Disturbance over The Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[NDG]

I have been watching the models the last couple of days show possible weak development from a disturbance to the south of 94L traveling westward towards the northern Bahamas and FL this weekend into the eastern GOM/north FL early next week. Yesterday's 06z GFS showed it developing in the northern GOM but since then it has not shown it any more but the GFS-Para, GEFS-Para along with some members of the EPS, GEPS show possible weak development.
All models show fairly good UL environment in the NE GOM/FL this weekend into early next week so I think it may have a chance to develop depending where a vorticity tries to develop. The Euro actually closes off a circulation and moves it very little through day 10 but keeps it weak.
So while we watch the CV storms far away over the next few days this will be a system to watch close to home for possible development.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a developing area of vorticity and broad circ in the eastern Gulf this morning.


as well as the vorticity from the NW carrib heading towards the eastern gulf.


I would imagine we are going to have to change the title of this thread. I was going to make a thread later today for the eastern Gulf situation if it persists this trend..

[NDG]

There is a developing area of vorticity and broad circ in the eastern Gulf this morning.


as well as the vorticity from the NW carrib heading towards the eastern gulf.


I would imagine we are going to have to change the title of this thread. I was going to make a thread later today for the eastern Gulf situation if it persists this trend..

No need to change the title of this thread. The area that I am talking about is south of 94L which models show it moving west towards FL and the eastern GOM early next week.
The current vortices in the NW Carib and eastern gulf might get a thread of their own as models show those keeping moving west towards the western GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a developing area of vorticity and broad circ in the eastern Gulf this morning.


as well as the vorticity from the NW carrib heading towards the eastern gulf.


I would imagine we are going to have to change the title of this thread. I was going to make a thread later today for the eastern Gulf situation if it persists this trend..

No need to change the title of this thread. The area that I am talking about is south of 94L which models show it moving west towards FL and the eastern GOM early next week.
The current vortices in the NW Carib and eastern gulf might get a thread of their own as models show those keeping moving west towards the western GOM.

The area your talking about is still apart of the same trough that makes up 94L. was determined in the 94L model thread.

also ICON seemingly combines the lower half of the 94L trough the eastern gulf low stalls and the area of vorticity from NW carib all come together in the eastern gulf.

...
either way this whole area is going to be a convoluted mess for the next few days.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I guess it is as good a time as any to make a thread about this potential. I said in the other 94L thread that there is sufficuent model support building about possible Eastern GOM development. It will be very interesting monitoring this pptential his weekend. So much activity to watch in the tropics. It is the peak the climatological peak now and in 2020, it has been a year to remember and then some. We still quite a lot of season still to come!!

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, I guess it is as good a time as any to make a thread about this potential. I said in the other 94L thread that there is sufficuent model support building about possible Eastern GOM development. It will be very interesting monitoring this pptential his weekend. So much activity to watch in the tropics. It is the peak the climatological peak now and in 2020, it has been a year to remember and then some. We still quite a lot of season still to come!!

Sometimes I wish we could put a small picture in the Thread title..

instead of saying "eastern gulf, Florida and SW atlantic mess" lol

[TallyTracker]

The location and time of year of the GFS prediction remind me of Tammy 2005 and Julia 2016 (I believe). Both formed close to the central Florida coast before drifting inland around NE FL and SE Georgia.

Edit: GFS not Euro was the map I was looking at.

[northjaxpro]

The location and time of year of the Euro prediction remind me of Tammy 2005 and Julia 2016 (I believe). Both formed close to the central Florida coast before drifting inland around NE FL and SE Georgia.

Yes, Julia' s vorticity came ashore in Brevard County and came right up along I-95 and staddled inland just from the coast. It developed quickly into a Tropical Storm in Saint Johns County, then the center of Julia passed directly over my home area of North Jax. I received sustained wind 46 with gust to 57 mph, and 1006 mb pressure as the cyclone passed quickly over Jax back in Sept 2016.

[NDG]

There is a developing area of vorticity and broad circ in the eastern Gulf this morning.


as well as the area of vorticity from the NW carib heading towards the eastern gulf.


I would imagine we are going to have to change the title of this thread. I was going to make a thread later today for the eastern Gulf situation if it persists this trend..

No need to change the title of this thread. The area that I am talking about is south of 94L which models show it moving west towards FL and the eastern GOM early next week.
The current vortices in the NW Carib and eastern gulf might get a thread of their own as models show those keeping moving west towards the western GOM.

