Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was for this tropical wave.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121286
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cycloneye wrote:Showers and thunderstorms continue to steadily increase and are
showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure
system located just west of Senegal. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely there Monday
night and Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be
required for the islands by early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
aspen wrote:Maybe we’ll get PTC-18 at the 5am advisory tomorrow.
us89 wrote:aspen wrote:Maybe we’ll get PTC-18 at the 5am advisory tomorrow.
Unless it's already a TD or TS by then, of course
Aric Dunn wrote:well according to the 00z GFS.. 93L will be the longest lived TC on record by a lot lol..
Fancy1001 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:well according to the 00z GFS.. 93L will be the longest lived TC on record by a lot lol..
I doubt that. It would need to live over a month to beat Johns 31 day record. If you are just referring to the Atlantic, the record is 28 days with the 1899 San Ciríaco hurricane. 93l would need to survive an additional 13 days past what is shown in the model to take the Atlantic record. I'm not saying it isn't possible, just extremely extremely unlikely.
Aric Dunn wrote:Fancy1001 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:well according to the 00z GFS.. 93L will be the longest lived TC on record by a lot lol..
I doubt that. It would need to live over a month to beat Johns 31 day record. If you are just referring to the Atlantic, the record is 28 days with the 1899 San Ciríaco hurricane. 93l would need to survive an additional 13 days past what is shown in the model to take the Atlantic record. I'm not saying it isn't possible, just extremely extremely unlikely.
First off.. lets stick with the atlantic and modern realistic data..
Secondly. I was extrapolating the motion at the end of the run.. how far south and the ridging building in..
it all points to surviving long after the GFS ended.
of course it was all laughable to begin with ... but..
Fancy1001 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Fancy1001 wrote:I doubt that. It would need to live over a month to beat Johns 31 day record. If you are just referring to the Atlantic, the record is 28 days with the 1899 San Ciríaco hurricane. 93l would need to survive an additional 13 days past what is shown in the model to take the Atlantic record. I'm not saying it isn't possible, just extremely extremely unlikely.
First off.. lets stick with the atlantic and modern realistic data..
Secondly. I was extrapolating the motion at the end of the run.. how far south and the ridging building in..
it all points to surviving long after the GFS ended.
of course it was all laughable to begin with ... but..
If you want to use a more modern example, ginger lasted 27 days in 1971, and Nadine lasted 22 days in 2012.
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