ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[AveryTheComrade]

These are the opinions of a non professional, for official products check out the NHC, NWS and NOAA

My forecast for Paulette

This should strengthen to a hurricane the next 3 days and possibly a major by day 5. The timing of the recurve will be important for Bermuda and the eastern seaboard so here are the chances for these scenarios

Recurve East of Bermuda. 15%
Recurve over or near Bermuda. 20%
Recurve between Bermuda and North Carolina. 55%
Recurve into the Southeastern US 10%

So interest in Bermuda need to watch this

Now TS. 45mph
12hrs. TS. 60mph
24hrs. TS. 70mph
36hrs. C1. 80mph
48hrs. C1. 90mph
72hrs. C2. 105mph
96hrs. C3. 120mph
120hrs. C4. 130mph
144hrs. C4. 135mph
168hrs. C3. 120mph

Weakens as it heads between Bermuda and North Carolina

The storm will face over 30 knots of shear in the short term and will only briefly have a window to strengthen near Bermuda. I highly doubt this storm getting above a category 2. Also, 135mph isn't used.

[CyclonicFury]

Right now, Paulette looks decent, with the LLC on the SW edge of the convective canopy. Without any microwave or ASCAT data available recently, it is unclear of Paulette's exact intensity. Some additional intensification appears likely for the next 24-48 hours. However, after that time, the SHIPS guidance and the global models indicate a significant increase in southwesterly shear. The HWRF solution of a major hurricane in 5 days is an outlier and not in line with the rest of the global models. However, the environment could become more favorable past 5, and this is when the GFS and ECMWF show reintensification of Paulette. IMO, the chances of Paulette becoming a hurricane in the next 5 days are low.

[DestinHurricane]

These are the opinions of a non professional, for official products check out the NHC, NWS and NOAA

My forecast for Paulette

This should strengthen to a hurricane the next 3 days and possibly a major by day 5. The timing of the recurve will be important for Bermuda and the eastern seaboard so here are the chances for these scenarios

Recurve East of Bermuda. 15%
Recurve over or near Bermuda. 20%
Recurve between Bermuda and North Carolina. 55%
Recurve into the Southeastern US 10%

So interest in Bermuda need to watch this

Now TS. 45mph
12hrs. TS. 60mph
24hrs. TS. 70mph
36hrs. C1. 80mph
48hrs. C1. 90mph
72hrs. C2. 105mph
96hrs. C3. 120mph
120hrs. C4. 130mph
144hrs. C4. 135mph
168hrs. C3. 120mph

Weakens as it heads between Bermuda and North Carolina

I agree mostly. It should find some favorable conditions later on. I doubt it will be a hurricane in 36 hours though.

I think we will continue to see west shifts. IMO Conus should be much higher than 10%.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[aspen]

The NHC calls for restrengthening at the end of the forecast period as Paulette moves past the trough axis into a more favorable environment. It peaks at 55 kt, weakens to 45 kt, and then returns to 50 kt in 120 hours.

[us89]

NHC officially bumps this to 45 mph in the latest update:

...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 42.5W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[EquusStorm]

Given the west shifts I get the feeling that this one could be hanging around for a while if it can survive the medium-term shear. Certainly wouldn't bet against Hurricane Paulette by next week sometime.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT27 KNES 080610
TCSNTL

A. 17L (PAULETTE)

B. 08/0530Z

C. 17.9N

D. 42.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...0.6 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS ALSO
3.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES WITH THE MET AT 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON
THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT BAND LENGTH THAT COULD AFFECT THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[galaxy401]

Yep the Best Track is now up to 45 kt.

[Hammy]

Wonder if this can pull a Bertha 08/Florence 18 and feed off the shear long enough before decoupling to far surpass the intensity forecast. Seems like the center is pretty embedded in the convection at the moment.

[TJRE]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... orbar=data

[Shell Mound]

Based on recent IR and visible imagery, Paulette is likely in the range of 55–65 knots, given its compact inner core and hints of an eye.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1303307539317248001

[aspen]

8z microwave pass shows an eyewall trying to form. Blended ADT and experimental satellite estimates support 50 kt, but perhaps Paulette could be 55-60 kt.

[aspen]

12z best track went higher: 55 kt and 995 mbar. Paulette is really trying hard to become a hurricane, isn’t she?

[EquusStorm]

Not bad at all. Ought to survive the incoming temporary onslaught of shear.

[aspen]

In the 11am forecast discussion, they mention that Paulette could briefly become a hurricane before shear picks up tomorrow, although for now the official forecast track has it peaking at 60 kt.

[jconsor]

My updated thoughts on longer-term risk of Paulette impacts to US East Coast - looking like less of a clear miss than yesterday.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1303341997625880577

[aspen]

Eyewall is gone. Shear really seems to be giving Paulette some issues now.

[Sciencerocks]

Eyewall is gone. Shear really seems to be giving Paulette some issues now.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al17/amsusr89/2020al17_amsusr89_202009081136.gif

Shear has done a damn good job this season outside of Laura! It allows systems to develop but then it caps the hell out of them. I wouldn't expect this too strengthen again until it is north of 25. Example is Irene 2005!

[EquusStorm]

Gonna be rough sailing for a little while but seems vigorous enough to survive