Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

Once again the 18z GFS seems to have stopped rolling in on Tropical Tidbits near day 10. Anyone else having this problem again?

Yep, stuck at 222 hours.

Same, is it a Tropical Tidbits thing or do other sites fully load the run?

[Spacecoast]

Once again the 18z GFS seems to have stopped rolling in on Tropical Tidbits near day 10. Anyone else having this problem again?

Try Pivot weather:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850hvv&rh=2020082912&fh=loop&r=watl&dpdt=&mc=

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Once again the 18z GFS seems to have stopped rolling in on Tropical Tidbits near day 10. Anyone else having this problem again?

Same here, but the storm looks to be recurving.

[gatorcane]

You can get the GFS model plots directly from NCEP’s site:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidanc ... C&ps=area#

[TheStormExpert]

You can get the GFS model plots directly from NCEP’s site:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidanc ... C&ps=area#

Thanks! Looks like a quick recurve east of The Bahamas and U.S., likely a threat to Bermuda.

[cheezyWXguy]

Takeaways I’m getting from these model runs:
1. High intensity potential
2.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[aspen]

Up to 20/80. They might as well give this an invest tag.

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS Gen probability = 64% Fourteen members meet TS/TD criteria, down 1 (12z was fifteen members)

Details forHours 0-144

[gatorcane]

You can get the GFS model plots directly from NCEP’s site:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidanc ... C&ps=area#

Thanks! Looks like a quick recurve east of The Bahamas and U.S., likely a threat to Bermuda.

Not the GFS ensembles:

[USTropics]

It's the same AEW for this thread, GFS decides Rene will last the entire run which has implications on track and ridging (and also would be a record for longest lived system in the Atlantic if it were to actually materialize).



Lots of variables which creates chaos run to run. Ensembles as always offer the best guidance.

[SFLcane]

Again very impressive wave and far south.

[Blown Away]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

I’m rooting for this wave to develop on the African coast...

[SFLcane]

You can get the GFS model plots directly from NCEP’s site:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidanc ... C&ps=area#

Thanks! Looks like a quick recurve east of The Bahamas and U.S., likely a threat to Bermuda.

Not the GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/FKzRLZXJ/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-eatl-fh72-234.gif

Very similar GFS/P

[aspen]

It's the same AEW for this thread, GFS decides Rene will last the entire run which has implications on track and ridging (and also would be a record for longest lived system in the Atlantic if it were to actually materialize).

https://i.ibb.co/KqpKRv8/GFS-Energy-Tropical-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif

Lots of variables which creates chaos run to run. Ensembles as always offer the best guidance.

That’s a much more straightforward run than last time: the second system is barely there, and most of 95L becomes one big long-tracking ACE monster with a typical Cape Verde path similar to Jose.

[DestinHurricane]

18Z operational GFS has an unlikely interaction with Rene that brings future Sally or Teddy OTS. The ensembles are in good agreement with a lowrider towards the caribbean. I would lean towards ensembles here. And GEFS Para as well as EPS show the same track towards the caribbean. Ensembles are in good consensus about the future track. The biggest variable is interaction with Rene and how big a weakness Rene and Paulette leave.

[TheStormExpert]

You can get the GFS model plots directly from NCEP’s site:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidanc ... C&ps=area#

Thanks! Looks like a quick recurve east of The Bahamas and U.S., likely a threat to Bermuda.

Not the GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/FKzRLZXJ/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-eatl-fh72-234.gif

Happy Hour GFS still lives up to its name!

[supercane4867]

Long range GFS in the MDR always underestimate the ridge. I can’t remember one single scenario that it didn’t.

[gatorcane]

The GFS parallel has nothing but a trough heading west through hour 150 while another area heads NW. Not used to seeing the parallel the least bullish of the models. Saved animation below:

[TheStormExpert]

This wave future 95L will be the ultimate test to see if it can become a big ACE producer and a major hurricane as Paulette and Rene aren’t looking too great tonight. So far the ACE this season to date with the 17/5/1 are less than that of which Dorian alone produced last season if that puts things into perspective.