WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

https://i.imgur.com/4IMC2fx.png

https://i.imgur.com/qhqoiEW.png

Haishen looks rejuvenated.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/NHKWORLD_News/status/1302508863959322624




Live

[youtube]https://youtu.be/RyYKCANht1E[/youtube]

[euro6208]

Haishen lashing violent winds and rains to Kyushu and now South Korea!

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1302586242807209984

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1302581971613134849

[doomhaMwx]

ASCAT passes showing Haishen's large wind field.

[euro6208]

Its pretty sad how little to no coverage this is getting. Imagine the 3rd largest city in the U.S getting hit back to back?

Going on for decades.

[1900hurricane]

Very strong winds, the strongest I've seen associated with the system so far, were recorded in the eastern eyewall in Nomozaki. Sustained 10 minute winds of 43.7 m/s with a gust of 59.4 m/s were just recorded.

[NotoSans]

Record-breaking pressure of 951.7mb from Fukue Island. Central pressure estimated at 940mb using Schloemer equation, but more uncertain than usual due to irregular eye making RMW and center position estimation more difficult.
 https://twitter.com/homosapieninhk/status/1302659719190831106

[NotoSans]

Nomomachi (altitude 190m) recorded maximum sustained winds of 44.2m/s gusting 59.4m/s.
The latter figure is record-breaking but full record for gusts only began in 2009. The former figure is lower than 46m/s set by Shanshan'06 and 45m/s set by Mireille'91.

Fukue Island's MSLP was 949.9mb, recorded at 0220JST.

[sikkar]

Just logged in to ask about pressure at Fukue island since I couldn't find it anywhere. Thanks for posting guys. This forum is truly great.

[sikkar]

Korean radar showing an intense northern eye wall.

https://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/images/radar.jsp

[NotoSans]

Surface observations from Tsushima Island suggest Haishen has weakened to a 950mb storm. It would make landfall over South Korea soon, and the intensity is similar to Maysak's.
 https://twitter.com/homosapieninhk/status/1302743414522298369

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

Appears to have made landfall near/over South Korea's Busan this morning with an intensity more or less similar to Maysak when it hit same area last week. Station there recorded a min SLP of 957.6 mb.

[ElectricStorm]

Down to TS
11W HAISHEN 200907 0000 35.5N 128.9E WPAC 45 966

[doomhaMwx]

TY 2010 (Haishen)
Issued at 01:45 UTC, 7 September 2020

<Analysis at 01 UTC, 7 September>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N36°05' (36.1°)
E129°20' (129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 165 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 700 km (375 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 26 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AFTER
IT MADE LANDFALL AS EVIDENCED BY THE UNRAVELING AND COLLAPSING OF
CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE RADAR LOOP AND
TRIANGULATION OF NUMEROUS WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR
TO LANDFALL AND FROM THE SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG
(30-KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALSO, THE RUGGED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IS
GREATLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID EROSION OF THE SYSTEM FROM BELOW. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STR, MOMENTARILY EXIT INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 06, THEN MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL
INTO NORTH KOREA BY TAU 12 BEFORE CROSSING INTO MANCHURIA. THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE ADDITION OF FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISPERSE
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A 30-KNOT COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM WHICH CONTINUES TO BE AN
EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER AND DRIVES THE VORTEX INTO THE STR.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID LEFT
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Down to TS
11W HAISHEN 200907 0000 35.5N 128.9E WPAC 45 966

That was an error which JTWC has since fixed.

WP, 11, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 355N, 1289E, 65, 965, TY, 34, NEQ, 280, 290, 200, 220, 1000, 305, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAISHEN, D,
WP, 11, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 355N, 1289E, 65, 965, TY, 50, NEQ, 155, 140, 110, 110, 1000, 305, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAISHEN, D,
WP, 11, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 355N, 1289E, 65, 965, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 50, 35, 45, 1000, 305, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAISHEN, D,

WTPN32 PGTW 070300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 027A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 027A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 35.5N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 40.1N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 44.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 36.6N 128.8E. 07SEP20. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 26 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: AMENDED CURRENT INTENSITY DUE TO
OBJECTIVE WIND SPEED DATA.
//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

Down to TS
11W HAISHEN 200907 0000 35.5N 128.9E WPAC 45 966

That was an error which JTWC has since fixed.

WP, 11, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 355N, 1289E, 65, 965, TY, 34, NEQ, 280, 290, 200, 220, 1000, 305, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAISHEN, D,
WP, 11, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 355N, 1289E, 65, 965, TY, 50, NEQ, 155, 140, 110, 110, 1000, 305, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAISHEN, D,
WP, 11, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 355N, 1289E, 65, 965, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 50, 35, 45, 1000, 305, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAISHEN, D,

WTPN32 PGTW 070300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 027A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 027A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 35.5N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 40.1N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 44.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 36.6N 128.8E. 07SEP20. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 26 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: AMENDED CURRENT INTENSITY DUE TO
OBJECTIVE WIND SPEED DATA.
//
NNNN

That makes a lot more sense. 45 kts would be quite the drop