes to the comments you make regarding dry air and or SAL. Neither of which has been much of a factor except for the early part of the season like it usually is. The fact of the matter is that there isn’t any meaningful widespread dry air or SAL anywhere in the western part of the basin that is keeping it quiet since Laura. Good fortune is what we are enjoying at the moment.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvupper&time=

Amen to that sir! Will it last to till the end of the season who knows.

Good fortune on the FL peninsula I should have said ..... obviously I did not mean to ignore those affected significantly by Hurricane Laura, Isaias, or Hanna

[SFLcane]

You have been like a pezz dispenser this year when it comes to the comments you make regarding dry air and or SAL. Neither of which has been much of a factor except for the early part of the season like it usually is. The fact of the matter is that there isn’t any meaningful widespread dry air or SAL anywhere in the western part of the basin that is keeping it quiet since Laura. Good fortune is what we are enjoying at the moment.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvupper&time=

Amen to that sir! Will it last to till the end of the season who knows.

Good fortune on the FL peninsula I should have said ..... obviously I did not mean to ignore those affected significantly by Hurricane Laura, Isaias, or Hanna

Sure thing it’s been an active season for the US. Will surely be cranking out ace next 2 weeks. Pattern right now is like 2010 which favored plenty out to sea storms. I am curious to see if we do get anymore close to home development during the remainder of the season. FL has no doubt been “beyond lucky “ in terms of significant impacts.

[TheStormExpert]

Amen to that sir! Will it last to till the end of the season who knows.

Good fortune on the FL peninsula I should have said ..... obviously I did not mean to ignore those affected significantly by Hurricane Laura, Isaias, or Hanna

Sure thing it’s been an active season for the US. Will surely be cranking out ace next 2 weeks. Pattern right now is like 2010 which favored plenty out to sea storms. I am curious to see if we do get anymore close to home development during the remainder of the season. FL has no doubt been “beyond lucky “ in terms of significant impacts.

Considering some including you were thinking a much more dangerous steering pattern a lot like 2004 was to take place this month. It’s strange too because the NAO is positive and the PNA is negative which would favor extensive ridging you’d think. Then again when the NAO was negative we saw ridging as opposed to an East Coast trough.

Maybe October will bring us something (hopefully not), but as many have consistently stated, Florida has been so dang lucky!

[SFLcane]

Good fortune on the FL peninsula I should have said ..... obviously I did not mean to ignore those affected significantly by Hurricane Laura, Isaias, or Hanna

Sure thing it’s been an active season for the US. Will surely be cranking out ace next 2 weeks. Pattern right now is like 2010 which favored plenty out to sea storms. I am curious to see if we do get anymore close to home development during the remainder of the season. FL has no doubt been “beyond lucky “ in terms of significant impacts.

Considering some including you were thinking a much more dangerous steering pattern a lot like 2004 was to take place this month. It’s strange too because the NAO is positive and the PNA is negative which would favor extensive ridging you’d think. Then again when the NAO was negative we saw ridging as opposed to an East Coast trough.

Maybe October will bring us something (hopefully not), but as many have consistently stated, Florida has been so dang lucky!

Recurving typhoons can change things. This is why seasonal forecast don’t include steering. Just because some of these waves will stay out to sea doesn’t mean it’s not a busy season.

[Shell Mound]

Good fortune on the FL peninsula I should have said ..... obviously I did not mean to ignore those affected significantly by Hurricane Laura, Isaias, or Hanna

Sure thing it’s been an active season for the US. Will surely be cranking out ace next 2 weeks. Pattern right now is like 2010 which favored plenty out to sea storms. I am curious to see if we do get anymore close to home development during the remainder of the season. FL has no doubt been “beyond lucky “ in terms of significant impacts.

Considering some including you were thinking a much more dangerous steering pattern a lot like 2004 was to take place this month. It’s strange too because the NAO is positive and the PNA is negative which would favor extensive ridging you’d think. Then again when the NAO was negative we saw ridging as opposed to an East Coast trough.

Maybe October will bring us something (hopefully not), but as many have consistently stated, Florida has been so dang lucky!

Ridging has been quite strong this year, as the high number of U.S. impacts has shown, especially Laura.

Nevertheless, the ridging has tended to be too far north at times, allowing weaknesses to form underneath.

[TheStormExpert]

Sure thing it’s been an active season for the US. Will surely be cranking out ace next 2 weeks. Pattern right now is like 2010 which favored plenty out to sea storms. I am curious to see if we do get anymore close to home development during the remainder of the season. FL has no doubt been “beyond lucky “ in terms of significant impacts.

Considering some including you were thinking a much more dangerous steering pattern a lot like 2004 was to take place this month. It’s strange too because the NAO is positive and the PNA is negative which would favor extensive ridging you’d think. Then again when the NAO was negative we saw ridging as opposed to an East Coast trough.

Maybe October will bring us something (hopefully not), but as many have consistently stated, Florida has been so dang lucky!

Ridging has been quite strong this year, as the high number of U.S. impacts has shown, especially Laura.

Nevertheless, the ridging has tended to be too far north at times, allowing weaknesses to form underneath.

