BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 56.1W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
and a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a
turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday
evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is
forecast to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday.
RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's cloud
pattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulette
maybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced
Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the
cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding
is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The
subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven't
changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60
kt.
The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shear
magnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much more
diffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicate
that the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a
hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early
Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this
scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity
forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is
close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity
model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity
errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette
will likely be nearest to Bermuda.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone should
continue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulette
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward
the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in
forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in
response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough.
The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some
minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it's quite certain
that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it's a
little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC
track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is
based on the various multi-model guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming
increasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane
watch have been issued for the island.
2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 26.8N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 56.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday
evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Paulette is forecast to
become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday.
RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg