Will 2020 reach the Greek Alphabet names in the Atlantic?

[Ryxn]

All 2020 needs to do to break the worldwide record is to get to Gamma before October 1 (24 total), have 10 storms in October (34 total), 4 in November, and 2 in December and BAMM, 40 named storms!



While theoretically possible, it is extremely unlikely we'll have a late September AND October be quiet that active. The record for most storms in September and October is 8 and Gamma before October 1 would mean 13 storms in September. Very lol but we're at nearly 5 going into the first third of the month. But with such a bonkers September, the equivalent for October is not very luckily. There should be some sort of lull.

However let me remind you that 2005 only had 3 instances of 2 or more weeks (+/- a day or 2) of not having a storm active but these never occurred during the heart of the season (late-August to mid-October)

They were:
June 14-27 (14 days) between Arlene and Bret
November 1-13 (13 days) between Beta and Gamma
December 9-29 (21 days) between Epsilon and Zeta


It may not be very probable but still it paints a clear picture as to why it's not too far fetched to believe 2020 could surpass 05's 28 named storms or break 30 this year.

Also at 40 named storms, we'd be all the way at Tau, the 19th letter of the Greek Alphabet

Cheers!

[Fancy1001]

Twas never a matter of if, only when.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF took us all the way to Vicky in 10 days.

It's going to be weird seeing Tropical Storm Alpha, Beta, et cetera again, but it's looking very probable at this point.

[St0rmTh0r]

The forecast of a hyperactive season seem to be verifying to say the least. It would be insanity to see the list exhausted before the end of the month but its looking inevitable

[EquusStorm]

Not too long ago I would've laughed at a prediction that we'd hit the Greeks before early to mid October, but honestly we could easily run out of names in SEPTEMBER. The question is no longer will we hit the Greeks, but how far into them we'll go. If trends toward a La Niña and a favorable MJO in October pan out, keeping us active into November, passing or at least getting to Zeta/Eta and thus the 2005 count (though only in named storms not hurricanes) is honestly looking surprisingly feasible...

[Extratropical94]

Current head-to-head

[chaser1]

Someone, somewhere is gonna wake up from a coma in mid November and suddenly hear the T.V. blurting out something about ".... Hurricane Zeta rapidly intensifying over the northwest Caribbean..." and wonder what world they were living on LOL! My personal Greek name favorite though..... probably Hurricane Mu.

[ElectricStorm]

If everything on the current TWO develops that will be Wilfred. Anything after that would be greeks

[Ptarmigan]

At this point, very likely.

[CrazyC83]

Updating the trends to September 14 at 2359Z and assuming we get Teddy at the next update. Using the number of storms we've had up to this point (19) and what each season from 1995 to 2019 had from mid-September onward, we'd end up at with a similar pace as now (bold = Greek, red = ties or breaks 2005 record):

1995 - 6 (Delta)
1996 - 5 (Gamma)
1997 - 2 (Wilfred)
1998 - 8 (Zeta)
1999 - 5 (Gamma)
2000 - 9 (Eta)
2001 - 8 (Zeta)
2002 - 4 (Beta)
2003 - 8 (Zeta)
2004 - 5 (Gamma)
2005 - 13 (Lambda)
2006 - 1 (Vicky)
2007 - 6 (Delta)
2008 - 6 (Delta)
2009 - 3 (Alpha)
2010 - 8 (Zeta)
2011 - 4 (Beta)
2012 - 5 (Gamma)
2013 - 5 (Gamma)
2014 - 3 (Alpha)
2015 - 3 (Alpha)
2016 - 5 (Gamma)
2017 - 6 (Delta)
2018 - 5 (Gamma)
2019 - 10 (Theta)

23 out of 25 years from 1995 to 2019 had a pace from September 15 onward that would get us into the Greek letters in 2020. Only a very quiet second half, seen only in quiet El Nino fall seasons, would keep us out of Greek. 3 of the seasons would get us to 28 or more storms (a 2005-like pace the rest of the way ends us at 32 named storms).

[aspen]

At this rate, it’s very possible we’ll get to Alpha before October 1st. We’ll only need three more systems to form in September after Teddy, which isn’t much to ask for since it’s still only September 13th.

[TheStormExpert]

At this rate, it’s very possible we’ll get to Alpha before October 1st. We’ll only need three more systems to form in September after Teddy, which isn’t much to ask for since it’s still only September 13th.

Assuming TD #20 becomes Teddy. I have doubts Invest 97L or the wave currently over west Africa amount to much. But we could easily see Vicky and Wilfred by months end considering there’s still 17 days left of the month.

[Hammy]

At this rate, it’s very possible we’ll get to Alpha before October 1st. We’ll only need three more systems to form in September after Teddy, which isn’t much to ask for since it’s still only September 13th.

Assuming TD #20 becomes Teddy. I have doubts Invest 97L or the wave currently over west Africa amount to much. But we could easily see Vicky and Wilfred by months end considering there’s still 17 days left of the month.

Looks like it could be the next two waves even. That would make what, six in a row to develop if that happened?

[TheStormExpert]

At this rate, it’s very possible we’ll get to Alpha before October 1st. We’ll only need three more systems to form in September after Teddy, which isn’t much to ask for since it’s still only September 13th.

Assuming TD #20 becomes Teddy. I have doubts Invest 97L or the wave currently over west Africa amount to much. But we could easily see Vicky and Wilfred by months end considering there’s still 17 days left of the month.

Looks like it could be the next two waves even. That would make what, six in a row to develop if that happened?

Well I was wrong about 97L as that looks to have become Vicky. Let’s see if this 10/40% wave can do anything.

[CyclonicFury]

Not only does reaching the Greek alphabet seem inevitable at this point, but the question is, how deep into the Greek alphabet will we go?

I think it's a legitimate possibility we could see Epsilon return this year. I wonder how active the post-September period will be. It's going to be interesting to see if we have any activity in December this year...

[AnnularCane]

Not only does reaching the Greek alphabet seem inevitable at this point, but the question is, how deep into the Greek alphabet will we go?

I think it's a legitimate possibility we could see Epsilon return this year. I wonder how active the post-September period will be. It's going to be interesting to see if we have any activity in December this year...

Too bad it won't be the same Epsilon. I kind of enjoyed that little guy, even if the NHC didn't.

[aspen]

Not only does reaching the Greek alphabet seem inevitable at this point, but the question is, how deep into the Greek alphabet will we go?

I think it's a legitimate possibility we could see Epsilon return this year. I wonder how active the post-September period will be. It's going to be interesting to see if we have any activity in December this year...

Too bad it won't be the same Epsilon. I kind of enjoyed that little guy, even if the NHC didn't.

With our luck, Epsilon 2020 will be another long-lived system that refuses to die.

[KWT]

Well we are now pretty much at 100% going Greek, would take a very freaky quiet end to not get there and honestly given how most systems have formed, why expect that to stop now.

[CrazyC83]

Next question...can we go PAST Greek?

[chaser1]

Next question...can we go PAST Greek?

That would truly be epic