ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[hipshot]

NHC track is the only conculsion any of us could come up with based on the models.

So we wait..as models will continue to be all over the place with track, intensity and just the complex mechanisms involved in the future track.

So what are the odds that the ridge builds in deeper and pushes it further west. With earlier storms the models would under do the ridge early on and each runs after it got named would show a deeper ridge. Is that less likely to happen now? Is there a trough that should come through and send these storms OTS?

That's definitely a possibility, especially with the +NAO and +AO.

What is NAO abd AO, I've seen these in other posts.

[DestinHurricane]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302980292093841408

I suspected it was decoupled when I saw the exposed LLC earlier. On the most recent frames, the LLC appears to be rotating closer to the MLC and mass of convection.

If the LLC and MLC can get stacked for 24-36 hours, Paulette could make a run for hurricane status. The NHC has moderately favorable conditions for the next two days or so.

I agree that it will make a run at Cat 1

If it doesn't recurve east of 60W then I could see it getting into favorable conditions in the western atlantic and going major. That certainly cannot be ruled out.

[Dean_175]

First NHC advisory has the storm peaking as a 55 kt TS.

Are we gonna get to the Greek letters this year with only one major? Lol

[DestinHurricane]

So what are the odds that the ridge builds in deeper and pushes it further west. With earlier storms the models would under do the ridge early on and each runs after it got named would show a deeper ridge. Is that less likely to happen now? Is there a trough that should come through and send these storms OTS?

That's definitely a possibility, especially with the +NAO and +AO.

What is NAO abd AO, I've seen these in other posts.

North Atlantic Oscillation. Positive NAO is usually associated with more ridging over the Atlantic. Negative NAO is associated with Azores high weaker and not extending so far W. It is much more complicated than this but this is what is relevant here.

AO is artic oscillation. +AO means more stable jet stream and more north. -AO means jet stream will dip down south. Again, this is the one sentence answer. You can read up more detailed on the web.

[aspen]

Current N. Atlantic basin tally:

16 named tropical cyclones

5 hurricanes

1 major

At this time next week, we could be looking at 18 named TCs, 7 hurricanes, and (maybe) 2 majors. Absolutely insane for early-mid September.

[al78]

What a bizarre season this is turning out to be. No problem spawning storms but every problem intensifying them. At this rate we'll be in the Greek alphabet with barely an average number of hurricanes.

[aspen]

What a bizarre season this is turning out to be. No problem spawning storms but every problem intensifying them. At this rate we'll be in the Greek alphabet with barely an average number of hurricanes.

Well, Paulette isn’t in too bad of a spot, and the main problem with TD18 for the next 2-3 days is only decently favorable SSTs. There’s a decent chance of both of them becoming hurricanes and getting 2020’s total just above average before Sally arrives.

[shiny-pebble]

The LLC and MLC don't look aligned but it looks a little better than this morning IMO. Maybe DMAX could help it fire off some stronger convection to pull the LLC under. We'll see.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[plasticup]

What a bizarre season this is turning out to be. No problem spawning storms but every problem intensifying them. At this rate we'll be in the Greek alphabet with barely an average number of hurricanes.

Some models show the next three storms all becoming hurricanes (and a couple as majors) which would balance the ratios somewhat.

[aspen]

Paulette looks pretty decent in the last hour or so of daylight. The LLC has been under the blob of convection and (presumably) the MLC for a few hours, so Dmax could help tighten and stack the storm.

[AxaltaRacing24]

What a bizarre season this is turning out to be. No problem spawning storms but every problem intensifying them. At this rate we'll be in the Greek alphabet with barely an average number of hurricanes.

dry air and shear plagued the first half of the season, but with SAL basically gone now, we should get a major or 2 in the next few weeks. only potential issue would be shear.

[Shell Mound]

What a bizarre season this is turning out to be. No problem spawning storms but every problem intensifying them. At this rate we'll be in the Greek alphabet with barely an average number of hurricanes.

dry air and shear plagued the first half of the season, ...

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1301565766995554304

[ClarCari]

New advisory forecast now has Paulette plateauing in strength instead of slowly weakening which could be a baby step to saying it may actually strengthen over time instead of weaken.

[AxaltaRacing24]

What a bizarre season this is turning out to be. No problem spawning storms but every problem intensifying them. At this rate we'll be in the Greek alphabet with barely an average number of hurricanes.

dry air and shear plagued the first half of the season, ...

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1301565766995554304

yeah, put a lid on it would have been a better phrase lol. i didn't mean it like that. i was trying to say that dry air and shear prevented a full 2005 repeat in terms of intensity.

[aspen]

A blend of CIMSS’s experimental satellite estimate and current ADT numbers supports an intensity of 40 kt. If the currently firing hot towers cover more of the center by 00z, it could be worthy of 45 kt.

[TJRE]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

sweet spot on the TPW guidance has dropped southwest....
Bad vibes with this system, might be a long week of tracking
check out the GFS shift in the model thread

does this grab your attention?????

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined

[shiny-pebble]

Has that shrimp shape

[Hurricaneman]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

sweet spot on the TPW guidance has dropped southwest....
Bad vibes with this system, might be a long week of tracking
check out the GFS shift in the model thread

does this grab your attention?????
https://imgur.com/1RoPf1N

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined

The 18zGFS has this at 70w, any farther west and we possibly have a major problem, we have to see if the trough is strong enough or far enough east to sweep this out to sea away form land or if this could be a Florida to Carolinas threat

[cycloneye]

17L PAULETTE 200908 0000 17.6N 42.4W ATL 40 1004

[Hurricaneman]

These are the opinions of a non professional, for official products check out the NHC, NWS and NOAA

My forecast for Paulette

This should strengthen to a hurricane the next 3 days and possibly a major by day 5. The timing of the recurve will be important for Bermuda and the eastern seaboard so here are the chances for these scenarios

Recurve East of Bermuda. 15%
Recurve over or near Bermuda. 20%
Recurve between Bermuda and North Carolina. 55%
Recurve into the Southeastern US 10%

So interest in Bermuda need to watch this

Now TS. 45mph
12hrs. TS. 60mph
24hrs. TS. 70mph
36hrs. C1. 80mph
48hrs. C1. 90mph
72hrs. C2. 105mph
96hrs. C3. 120mph
120hrs. C4. 130mph
144hrs. C4. 135mph
168hrs. C3. 120mph

Weakens as it heads between Bermuda and North Carolina