2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Steve]

New Levi within the hour. I haven’t watched it yet. Indications are season will stay busy I’m sure.

https://youtu.be/UXK8nfRRu-4

[AxaltaRacing24]

there is a chance that all 3 of these storms become hurricanes, and a very good chance that at least 2 end up doing so...

let's not cancel the season because two storms aren't blowing up into majors right off the bat.

[toad strangler]

there is a chance that all 3 of these storms become hurricanes, and a very good chance that at least 2 end up doing so...

let's not cancel the season because two storms aren't blowing up into majors right off the bat.

This season is not cancelable anymore and hasn’t been for awhile now. That ship sailed with Laura, Isaias, and Hanna.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Don’t start please.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s September 8, two days from the peak and yet we still have struggling storms (especially Rene which apparently has “favorable conditions” ahead and yet it looks absolute trash right now) and extremely poor model guidance on everything. We should’ve had at least some sort of system gearing up to rack up ACE and so far we have seen none. If we don’t get strong storms soon we will fall below average in ACE and then the chances of those high ACE forecasts (>160) busting increase significantly — 2020 needs at least one or two of them to meet the lower expectations. If this trend continues something like September 2016 (weak, sheared storms most of the month) is quite possible especially since ULLs seem to be drifting near the MDR similar to 2016.

Don’t start please.

Well he’s got a point!

So far the ACE this season to date with the 17/5/1 are less than that of which Dorian alone produced last season if that puts things into perspective.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1303443150225256449

[CyclonicFury]

ACE is a good metric for assessing how intense a hurricane season is. However, it is a bad metric for assessing how damaging or memorable a season is.

2020 is running well behind most of the 200+ ACE seasons through this date (except for maybe 1961). However, ACE should increase quickly over the next 2 weeks, though the exact amount it increases by will depend on how strong the storms get. 2020 likely will fall below average in ACE for a brief time. But does that mean the season is a "bust" or "canceled"? Absolutely not. We've already seen many landfalling storms and hurricanes this season, and there could still potentially be more. I'd expect 2020 to have an above average number of hurricanes and majors (and potentially an above average ACE as well, though 200 ACE is looking less likely without an intense burst of major hurricanes in the near future).

[Hammy]

Interesting to note that we have not had a single hurricane this year east of 70W. Aside from years that had low hurricane counts (or none up to this point) I'm trying to remember a year that was the case through the peak. Obviously this doesn't bode well for land but it raises the question as to whether the current setup is even favorable for a long-tracking major in the first place.

In fact the ITCZ and monsoon trough being so far north in the first place over the last several seasons raises questions as to exactly what's been going on with the overall Atlantic dynamics.

[toad strangler]

ACE is a good metric for assessing how intense a hurricane season is. However, it is a bad metric for assessing how damaging or memorable a season is.

2020 is running well behind most of the 200+ ACE seasons through this date (except for maybe 1961). However, ACE should increase quickly over the next 2 weeks, though the exact amount it increases by will depend on how strong the storms get. 2020 likely will fall below average in ACE for a brief time. But does that mean the season is a "bust" or "canceled"? Absolutely not. We've already seen many landfalling storms and hurricanes this season, and there could still potentially be more. I'd expect 2020 to have an above average number of hurricanes and majors (and potentially an above average ACE as well, though 200 ACE is looking less likely without an intense burst of major hurricanes in the near future).

The fixation on ACE is fascinating to me. But really it was SST's early on. Then it was SAL. Then it was mid level dry air along with SAL. Now it's ACE. YAWN

[CyclonicFury]

ACE is a good metric for assessing how intense a hurricane season is. However, it is a bad metric for assessing how damaging or memorable a season is.

2020 is running well behind most of the 200+ ACE seasons through this date (except for maybe 1961). However, ACE should increase quickly over the next 2 weeks, though the exact amount it increases by will depend on how strong the storms get. 2020 likely will fall below average in ACE for a brief time. But does that mean the season is a "bust" or "canceled"? Absolutely not. We've already seen many landfalling storms and hurricanes this season, and there could still potentially be more. I'd expect 2020 to have an above average number of hurricanes and majors (and potentially an above average ACE as well, though 200 ACE is looking less likely without an intense burst of major hurricanes in the near future).

The fixation on ACE is fascinating to me. But really it was SST's early on. Then it was SAL. Then it was mid level dry air along with SAL. Now it's ACE. YAWN

I think it's fair to say the 200 ACE forecast from CSU is in jeopardy at this point. It's not July anymore. The climatological peak is in two days and ACE isn't even at 50 yet.

