2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheStormExpert]

Five areas of interest if you count the Caribbean area that has fizzled.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1302757006546284544

[Cyclenall]

This might be the season that something actually happens during the last 3-5 days of Sept instead of "near nothing". I checked the last 3 hyperactive seasons and the only thing to note was major hurricane Lee in 2017 in the middle of the Atlantic during those last Sept days. Hurricane Joaquin was ramping up as a CAT1-2 around the turn to Oct but other than that crazy one I couldn't think of anything off the top.

[Hammy]

I've been going through the satellite data from 2005 and (minus the actual easterly flow and waves) noticed this year isn't actually too different as far as August and possibly September are concerned--from August 1 to Sep 15 the totals were 6/5/2 compared to, so far with a week to go, 8/3/1 (9/4/1 if you count Isaias since most of it's lifespan was in August)--and during that time only Irene and Maria (a month apart) became tropical storms in the tropical Atlantic.

[jconsor]

Very informative thread here about the trend for northward-displaced tropical waves moving off African coast, stronger West African Monsoon (WAM) and later than usual Cape Verde season this year (as well as every year since 2016).

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1303280663454461953




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1303286549929504768

[jconsor]

Context on active 2020 so far in terms of US landfalls.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1303278545108639744

[MarioProtVI]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

[Steve]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Does ACE matter in 2020?

[ClarCari]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Paulette and Rene are the first two systems to finally develop in Eastern Atlantic area this year. Just because Cabo Verde season is a lil late doesn’t mean it’s not happening . It isn’t unusual to have the first couple of storms “take on for the team” and clear away dry air and shear for the next batch.

[Hammy]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Paulette and Rene are the first two systems to finally develop in Eastern Atlantic area this year. Just because Cabo Verde season is a lil late doesn’t mean it’s not happening . It isn’t unusual to have the first couple of storms “take on for the team” and clear away dry air and shear for the next batch.

Dry air's not the problem--the waves are still coming off too far north to get going quickly. Paulette's been above 15N since 25W and Rene's wave was already close to that when it came off which is starting them out over cooler water.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

This year has and still reminds me of years like 2012 with a bunch of quantity yet little quality. Maybe the lack of a significant El Niño episode in nearly five years is to thank?

[TheStormExpert]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Paulette and Rene are the first two systems to finally develop in Eastern Atlantic area this year. Just because Cabo Verde season is a lil late doesn’t mean it’s not happening . It isn’t unusual to have the first couple of storms “take on for the team” and clear away dry air and shear for the next batch.

Dry air's not the problem--the waves are still coming off too far north to get going quickly. Paulette's been above 15N since 25W and Rene's wave was already close to that when it came off which is starting them out over cooler water.

True. This next wave will be a test to see if this is the case or not.

[toad strangler]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

yawn who cares about ACE. I mean I guess there are those who do in the met field but it's a huge yawn for me. Already THREE hurricane strikes on the CONUS. 2020 is epic no matter what happens here on out and we have a LONG way to go.

[ClarCari]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Paulette and Rene are the first two systems to finally develop in Eastern Atlantic area this year. Just because Cabo Verde season is a lil late doesn’t mean it’s not happening . It isn’t unusual to have the first couple of storms “take on for the team” and clear away dry air and shear for the next batch.

Dry air's not the problem--the waves are still coming off too far north to get going quickly. Paulette's been above 15N since 25W and Rene's wave was already close to that when it came off which is starting them out over cooler water.

Ooo I know it isn’t, I just meant it’s one of those things the first round of waves helps clear up. My other point about the shear is kinda what you’re saying. The waves that go in direction of unfavorable shear and cooler waters can in some ways deflect or prevent the next waves from heading into that same directions and into more favorable areas.

[USTropics]

Quick side tangent, pretty amazing to see as the sun goes down:

A large cutoff low spinning over the Midwest is currently creating snow in some states
Devastating wildfires are occurring up the entire Pacific coast
Texas is finally going to get some rain

[tolakram]

This was made back in 2017 but still applies.

[galaxy401]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Every time a couple storms go through a rough period, the cancelling calls come out. Let's see if those calls stick if Paulette and Rene start to organize and become hurricanes.

[tolakram]

Red dot to put aprox where we are now.

[shiny-pebble]

Red dot to put aprox where we are now.

Could be right on time if we get that long tracker from the wave in Africa.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Future Sally is the best bet for a massive ACE producer. Models have been in decent agreement for a long-tracking hurricane, and it’ll avoid the problems Paulette and Rene has by exiting at a much lower latitude. Speaking of those two, there’s still a chance of Paulette restrengthening after 5 days, and Rene still has 48-60 hours to get its act together.

If things go well for Paulette in 5-8 days and Rene in the next 2.5 days, and if Sally’s future is as bright as it appears, I estimate we could get roughly 20, 10, and 40 ACE respectively from those three storms, nearly tripling 2020’s ACE total. That, and the wave train is showing no signs of stopping on the models, giving 2020 more chances for big ACE makers in September.

Also, about that 2016 comparison, don’t forget that September ‘16 finished with Hurricane Matthew, which became one of only a handful of storms to exceed 50 ACE. A less-than-impressive middle of September doesn’t mean we can’t see massive ACE producers in late September or October.

[EquusStorm]

Also October 2016 produced more ACE than the rest of the season if I recall. Ended with three straight majors. Definitely could still happen especially if we get in a more favorable MJO around the usual big WCarib hurricane time. Waters extremely warm there.