Yes there has been ridging, but also during June to mid-August 2010 saw strong Atlantic ridging before the 180° flip to an East Coast trough. It seems the same pattern is occurring this year only the NAO is positive.

[TheStormExpert]

Sure thing it’s been an active season for the US. Will surely be cranking out ace next 2 weeks. Pattern right now is like 2010 which favored plenty out to sea storms. I am curious to see if we do get anymore close to home development during the remainder of the season. FL has no doubt been “beyond lucky “ in terms of significant impacts.

Considering some including you were thinking a much more dangerous steering pattern a lot like 2004 was to take place this month. It’s strange too because the NAO is positive and the PNA is negative which would favor extensive ridging you’d think. Then again when the NAO was negative we saw ridging as opposed to an East Coast trough.

Maybe October will bring us something (hopefully not), but as many have consistently stated, Florida has been so dang lucky!

Recurving typhoons can change things. This is why seasonal forecast don’t include steering. Just because some of these waves will stay out to sea doesn’t mean it’s not a busy season.

It’s strange that recurving typhoons in the West Pacific can cause such abrupt changes to steering in the Atlantic.

Not saying this season won’t be busy as it already has been record breaking busy but like we saw in 2010 if everything stays at sea and affects no land than really it isn’t a busy season. But of course we’ve already seen 7 TC’s, including 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane affect the U.S.

[ClarCari]

Labor Day weekend 2020 has started and just no real threats to any land areas outside maybe the Cabo Verde islands with a wave to exit Africa this week. Looking at the loop just not much going on outside of some “fruit salad” in the far eastern Atlantic shaded by NHC. Plenty of dry air is still around, here in South Florida hazy skies were widespread today. Also the board feels a bit quiet lately considering the time of year it is which is another indicator no real threats to land that we can see. Let’s hope this good news continues.

https://i.postimg.cc/13DM1Nx6/ED200995-4-D74-4-D49-B4-CC-11667-FBFC275.gif

You have been like a pezz dispenser this year when it comes to dry air and or SAL. Neither of which has been much of a factor except for the early part of the season like it usually is. The fact of the matter is that there isn’t any meaningful widespread dry air or SAL anywhere in the western part of the basin that is keeping it quiet since Laura. Good fortune is what we are enjoying at the moment.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvupper&time=

Yurrp, you can clearly see the SAL retreating back to Africa in the animation loop, and the dry air is starting to thin out already. By tomorrow and into the week there should be hardly anything stopping these waves.

[psyclone]

It's pretty quiet for early september. I know things are going to pop soon but a Labor day weekend with no threats doesn't jive with this year's narrative. We are dancing through the minefield that is early September unscathed. I don't expect it to last but by any measure it is a win. Enjoy the break

[MarioProtVI]

It's pretty quiet for early september. I know things are going to pop soon but a Labor day weekend with no threats doesn't jive with this year's narrative. We are dancing through the minefield that is early September unscathed. I don't expect it to last but by any measure it is a win. Enjoy the break

The lit match can only avoid hitting the gasoline for so much longer.

[aspen]

I can’t be the only one who’s kinda getting an October feeling from the season right now. We’ve already had just about a full season’s worth of named storms, hurricanes, and majors, as well as the now annual long-tracking destructive major, and we’ve already passed O on the name list. It feels like this is where we would be sometime in October, not in early September. However, in a few days it’ll definitely feel like September once those waves start developing, and it’s very likely we’ll have Paulette and Rene by Tuesday/Wednesday.

[ClarCari]

I can’t be the only one who’s kinda getting an October feeling from the season right now. We’ve already had just about a full season’s worth of named storms, hurricanes, and majors, as well as the now annual long-tracking destructive major, and we’ve already passed O on the name list. It feels like this is where we would be sometime in October, not in early September. However, in a few days it’ll definitely feel like September once those waves start developing, and it’s very likely we’ll have Paulette and Rene by Tuesday/Wednesday.

My gut tells me October won’t feel like October either.

I kinda expected since the beginning for a crossover between 2005 with number of names storms and landfalls, and 2017 with most intensity in the peak months, but there’s every reason to believe October could be almost if not as crazy as 2005, and at least more active than October 2017.

[EquusStorm]

Rapidly losing the ability to keep track anymore! While we're watching waves sit in, y'know, the totally absolutely normal early September mid-MDR stationary monsoon trough with screaming westerlies at 10°N merge and wobble all around, every thunderstorm and whiff of vorticity to the west randomly spins into a tropical storm overnight. It feels like a whole season already and honestly, basically is, by total named storm count. Absolutely wild to think that peak is still ahead, and there's STILL half a dozen things trying to spin up ahead of the big boy waves. Just too much goin' on. The season hasn't just gone off the rails, it's jumped the track so far the rails are a county away

[gatorcane]

For those doubting the GFS cold front, it is back to showing quite a front for this time of year with timeframe coming in. This brings lows to mid 50s across the northern Gulf. Also weakens the Bermuda High considerably. The cool weather sticks around for several days if not longer. SSTs across the northern Gulf will take a considerable hit if this happens.