Appears the models something right for once.
GFS,EURO, ICON all take it W to WSW and then Somewhere near the Carolinas.
COnvection starting to look more tropical this afternoon and definitely needs to be watched.

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'CaneFreak wrote:Hey Aric,
Given the tiny nature of this system and the global models inability to "see" these types of systems, I think you are spot on. It is worth a watch. Good catch.
LarryWx wrote:Good catch. This is related to the JB named ridge over troubled waters homegrown pattern. The Euro and ICON have been all over this although they have mainly had this remain weak other than one Euro run. Currently, this in whatever form appears to be destined for the SE coast, most likely around late Wed to Thu.
Aric Dunn wrote:Coming along.
sustained convection now for 8 hours.
closed circ and winds around 30kts.
couple wind barbs at 35kts. but its scat sat..
http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/scasa_20200905_23_39_flag.png
LarryWx wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Coming along.
sustained convection now for 8 hours.
closed circ and winds around 30kts.
couple wind barbs at 35kts. but its scat sat..
http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/scasa_20200905_23_39_flag.png
Aric,
It looks like you posted the wrong scat sat.
northjaxpro wrote:The track would look eerily similar to Beryl 2012 on that ICON run
Aric Dunn wrote:oddly there is a secondary circ that has developed to the south that is in a low shear environment and is currently gaining more convection. the one to the north has been sheared.
so those southern EPS tracks might be more plausible.
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