[Hammy]

ACE is a good metric for assessing how intense a hurricane season is. However, it is a bad metric for assessing how damaging or memorable a season is.

2020 is running well behind most of the 200+ ACE seasons through this date (except for maybe 1961). However, ACE should increase quickly over the next 2 weeks, though the exact amount it increases by will depend on how strong the storms get. 2020 likely will fall below average in ACE for a brief time. But does that mean the season is a "bust" or "canceled"? Absolutely not. We've already seen many landfalling storms and hurricanes this season, and there could still potentially be more. I'd expect 2020 to have an above average number of hurricanes and majors (and potentially an above average ACE as well, though 200 ACE is looking less likely without an intense burst of major hurricanes in the near future).

The fixation on ACE is fascinating to me. But really it was SST's early on. Then it was SAL. Then it was mid level dry air along with SAL. Now it's ACE. YAWN

ACE is and has been for years been an official statistical determinant of how active and favorable a season is--and is the sole determinant as to what statistically qualifies as a "hyperactive" season, as well as certain numbers (along with number of storms and hurrianes) being a required qualifier as to what counts as an above or below normal season. The number of names used can't alone be used either--for example 2013 had 14 storms but only two Cat 1 hurricanes while the flip side 2014 had only eight, but six were hurricanes (and two majors) and using land impacts is not a good measure of favorable or unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

What I don't understand is why this year is being talked about as if it's inactive because of storms not being strong enough, while 2019 just because of one storm (Dorian) was considered a busy season even into September considering not only did we end with a below number of hurricanes last year, half of them were such for a short time and several storms dissipated over open waters when they were expected to strengthen. We have had five hurricanes including a major so far, which is average to above average, and I have a feeling people would be talking about this as a more active season had there been less total storms.

That being said this year does have a glaring MDR problem that still has yet to resolve itself (something shared with 2005) which is curious and can't be brushed off as just not being there yet considering we're two days from the peak--this is definitely proving to be a highly west-biased season.

[ClarCari]

ACE is a good metric for assessing how intense a hurricane season is. However, it is a bad metric for assessing how damaging or memorable a season is.

2020 is running well behind most of the 200+ ACE seasons through this date (except for maybe 1961). However, ACE should increase quickly over the next 2 weeks, though the exact amount it increases by will depend on how strong the storms get. 2020 likely will fall below average in ACE for a brief time. But does that mean the season is a "bust" or "canceled"? Absolutely not. We've already seen many landfalling storms and hurricanes this season, and there could still potentially be more. I'd expect 2020 to have an above average number of hurricanes and majors (and potentially an above average ACE as well, though 200 ACE is looking less likely without an intense burst of major hurricanes in the near future).

The fixation on ACE is fascinating to me. But really it was SST's early on. Then it was SAL. Then it was mid level dry air along with SAL. Now it's ACE. YAWN

ACE is and has been for years been a statistical determinant of how active and favorable a season is. What I don't understand is that people are talking about how it's low per storm (which it is) yet treated last year, which actually had a slightly below normal number of hurricanes, as extremely busy because of Dorian and Lorenzo, when (despite 19 storms) it would've had close to 2013 numbers if not for literally Dorian making up half of it--and I don't like using land impacts as a statistical determinant, because that has nothing to do with how favorable conditions are as far as activity given 100 miles or so really makes a difference.

But the number of names used can't alone be used either--for example 2013 had 14 storms but only two Cat 1 hurricanes while the flip side 2014 had only eight, but six were hurricanes (and two majors).

That being said this year does have a glaring MDR problem that still has yet to resolve itself (something shared with 2005) which is curious and can't be brushed off as just not being there yet considering we're two days from the peak--this is definitely proving to be a highly west-biased season.

I always thought September 10th was considered the average peak. That means that over the past half century or so some seasons conditions and storms peaked in August, some in later September, and some in October. I never took it to mean that date is some holy date for every single season. That’s not how statistics work.

I think since Cape Verde just started that 2020’s peak could be a bit later than average. The ACE will come my children I’m just scared everyones gonna get more than they asked for

[Steve]

ACE is a good metric for assessing how intense a hurricane season is. However, it is a bad metric for assessing how damaging or memorable a season is.

2020 is running well behind most of the 200+ ACE seasons through this date (except for maybe 1961). However, ACE should increase quickly over the next 2 weeks, though the exact amount it increases by will depend on how strong the storms get. 2020 likely will fall below average in ACE for a brief time. But does that mean the season is a "bust" or "canceled"? Absolutely not. We've already seen many landfalling storms and hurricanes this season, and there could still potentially be more. I'd expect 2020 to have an above average number of hurricanes and majors (and potentially an above average ACE as well, though 200 ACE is looking less likely without an intense burst of major hurricanes in the near future).

