ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Real Earth visible loop.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

[wxman57]

Quite a large break in the ridge along 50W. Fortunately, it looks like it will turn north well east of the Caribbean. EC does indicate a possible east US coast threat in 10 days, but it has been very inconsistent from run to run.

It also looks at least as good as Omar did while the NHC called it a TD for two days with no organized thunderstorms. Of course, this disturbance has multiple centers and Omar had but one. Could have 3-4 named storms at once in the Atlantic in 7-10 days, all out in the middle of nowhere, I hope. I can take more days off next week.

[MarioProtVI]

Quite a large break in the ridge along 50W. Fortunately, it looks like it will turn north well east of the Caribbean. EC does indicate a possible east US coast threat in 10 days, but it has been very inconsistent from run to run.

It also looks at least as good as Omar did while the NHC called it a TD for two days with no organized thunderstorms. Of course, this disturbance has multiple centers and Omar had but one. Could have 3-4 named storms at once in the Atlantic in 7-10 days, all out in the middle of nowhere, I hope. I can take more days off next week.

After Fay and Isaias we don’t need any more trouble up here

[cycloneye]

1. An area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast
of Africa and the Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
still not well organized. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on
Monday while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

['CaneFreak]

This one is a mess. Definitely needs to consolidate and it looks like it is trying. Looks to me like it is trying to consolidate to the south and west of where some of the models were showing it developing. Something to watch in the days ahead.

[Aric Dunn]

The break in the ridge is caused by the extra vorticity north of 92L and 93L on the GFS. then by 93L getting too close to 92L and they interact thrusting 93L NW breaking the ridge.

Euro does not do this thus.. no sharp turn..

so any turn is unlikely until western atlantic somewhere.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

92L INVEST 200906 1800 16.7N 40.6W ATL 30 1006

[wxman57]

The break in the ridge is caused by the extra vorticity north of 92L and 93L on the GFS. then by 93L getting too close to 92L and they interact thrusting 93L NW breaking the ridge.

Euro does not do this thus.. no sharp turn..

so any turn is unlikely until western atlantic somewhere.

12Z Euro turns it sharply northward well east of the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

The break in the ridge is caused by the extra vorticity north of 92L and 93L on the GFS. then by 93L getting too close to 92L and they interact thrusting 93L NW breaking the ridge.

Euro does not do this thus.. no sharp turn..

so any turn is unlikely until western atlantic somewhere.

12Z Euro turns it sharply northward well east of the islands.

first because of the interaction with 93L being shoved NW causing a shift in the mid level ridging.

not because of a trough. that comes later once the systems are farther north.

So again this interaction between 92L and 93L is quite unlikely.

[Visioen]

Too many TC's. Cannot compute.

[Jr0d]

The massive ridge pattern is done. Troughs are starting to show up on the long ranger, no way a Cape Verde system will make it.

Not convinced that the ridging will be gone for the rest of the season, but I think the CONUS is safe from a Cape Verde storm for the next 10 days++.

[sma10]

The massive ridge pattern is done. Troughs are starting to show up on the long ranger, no way a Cape Verde system will make it.

Not convinced that the ridging will be gone for the rest of the season, but I think the CONUS is safe from a Cape Verde storm for the next 10 days++.

I'm not yet convinced the models are correct 7-10 days out

[wxman57]

The break in the ridge is caused by the extra vorticity north of 92L and 93L on the GFS. then by 93L getting too close to 92L and they interact thrusting 93L NW breaking the ridge.

Euro does not do this thus.. no sharp turn..

so any turn is unlikely until western atlantic somewhere.

12Z Euro turns it sharply northward well east of the islands.

first because of the interaction with 93L being shoved NW causing a shift in the mid level ridging.

not because of a trough. that comes later once the systems are farther north.

So again this interaction between 92L and 93L is quite unlikely.

To be clear, are you predicting 92L to track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf? Not sure what you're saying. I'm thinking it won't enter the Caribbean and will most likely turn north well east of the U.S.

[SconnieCane]

12Z Euro turns it sharply northward well east of the islands.

first because of the interaction with 93L being shoved NW causing a shift in the mid level ridging.

not because of a trough. that comes later once the systems are farther north.

So again this interaction between 92L and 93L is quite unlikely.

To be clear, are you predicting 92L to track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf? Not sure what you're saying. I'm thinking it won't enter the Caribbean and will most likely turn north well east of the U.S.

I don't think he's predicting a Caribbean/Gulf track per se.

[DestinHurricane]

I don't buy the ridge weakening so much. We are still in +NAO and it's only September 6. Models are on crack until they are force fed data.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Euro turns it sharply northward well east of the islands.

first because of the interaction with 93L being shoved NW causing a shift in the mid level ridging.

not because of a trough. that comes later once the systems are farther north.

So again this interaction between 92L and 93L is quite unlikely.

To be clear, are you predicting 92L to track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf? Not sure what you're saying. I'm thinking it won't enter the Caribbean and will most likely turn north well east of the U.S.

right to your house right ?

[DestinHurricane]

first because of the interaction with 93L being shoved NW causing a shift in the mid level ridging.

not because of a trough. that comes later once the systems are farther north.

So again this interaction between 92L and 93L is quite unlikely.

To be clear, are you predicting 92L to track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf? Not sure what you're saying. I'm thinking it won't enter the Caribbean and will most likely turn north well east of the U.S.

right to your house right ?

Certainly a possibility it gets into the Gulf if a magic trapdoor doesn't open somewhere. After all, it's still september 6, it's not october just yet. This is still the heart of Cape Verde season.

[Aric Dunn]

To be clear, are you predicting 92L to track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf? Not sure what you're saying. I'm thinking it won't enter the Caribbean and will most likely turn north well east of the U.S.

right to your house right ?

Certainly a possibility it gets into the Gulf if a magic trapdoor doesn't open somewhere. After all, it's still september 6, it's not october just yet. This is still the heart of Cape Verde season.

mentioned earlier that a western atlantic turn is most likely. the solutions turning north before reaching the longitude of the islands is very unlikely since the initial turn is from the interaction of 92L and 93L. which is the real issue with the models.

[sma10]

right to your house right ?

Certainly a possibility it gets into the Gulf if a magic trapdoor doesn't open somewhere. After all, it's still september 6, it's not october just yet. This is still the heart of Cape Verde season.

mentioned earlier that a western atlantic turn is most likely. the solutions turning north before reaching the longitude of the islands is very unlikely since the initial turn is from the interaction of 92L and 93L. which is the real issue with the models.

Note the HWRF. Around 19.5n 58w at end of run. No interaction with 93L

[gfsperpendicular]

To be clear, are you predicting 92L to track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf? Not sure what you're saying. I'm thinking it won't enter the Caribbean and will most likely turn north well east of the U.S.

right to your house right ?

Certainly a possibility it gets into the Gulf if a magic trapdoor doesn't open somewhere. After all, it's still september 6, it's not october just yet. This is still the heart of Cape Verde season.

Still seems like a pretty fringe outcome to me. I think Bermuda is the most likely land to be impacted, maybe followed by Newfoundland, but I do think it'll end up towards the western end of the envelope.