Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[Spacecoast]

Is that yellow X accurate?
Looks to be about 13N.

[AutoPenalti]

Here is what he is talking about:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2511cfd537aa98d8c92b73401e70f031cc4b19f466edbdfa11066ba4a14f651a.png

That's 12z...

I'm thinking he's talking about 18z early guidance.

[blp]

Here is what he is talking about:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2511cfd537aa98d8c92b73401e70f031cc4b19f466edbdfa11066ba4a14f651a.png

That's 12z...

I'm thinking he's talking about 18z early guidance.

Oh! I didn't think 18z would be out this early we just got the 12z. Well then please post away the 18z early guidance.

[blp]

Here is the 12z Euro Ens weathernerds graphic just uploaded. Majority into the carribean.

[USTropics]

Here is how the ECMWF ensembles played out at 228 hours. The purple box are the signatures of Paulette, the blue ellipse are the signatures for this wave, and the red circle appear to either be a wave that forms behind this wave or this wave fracturing (movement is very slow and easy to distinguish animated). If I had to guess without looking at each members run yet, the strength of Paulette and how quickly it recurves is playing a part in the strength/position of the CATL ridge and thus how far north this AEW can get at this timeframe.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

For Puerto Rico.

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/mei6kB4.png

Okay so maybe that wasn't 18z...

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro MUCH weaker.

Horrendous consistency. 00z yesterday was a major hurricane, 12z yesterday was a weak tropical storm, 00z run was a major hurricane, 12z run back to a tropical storm.

Frustrating how poorly this model has performed this season in terms of intensity.

Sounds like the 12z run is constantly weak.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... 144-240 Hours... After raking the islands looks like a recurve over E Cuba into SE Bahamas/SE FL area... Long way out...

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/mei6kB4.png

Still mostly in The Bahamas and off the Florida coastline. Still too close for comfort but it’s nearly two weeks out and going to change. The pattern remains progressive and will likely do so, not to mention the ensembles show the NAO trending back negative in two weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/uGhAOkJ.gif
12z EURO... 144-240 Hours... After raking the islands looks like a recurve over E Cuba into SE Bahamas/SE FL area... Long way out...

A track like the 12z Euro would likely be nothing much to Florida as it tracks over the very mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba.

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/mei6kB4.png

Okay so maybe that wasn't 18z...

18z? That doesn’t come out until later this evening, and they don’t even extend that far out in time like the 00z/12z runs.

[FireRat]

I’m not sure as to why people see these solutions as threatening. Until we get an actual system, preferably named, with a well-defined LLC, any modelled solution is bound to be far from reality. Respectfully, even if a professional meteorologist regards this AEW as a threat, I, personally speaking, would not be so bullish as to “sound the alarm” at this premature stage. This AEW is at least three days’ distance from the easternmost tropical Atlantic. The EPS continues to advertise a progressive pattern through the long range, which would reduce the risk of a landfall, given troughs continually eroding the WAR. Additionally, the 00Z ECMWF suggests that this AEW would near the longitude of the islands on September 18, meaning any landfall on the mainland U.S. would occur three days later—a very late date, climatologically speaking, for a long-tracking CV system to strike the U.S. mainland. At this stage, even if this system develops, I believe it will most likely curve OTS or threaten Bermuda, like Paulette and Rene. Of course, this conclusion is preliminary and probabilistic.

Hate to get somewhat political but PR is part of the U.S as a territory as well the U.S Virgin Islands.

I know, but I think this AEW will end up missing the islands as well as the mainland U.S., like Paulette and Rene. I certainly hope so. We’ll see.

Hey guys figured I'd quote this to clarify that yep, the 'big threat' comment was mainly made for the Islands including Puerto Rico. It is peak season now, and if the models are hinting at a track towards the vicinity of the islands (or even landfalling there), with such an impressive wave inside of Africa now, it warrants some sort of "alarm". Of course not a watch or warning, but a heads up that right around the time that hurricanes Hugo and Maria struck the area, we could be seeing a threatening storm or hurricane this year.

Cycloneye, I know you'll be watching this one closely, hopefully we don't see a hurricane hitting your area like some of the models were showing earlier. Lord knows PR doesn't need another hurricane after what happened there almost 3 years ago.

The mainland US, Cuba or Bahamas might be in play, but it's way too soon to tell. It would be something for around 9/22. Future Sally (or Teddy if 94L robs the S name) looks like it could be the long tracking hurricane many have speculated about happening this month, and right on time too. We wait and watch for now.
-FR

[DestinHurricane]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/mei6kB4.png

Still mostly in The Bahamas and off the Florida coastline. Still too close for comfort but it’s nearly two weeks out and going to change. The pattern remains progressive and will likely do so, not to mention the ensembles show the NAO trending back negative in two weeks.

Most models keep the NAO a strong positive for the next 2 weeks. It takes 14 days from africa to gulf so we can assume this wave will have +NAO all the way.

[Spacecoast]

Question: Why are the Global operationals so much further south, and west than their ensemble counterparts?
I would think that the operationals would be track close to the middle of the ensemble pack of members.

I was just comparing GFS-Para global vs GFS-Para ensembles, GFS vs GEFS, and ECMWF VS ECENS.
They all seem to track the most south, and west member(s).

[WeatherEmperor]

For those discussing the NAO and its implications on the track of this wave, here is today's latest update for reference




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 186-372 hours... A looooong way out...

[Kazmit]

I don't like to make comparisons this early, but a signal this strong for an inland wave developing within 5 days in this location reminds me a lot of long-trackers like Irma.