The fixation on ACE is fascinating to me. But really it was SST's early on. Then it was SAL. Then it was mid level dry air along with SAL. Now it's ACE. YAWN

I think it's fair to say the 200 ACE forecast from CSU is in jeopardy at this point. It's not July anymore. The climatological peak is in two days and ACE isn't even at 50 yet.

tolakram put it on a graph today. But still, how much does ACE matter if we continue to get late intensifying landfalls? Nothing.

[CyclonicFury]

The fixation on ACE is fascinating to me. But really it was SST's early on. Then it was SAL. Then it was mid level dry air along with SAL. Now it's ACE. YAWN

I think it's fair to say the 200 ACE forecast from CSU is in jeopardy at this point. It's not July anymore. The climatological peak is in two days and ACE isn't even at 50 yet.

tolakram put it on a graph today. But still, how much does ACE matter if we continue to get late intensifying landfalls? Nothing.

ACE is irrelevant to the land impact perspective. But it is not irrelevant to assessing the overall activity of a season from a meteorological perspective.

[Hammy]

The fixation on ACE is fascinating to me. But really it was SST's early on. Then it was SAL. Then it was mid level dry air along with SAL. Now it's ACE. YAWN

ACE is and has been for years been a statistical determinant of how active and favorable a season is. What I don't understand is that people are talking about how it's low per storm (which it is) yet treated last year, which actually had a slightly below normal number of hurricanes, as extremely busy because of Dorian and Lorenzo, when (despite 19 storms) it would've had close to 2013 numbers if not for literally Dorian making up half of it--and I don't like using land impacts as a statistical determinant, because that has nothing to do with how favorable conditions are as far as activity given 100 miles or so really makes a difference.

But the number of names used can't alone be used either--for example 2013 had 14 storms but only two Cat 1 hurricanes while the flip side 2014 had only eight, but six were hurricanes (and two majors).

That being said this year does have a glaring MDR problem that still has yet to resolve itself (something shared with 2005) which is curious and can't be brushed off as just not being there yet considering we're two days from the peak--this is definitely proving to be a highly west-biased season.

I always thought September 10th was considered the average peak. That means that over the past half century or so some seasons conditions and storms peaked in August, some in later September, and some in October. I never took it to mean that date is some holy date for ever single season. That’s not how statistics work.

I think since Cape Verde just started that 2020’s peak could be a bit later than average.

September 10 total cumulative frequency, not the averaged date between a statistical set that occurred earlier or later.

[ClarCari]

ACE is and has been for years been a statistical determinant of how active and favorable a season is. What I don't understand is that people are talking about how it's low per storm (which it is) yet treated last year, which actually had a slightly below normal number of hurricanes, as extremely busy because of Dorian and Lorenzo, when (despite 19 storms) it would've had close to 2013 numbers if not for literally Dorian making up half of it--and I don't like using land impacts as a statistical determinant, because that has nothing to do with how favorable conditions are as far as activity given 100 miles or so really makes a difference.

But the number of names used can't alone be used either--for example 2013 had 14 storms but only two Cat 1 hurricanes while the flip side 2014 had only eight, but six were hurricanes (and two majors).

That being said this year does have a glaring MDR problem that still has yet to resolve itself (something shared with 2005) which is curious and can't be brushed off as just not being there yet considering we're two days from the peak--this is definitely proving to be a highly west-biased season.

I always thought September 10th was considered the average peak. That means that over the past half century or so some seasons conditions and storms peaked in August, some in later September, and some in October. I never took it to mean that date is some holy date for ever single season. That’s not how statistics work.

I think since Cape Verde just started that 2020’s peak could be a bit later than average.

September 10 total cumulative frequency, not the averaged date between a statistical set that occurred earlier or later.

https://i.imgur.com/GB6kpwd.png

Thanks for the clarification!

This still doesn’t say much about individual seasons though. Cumulative scores are still a statistic that isn’t necessarily true for every situation (or in this case season).
For ex., we know for sure the August thru October unquestionably have the peak amount of storms. We know middle/end of august thru beginning of october are peak conditions for the whole Atlantic. However the peak conditions and therefor number of storms can occur anytime in between those. September 10th is smack dab in the middle of that time frame so whether the peak happens before the 10th or after, it’s a safe bet there will be at least 1 named storm active on the date. That doesn’t necessarily mean that date will be peak conditions.
I hope I don’t sound condescending by the way
Taking a statistics class in college just really opened my eyes on how easy it is to misread statistics in situations like these, and I think explaining this may help understand why some hurricane seasons are just different from others......and sooth some nerves about this season

[Hammy]

I always thought September 10th was considered the average peak. That means that over the past half century or so some seasons conditions and storms peaked in August, some in later September, and some in October. I never took it to mean that date is some holy date for ever single season. That’s not how statistics work.