The area your talking about is still apart of the same trough that makes up 94L. was determined in the 94L model thread.

also ICON seemingly combines the lower half of the 94L trough the eastern gulf low stalls and the area of vorticity from NW carib all come together in the eastern gulf.

...
either way this whole area is going to be a convoluted mess for the next few days.

To me they are all three different systems, if the NHC would had thought the ML disturbance to the south of 94L is part of it they would had highlighted possible development from the Carolinas down to the NE GOM with 94L.

The current area of vorticity over the eastern GOM, which may deserve its own thread, should continue moving westward as ridging to its north continues to build over the next couple of days with not much model support for development at least at this time, in the ohter had the ML disturbance to the south of 94L will continue moving westward towards FL/eastern GOM through early next week.

[Aric Dunn]

No need to change the title of this thread. The area that I am talking about is south of 94L which models show it moving west towards FL and the eastern GOM early next week.
The current vortices in the NW Carib and eastern gulf might get a thread of their own as models show those keeping moving west towards the western GOM.

The area your talking about is still apart of the same trough that makes up 94L. was determined in the 94L model thread.

also ICON seemingly combines the lower half of the 94L trough the eastern gulf low stalls and the area of vorticity from NW carib all come together in the eastern gulf.

...
either way this whole area is going to be a convoluted mess for the next few days.

To me they are all three different systems, if the NHC would had thought the ML disturbance to the south of 94L is part of it they would had highlighted possible development from the Carolinas down to the NE GOM with 94L.

The current area of vorticity over the eastern GOM, which may deserve its own thread, should continue moving westward as ridging to its north continues to build over the next couple of days with not much model support for development at least at this time, in the ohter had the ML disturbance to the south of 94L will continue moving westward towards FL/eastern GOM through early next week.

https://i.imgur.com/eO3VtHM.gif

Just going to have to wait and see how it start plays out.

[NDG]

The area your talking about is still apart of the same trough that makes up 94L. was determined in the 94L model thread.

also ICON seemingly combines the lower half of the 94L trough the eastern gulf low stalls and the vorticity from NW carib all come together in the eastern gulf.

...
either way this whole area is going to be a convoluted mess for the next few days.

To me they are all three different systems, if the NHC would had thought the ML disturbance to the south of 94L is part of it they would had highlighted possible development from the Carolinas down to the NE GOM with 94L.

The current area of vorticity over the eastern GOM, which may deserve its own thread, should continue moving westward as ridging to its north continues to build over the next couple of days with not much model support for development at least at this time, in the ohter had the ML disturbance to the south of 94L will continue moving westward towards FL/eastern GOM through early next week.

https://i.imgur.com/eO3VtHM.gif

Just going to have to wait and see how it start plays out.

BTW, looking at the 06z ICON it develops the current area of vorticity over the eastern GOM by this Friday not the area that this thread is all about that the other models show possible development from.

[northjaxpro]

Conditions look rather decent as there is a relatively light wind shear of only 10 KT across the region from east of the Bahamas to across Florida and into the Eastern GOM.

So, I could seè potential development, mainly in the Eastern GOM in the next few days.

[StPeteMike]

Definitely rotation just off the coast of Pinellas County, clearly visible in radar out of the Tampa Bay Area. Will be something to watch to see if convection persists after the normal pop up storms later today.

[SFLcane]

[NDG]

Definitely rotation just off the coast of Pinellas County, clearly visible in radar out of the Tampa Bay Area. Will be something to watch to see if convection persists after the normal pop up storms later today.

This thread is not about the current area of disturbance in the eastern GOM, like I have said perhaps the area of vorticity you are talking about deserves its own thread.

[SFLcane]

Kinda surprised this is not highlighted by the NHC.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s in a low shear environment unlike Paulette and to a lesser extent Rene. Levi said last night in his video discussion that this might have a better chance at spiking up than 94L did once in goes through the FL Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico the next few days.

[sma10]

Tbh, it doesn't look half bad right now. Seems to be taking on a more rounded shape

[Emmett_Brown]

Yeah, this area is starting to look a bit more suspicious. No obvious circulation center yet, but there is definitely some convergence happening, and shear looks low.

[ronjon]

Yeah, this area is starting to look a bit more suspicious. No obvious circulation center yet, but there is definitely some convergence happening, and shear looks low.

Looks like there's at least midlevel vorticity with it now. NWS Tampa noted this feature as an inverted trough moving west over the peninsula further enhancing our rather wet September rainy season this weekend. Would not surprise me to get a weak TD or TS spin up either prior to moving into the peninsula or exiting into the NE GOM. Btw I've received about 6 inches of rain the last 4 days here in Hernando County.