SW of Bermuda (Is Invest 94L)

[northjaxpro]

The new 00Z EURO run does pick up on 850 mb vorticity and moves it generally west to the Georgia /SC coast in 120 hours (00Z Saturday). 00Z GFS is a bit faster, moving the 850 mb vort to the SC coast in 96 hours .This will likely now get an.invest tag soon.

Also, latest 850 mb vorticity analysis shows a very impressive vorticity signature in the area well to the south of Bermuda. Sateliite imagery currently shows good convective bursting around 26N 63W. It seems to me that this is the actual suspect area, not the naked swirl to its northwest.

[GCANE]

IMHO GFS is over doing shear on this all the way to the coast.
CIMSS and WV imagery looks like 355K PV is in the clear while GFS has a moderate amount.
Forecast has it pretty much under an anticyclone to the coast while GFS has it about 13 to 15 knots of continuous shear.
Going to be tracking thru very moist troposphere.
I am tending toward the ICON solution.
A TD is possible. A slight chance of a TS, all IMHO.

[Aric Dunn]

Another Vort has popped out of the convection. the original one looks like it will rotate back SW a little and should provide a good burst of convection as it does so later today.

shear should slowly drop starting later today as well.

[LarryWx]

Not to leave off the low SW of Bermuda, these 3 (NC, SC, just offshore FL) on hour 132 of the 12Z EPS are from that:

[LarryWx]

18Z ICON: landfall as a 997 mb TS Myrtle Beach at hour 120

[Aric Dunn]

Right on queue with the shear lightening up. convection building back near the center.

[Steve]

ICON gets the gold star if this develops. And if so, it’s becoming a marker for possible genesis. Other models had ripples in the isobars and an occasional spin. It hinted since last Wednesday, and had to resolve we weren’t getting a super progressive long wave.

[us89]

Up to 20/40 on the latest TWO:

1. An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles southwest of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Should be tagged an invest fairly soon.

[WxEp]

AL, 94, 2020090718, , BEST, 0, 299N, 672W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 160, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041, SPAWNINVEST, al762020 to al942020,

[northjaxpro]

Lol.. Well right on cue!

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L is up