ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Not bad at all. Ought to survive the incoming temporary onslaught of shear.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/752879817866870884/GOES13002020252XgH2KW.jpg

Should have problem becoming a hurricane or even a major hurricane assuming shear plays nicely.

[plasticup]

These are the opinions of a non professional, for official products check out the NHC, NWS and NOAA

My forecast for Paulette

This should strengthen to a hurricane the next 3 days and possibly a major by day 5. The timing of the recurve will be important for Bermuda and the eastern seaboard so here are the chances for these scenarios

Recurve East of Bermuda. 15%
Recurve over or near Bermuda. 20%
Recurve between Bermuda and North Carolina. 55%
Recurve into the Southeastern US 10%

So interest in Bermuda need to watch this

Now TS. 45mph
12hrs. TS. 60mph
24hrs. TS. 70mph
36hrs. C1. 80mph
48hrs. C1. 90mph
72hrs. C2. 105mph
96hrs. C3. 120mph
120hrs. C4. 130mph
144hrs. C4. 135mph
168hrs. C3. 120mph

Weakens as it heads between Bermuda and North Carolina

Your intensity forecast is more than double that of the NHC. You have a Cat 4 where they have a TS. A bold set of predictions!

[aspen]

[cainjamin]

Looks like shear is starting to have more of an effect. Center is more on the southern edge of the CDO than it was this morning.

[wxman57]

Recurve east of Bermuda as a weak TS or remnant low -- 90%

[MarioProtVI]

Recurve east of Bermuda as a weak TS or remnant low -- 90%

I don’t see it dissipating under the shear as it will eventually abate in the long run and the HWRF actually shows this by weakening it to a weak TS before starting RI near the end of the period as it starts to recurve under more favorable conditions.

[Buck]

...PAULETTE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8
Location: 18.7°N 44.3°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[TJRE]

Paula might have some anger management issues atm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=17L&product=ir

[ElectricStorm]

Down to 50kts
17L PAULETTE 200909 0000 18.9N 44.6W ATL 50 998

[DestinHurricane]

Recurve east of Bermuda as a weak TS or remnant low -- 90%

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

That's definitely a possibility but Bermuda shouldn't let their guard down. NHC predicts 70mph peak and it's hard to go against the NHC.

Reminder to anyone in Bermuda and elsewhere that posts in this forums are NOT official forecasts, even if they are from a pro met. Please refer to the NHC and NWS products for official forecasts.

[wx98]

Forecast to weaken but strengthen back by day 5:

...PAULETTE IS A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT...
11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8
Location: 19.2°N 45.0°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
————————————————

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

[Hammy]

Models and NHC forecast seems like it's trending towards favoring Paulette being the stronger of the two in the end.

[EquusStorm]

Definitely more interested in Paulette than Rene in the long run. Those subtropics are waaaarm if the forecast upper level conditions come to fruition.

[al78]

NHC forecast now fails to make Paulette a hurricane and barely makes Rene a minimal hurricane. It's the 2020 theme, spawn the storms then shear them apart.

[Buck]

Like her brother, Paulette also had some deep bursts over the center over the early morning hours.

[Florida1118]

NHC forecast now fails to make Paulette a hurricane and barely makes Rene a minimal hurricane. It's the 2020 theme, spawn the storms then shear them apart.

It was never explicitly forecast to be a hurricane at any point thus far, so not sure why it would be a "now fails to"

[cycloneye]

17L PAULETTE 200909 1200 19.5N 45.9W ATL 50 997

[al78]

NHC forecast now fails to make Paulette a hurricane and barely makes Rene a minimal hurricane. It's the 2020 theme, spawn the storms then shear them apart.

It was never explicitly forecast to be a hurricane at any point thus far, so not sure why it would be a "now fails to"

True, the peak forecast was 60 kts, just short, I thought it had once forecast to reach 65 kts. The point still stands that we are still in this regime of spawning storms then ripping them apart before they have a chance to develop properly.

[wx98]

A loose comparison to Paulette would be Leslie from 2012. Although it was a little further south and made a sharper north turn near the islands, it struggled for days in marginal conditions before finally making Cat 1 going toward Bermuda. It missed Bermuda to the east ultimately.

[mitchell]

The 6z GFS and GFS parallel BOTH show a major Hurricane near Bermuda on Sunday the 20th, however the storm is from a different origin for each model.

for the GFS-Para the major hurricane near Bermuda is Paulette
for the GFS the major hurricane near Bermuda is future Sally

Interesting...to me anyway...two related models having the solution of a major hurricane near Bermuda but from different origins.