I think since Cape Verde just started that 2020’s peak could be a bit later than average.

September 10 total cumulative frequency, not the averaged date between a statistical set that occurred earlier or later.

https://i.imgur.com/GB6kpwd.png

Thanks for the clarification!

This still doesn’t say much about individual seasons though. Cumulative scores are still a statistic that isn’t necessarily true for every situation (or in this case season).
For ex., we know for sure the August thru October unquestionably have the peak amount of storms. We know middle/end of august thru beginning of october are peak conditions for the whole Atlantic. However the peak conditions and therefor number of storms can occur anytime in between those. September 10th is smack dab in the middle of that time frame so whether the peak happens before the 10th or after, it’s a safe bet there will be at least 1 named storm active on the date. That doesn’t necessarily mean that date will be peak conditions.
I hope I don’t sound condescending by the way
Taking a statistics class in college just really opened my eyes on how easy it is to misread statistics in situations like these, and I think explaining this may help understand why some hurricane seasons are just different from others......and sooth some nerves about this season

No problem, discussion is always good.

The peak very much is a statistic and works more as a probability--in this set of years Sep 10 is essentially the date you're most likely to see a storm on. But I'll agree we've seen quite a few years that have been dead quiet on the peak date--2000 (a year this year has felt similar to in many ways) being a good example. That year saw quite a bit of shear by Aug 24, and aside from long-tracking Alberto we'd only seen three storms (two of which were weak and short lived) and three depressions, no named storms until August, and literally nothing in July--and only one brief storm and depression between August 24 and Sep 11 (and nothing active at all on the 10th) and the real peak was later in the month--there were two hurricanes and a near-hurricane over the next week and then the end of the month saw a Cat 1 and two majors. 1990 saw only one hurricane and one storm develop during September--most of the season's activity was in August, with a second fairly active peak in October, and even 1985 had no storms tracked between Elena's landfall on Sep 3 and Fabian's formation on Sep 15--a week later we had Gloria aiming at the east coast.

[ClarCari]

It’s always been in the back of my mind, but it just really hit me that Cape Verde season in 2020 has already crushed 2005’s non-existent Cape Verde season besides Emily. 2020 started crushing it when Gonzalo formed more east than even Emily did! Whether it looks like it or not, the conditions in the MDR are more favorable this year than in 2005...If you look at the tracks thats season zero percent of them formed eastward where Paulette and Rene, and future 95L are right now. It’s interesting bc 2005 could maybe have been way less disastrous if the systems that eventually turned into Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and Rita started forming out farther east and possibly recurve some. Could have been a totally different narrative...

[Steve]

I think it's fair to say the 200 ACE forecast from CSU is in jeopardy at this point. It's not July anymore. The climatological peak is in two days and ACE isn't even at 50 yet.

tolakram put it on a graph today. But still, how much does ACE matter if we continue to get late intensifying landfalls? Nothing.

ACE is irrelevant to the land impact perspective. But it is not irrelevant to assessing the overall activity of a season from a meteorological perspective.

Sure, I understand that. But it doesn’t really say anything if it’s anomalously low for the activity. It’s just a unit of comparison that wouldn’t begin to tell the story of 2020. Jmo of course but it would be almost like an asterisk.

[TheStormExpert]

tolakram put it on a graph today. But still, how much does ACE matter if we continue to get late intensifying landfalls? Nothing.

ACE is irrelevant to the land impact perspective. But it is not irrelevant to assessing the overall activity of a season from a meteorological perspective.

Sure, I understand that. But it doesn’t really say anything if it’s anomalously low for the activity. It’s just a unit of comparison that wouldn’t begin to tell the story of 2020. Jmo of course but it would be almost like an asterisk.

ACE defines the overall strength of storms in a given season. If the ACE is higher then there have been some intense storms or long tracking intense storms. If the ACE is lower like this season than most of the storms have been weak, short-lived or were not major hurricanes for a long period of time. Laura was only a major hurricane a few days hence why it didn’t really produce much significant ACE, and the other four hurricanes too were short lived or didn’t become hurricanes until the last second before landfall.

[tolakram]

I continue to expect above average named storms, possibly a record, and above average ACE, but not close to a record. 2005 only had high ACE because conditions where near perfect in every way, otherwise ACE would have been limited due to the lack of a Cape Verde season. In my opinion.

I do think ACE is more important than storm count but less important than impacts.