Texas Fall 2020

[starsfan65]

Looks like rain chances are coming down east of i35 too. Most of the rain action looks to stay out west

that is just east of I-35.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like rain chances are coming down east of i35 too. Most of the rain action looks to stay out west

that is just east of I-35.

I’m not sure I follow. Outside of maybe half a county east of i35, rain totals drop off sharply. Most of the rain stays west of there according to model guidance

[gpsnowman]

I happen to be off on Tuesday. Who's up for some front tracking?

This did not age well.

[Brent]

Looks like rain chances are coming down east of i35 too. Most of the rain action looks to stay out west

that is just east of I-35.

I’m not sure I follow. Outside of maybe half a county east of i35, rain totals drop off sharply. Most of the rain stays west of there according to model guidance

Yeah I'm a little confused about that I figured with the slower fropa vs plowing through and warmer temps the rain would spread more east?

So we get neither cool air or heavy rain

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty early heavy snow over 12” forecasted for at family cabin outside of Westcliffe, CO. My parents are there so hopefully I’ll be able to share some good pics. 3-4” of rain forecasted here and looks like lows might go into the 50s. I love cold weather but I’ll take the rain over it any day.

[TexasF6]

Cold front is hailing tail on texmesonet radar!!! 25+mph winds behind it!!!

[TexasF6]

Cold front is hauling tail on texmesonet radar!!! 25+mph winds behind it!!!

[Cpv17]

Too much cloud cover for anything significant to build up today across SETX. Temps in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Picked up .2” off some steady light rain that lasted for about 3 hours.

[Ralph's Weather]

Strong storms in the Tyler area with heavy Rain and the airport report 47 mph gust.

[starsfan65]

Cold front is hauling tail on texmesonet radar!!! 25+mph winds behind it!!!

When is the front going to slow down?

[TexasF6]

Never I hope!!!!

Cold front is hauling tail on texmesonet radar!!! 25+mph winds behind it!!!

When is the front going to slow down?

[Brent]

Never I hope!!!!

When is the front going to slow down?

Probably right before DFW basically what the short range models all show

I guess we should hug the 3km NAM with some good rains tomorrow night and Thursday would be cooler but the front still isn't nearly as drastic

[starsfan65]

Never I hope!!!!

When is the front going to slow down?

Probably right before DFW basically what the short range models all show

It better not slow down before it gets here.

[bubba hotep]

Nearly 50F temp drops in the Panhandle!

[Cerlin]

Front has moved into Norman...it got cold...hoping it keeps going and gives DFW some cold!

[Brent]

Come on 3km NAM

Tomorrow is approaching 90 btw in the metro

[starsfan65]

Come on 3km NAM

Tomorrow is approaching 90 btw in the metro

https://i.ibb.co/zNJR6NS/nam3km-T2m-scus-47.png

90?

[Brent]

Come on 3km NAM

Tomorrow is approaching 90 btw in the metro

https://i.ibb.co/zNJR6NS/nam3km-T2m-scus-47.png

90?

Yeah it's gonna be basically Thursday if it does cool off probably

[weatherdude1108]

Drought to deluge.



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0724
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2020

Areas affected...Portions of Northwest TX...Edwards Plateau/TX
Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090900Z - 091500Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will become likely this morning across
portions of northwest TX and especially the Edwards Plateau and TX
Hill Country as very heavy showers and thunderstorms become
increasingly concentrated over the region. Some of the runoff and
flash flooding may locally be quite significant.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 satellite imagery is showing an
expansion of cooling convective tops associated with very heavy
showers and thunderstorms across portions of northwest TX, and
especially the Edwards Plateau and adjacent areas of the TX Hill
Country. The convection is focusing along and adjacent to a
slow-moving cold front that extends southwest across the TX Big
Bend and Rio Grande River to the southwest of a wave of low
pressure that is lifting up across the Edwards Plateau. The
activity is also focusing northeast of this wave of low pressure
up across much of central TX in vicinity of a quasi-stationary
front where there is a substantial amount of moisture and
instability pooling along it.

PWs across the region have increased to as much as 2.0 to 2.25
inches across the TX Hill Country, with MLCAPE values of 1000 to
2000 j/kg, and a southeast low-level jet of as much as 30 kts.
This subtle increase in low-level inflow over the last few hours
has been favoring an expansion of convective bands across areas of
south-central TX which has been lifting generally northwest toward
the TX Hill Country and out ahead of the wave of low pressure.
Meanwhile, a more concentrated area of low-level
convergence/forcing is noted near the low center and along the
front extending to the northeast which has been allowing
convection across this area to become more concentrated over the
last couple of hours.

Over the next several hours, the expectation is for a couple of
shortwave impulses to eject northeast across the Rio Grande and up
across the Edwards Plateau/TX Hill Country. This coupled with with
gradually improving large-scale upper-level divergence ahead of a
deep trough over the Four Corners region should work in tandem
with the frontal zone and pooling of moderately strong
thermodynamics for expanding areas of very heavy convective
rainfall in addition to what has already occurred.

The latest Max-of-Max (MOM) rainfall tool used to assess the
latest HRRR and HREF suite of guidance suggests sufficient
moisture, lift and instability for rainfall rates to exceed 3
inches/hr locally going through the mid-morning hours, with some
storm total rainfall amounts from these CAM models of as much as 5
to 8+ inches going through 15Z (10AM CDT). Much of this will be
made possible by not only the extreme rainfall rates, but also
relatively slow cell-motions, and localized potential for training
cells.

Flash flooding will be likely this morning across the greater
Edwards Plateau and TX Hill Country vicinity given the expected
rainfall totals, and some of the runoff and flash flooding could
be locally quite significant. This situation will continue to be
closely monitored.

Orrison

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/ ... 24&yr=2020

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down into the mid 50s this morning!